What Do the Four ’I’s of US Midterms Mean for India

Document Details

AUTHOR	Abhishek Kadiyala
DATE	November 2, 2026
CATEGORIES	Geostrategy United States US Congress

If Democrats win a Congressional majority on 3 November, their legislative agenda is likely to centre on the four ’I’s of inflation, institutional mistrust, the Iran war and immigration. These issues have some bipartisan pull. That matters because overriding President Trump’s promised vetoes needs two-thirds of both chambers, a bar analysts doubt Democrats can clear.

Explore our Mid-term Observer at dcdossier.github.io/Generational-Mid-terms.

Inflation: Tariffs and Russian Oil

Inflation is the top concern, with some 84% of voters calling the cost of living one of their most important issues. House Democratic Leader Hakeem Jeffries says the party is united on undoing the tariffs and restoring healthcare tax credits.

80% of Americans expect tariffs to raise prices.

48% favour cutting tariffs on Indian goods under a trade deal, and 12% oppose.

71% report a negative impact from gas prices on household finances. While the Iran war is the primary cause, disruption to Russian energy exports could worsen this further.

Democrats split on the Graham Act, with 36 backing it in the Senate. Under President Biden, Washington wanted India to buy Russian oil to keep prices from rising.

President Trump’s diesel deal with Russia and his 16 October waiver of Graham Act tariffs have drawn criticism at home.

With tariffs unpopular, a Democratic Congress is likely to prefer sanctions as a tool.

152 House Democrats opposed the Graham Act, and their leaders warned of higher prices and wanted sanctions instead. India’s risk could shift from tariffs to sanctions.

Iran War: Energy and Pakistan

Some 64% of voters call the war a top issue, and 86% of Americans say it is bad for the cost of living.

Democrats plan to limit presidential authority over the war.

Passing a War Powers Resolution would be complicated, as the June resolution was widely seen as nonbinding. Senators see denying funds as the more realistic route, including the USD 87.6 billion war funding request, though the Pentagon is already funding the war without it.

Half of India’s crude imports normally pass through Hormuz, as does 90% of its imported LPG. 9 million Indians work in the Gulf and send home about USD 50 billion a year.

The war has strained India’s economy and its diplomatic capital in West Asia.

The war has also complicated India’s access to Chabahar and given Pakistan a global role. The end of the war could reduce that weight and benefit India strategically.

Immigration: The H-1B Debate

Some 45% of voters call immigration and crime a top issue. 56% say deportations have gone too far. ICE divides the parties, but H-1B reform has bipartisan sponsors.

Republicans have traditionally led on immigration, the border and crime. That lead has narrowed, from 15 points to 9 in one CNBC survey.

Democrats have been criticised as too soft on immigration and the border. This cycle they have tried to balance enforcement, the rule of law and human rights.

H-1B reform could offer that balance. Senators Bernie Sanders and Richard Blumenthal back reform, and the AFL-CIO presses for it to protect domestic workers.

The AFL-CIO’s professional arm wants visas allocated by wage rather than the current weighted lottery. Sanders argues a guest worker should never be cheaper than an American worker. One estimate finds weighting by actual pay would cut visas to large outsourcers by 16%.

India accounts for 70% of H-1B approvals, with one fifth of visas going to employees of Indian origin companies. Some 54% of Indian software services exports go to the US, the top market for Indian IT outsourcing. Selection by wage would disadvantage these firms.

45% of Democrats favour more visas for skilled Indian workers, against 27% of Republicans.

Pressure on outsourcing could help Indian students but hurt India’s IT sector.

Institutional Mistrust: The Pakistan Deals

A record 89% of Americans say government corruption is widespread. 66% say President Trump uses the presidency to enrich himself, including 27% of Republicans.

Democrats plan to investigate Trump family finances, including crypto.

Pakistan signed a January memorandum with a World Liberty Financial affiliate. It has no known transactions, but analysts say it bought access.

A bipartisan House bill already seeks sanctions over democracy in Pakistan.

30% of Americans believe foreign governments have too much influence over US institutions right after CEOs, Wealthy Donors, & Large Corporations.

A scandal tying the deals to the White House, tariff policy or other geopolitical decisions could flare up the concerns about foreign influence. Such outcomes make US-Pakistan ties politically uncomfortable for future administrations. For India, that would be an important shift.

To understand the gravitas of these four issues on the US Midterms, refer to our latest Issue brief Takshashila Issue Brief: The 4 ’i’s of US Midterm.