Double Ten, Double Trouble
| AUTHOR | Anushka Saxena |
| DATE | October 12, 2026 |
| CATEGORIES | China Defence Geostrategy Taiwan |
It is that time of the year again, when the President of Taiwan – Lai Ching-te, in this case – makes a speech marking the ‘Double Ten Day’ (the day when the ‘Republic of China’ was established after the fall of the Qing Dynasty on the Mainland), and China retaliates with harsh contempt.
Interestingly, the section in Lai’s 2026 speech that talks about the China challenge, was relatively muted and short. His one-line emphasis remained on China’s military aggression and grey-zone tactics, and the call to mobilise towards nationwide defence preparedness sustained in momentum. But then, Lai pivoted to talking about how defence preparedness is for deterrence and not provocation, while such investment in self-defence is still rooted in a willingness to engage in dialogue. Lai’s administration has embodied this dilemma between an increasingly expanding investment in defence budget and asymmetric military capability, and ever-moderating language over China. In fact, Lai talked more about what the international community should do for the island to prevent it from being usurped by force.
Further, probably for the first time, Lai used the Double Ten speech to talk about the competition between the US and China, and how it must be managed to avoid the spiral of the world into more chaos. Most likely, and rather ironically, the reason for this special narrative appearance is the wave of diplomatic back-and-forth between Washington and Beijing. And both times that Trump has met Xi, Taiwan has either been deemed a “bargaining chip,” or left to chance. There has been no iteration by Washington of a commitment to peace and security in the Taiwan Strait, while Beijing has stayed consistent in reiterating the Taiwan question a red line. Not to mention, Trump’s conception of the economic and security competition with China leads to outcomes like Lai being denied transit visits in the US.
Finally, one notable aspect this year, like last year, was that the Chairperson of the Japan-ROC Diet Members’ Consultative Council, Furuya Keiji, was thanked by name in the speech – a likely result of the enhancing importance the Diet in Tokyo is assigning to the Taiwan issue. In the past, delegations of Japanese Parliamentarians, including from the Council, have been invited both by KMT President Ma Ying-Jeou in 2015 and DPP President Tsai Ing-Wen in 2018. Lai has set the precedent of deeming the Council Chair as important a guest as, say, the king of a full diplomatic ally of the island – Eswatini.