Commentary

Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy

What’s Behind China’s New National Standardization Outline Document?

By Arjun Gargeyas and Megha Pardhi

China’s “Standards 2035” project gained headlines in April 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. October 2021 saw the release of the National Standardization Development (NSD) outline document as the first official document detailing China’s ambitions in the coming decade in the realm of technical standardization processes. The NSD visualizes a standardized system that promotes high-tech innovation and “opening up” of the technology sector, while also leading to high-quality development. The core points covered in the document provide a glimpse into the Chinese state’s strategic approach toward technical standards.

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A Four-Point Action Plan for Quantum Technologies

By Arjun Gargeyas

In the 2020 Budget speech, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the National Mission for Quantum Technologies and Applications (NM-QTA) with a total outlay of ₹8000 crore over five years for strengthening the quantum industry in the country. A Lok Sabha question posed in July 2021 enquired about the status and progress of the mission. The reply that was provided by the minister of state for science and technology, Jitendra Singh, mentioned that the mission had not even received approval yet. Singh also announced that no funds were allocated, disbursed or utilised under NM-QTA during the financial year 2020-21.

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Are Government’s New Schemes For Semiconductors Enough To Make India Atmanirbhar?

By Pranay Kotasthane

the Union Cabinet recently approved a ‘comprehensive programme for the development of a sustainable semiconductor and display ecosystem’. This programme emphasised that India intends to play a more prominent role in the hyper-globalised semiconductor supply chain. Following up on that announcement, the Ministry of Electronics & Information Technology (MeitY) on December 21 notified four specific schemes to reduce India’s dependency on imports and build an ecosystem for the production of semiconductors. On December 30, MeitY released the guidelines for these schemes.

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Advanced Biology Mahek Nankani Advanced Biology Mahek Nankani

Omicron: Clinically milder but potentially deadlier

By Mahek Nankani and Harshit Kukreja

There has been a sudden surge in Covid cases across the country in the past few days. This increase can be attributed to the newest Covid-19 variant: Omicron. Ignorance, misconception, and a delay in response could result in India's even more fatal third wave. With India still reeling from the effects of earlier waves and the economic crisis, a new variant, while less fatal, could turn out to be deadlier.

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Russian energy industry makes new social media connection

By Aditya Pareek and Sapni GK

Russia’s energy industry currently brings in a major chunk of state revenue and is tied to common prosperity and employment in the Russian economy. Although a willingness eventually to phase out hydrocarbons now exists, the idea is to switch to exporting greener sources of energy such as hydrogen instead of just watching business decline.

Read the full article on Asia Times

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Behind Beijng’s proposal to regulate military applications of AI

By Megha Pardhi

China recently submitted a position paper on regulating the military applications of artificial intelligence to the sixth review conference of the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW).The takeaway from this position paper is that countries should debate, discuss, and perhaps eschew the weaponization of AI. By initiating a discussion on regulating military applications of AI, Beijing wants to project itself as a responsible international player.

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Lessons for India From China’s Technical Standardisation Strategy

By Arjun Gargeyas

China recently released the National Standardisation Development (NSD) Outline, which serves as the first major document in the public domain on the standardisation strategy of the state in the coming years. This serves as a potential road map for the Chinese government and provides a glimpse into its intentions of utilising technical standards as an economic and strategic tool to further advance its interests.The standardisation strategy envisioned by the Chinese government can also serve as a model for India to increase its presence in the international technical standards domain. China’s pursuit offers India an opportunity to emulate its neighbour in simultaneously strengthening its domestic standardisation schemes while improving its leverage in international standards developing organisations. The NSD outline document provides India with a few pointers on the path it can take to influence technical standards-setting at the international level.

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Strategic Studies Prakash Menon Strategic Studies Prakash Menon

India’s new CDS will have to decide where the loyalty of the military lies

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

The tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, in a helicopter crash along with 13 others including his wife Madhulika Rawat, his staff, protection party, and the aircrew was shocking. Happening at a time of heightened global and regional geopolitical tensions, it can be a setback to the laudable and long-overdue structural defence reforms initiated in January 2020 by the Narendra Modi government. The reforms were aimed at improving military effectiveness through restructuring measures in two primary domains: civil-military relations and inter-services cooperation. While history will be the ultimate judge of General Rawat’s legacy in both, his role in the changes devised in some aspects of civil-military relations is likely to be the most contentious.

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Strategic Studies Nitin Pai Strategic Studies Nitin Pai

Insurgencies are defeated by democratic politics, not force

The debate over providing Indian armed forces with special powers to carry out domestic counter-insurgency operations has been rejoined following the terrible killings at Oting, Nagaland. It is an important debate, not only to hold state authorities accountable for their actions, but also, more fundamentally, to review how the democratic Indian republic holds together its mind-bogglingly diverse population. Yet, decades after the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) was legislated and invoked, we are no closer to a reconciliation of objectives, a constitutionally defendable consensus, or even a fresh new approach to handling the problem. Since many of the political ingredients of grievance, disaffection and separatism are still out there, the AFSPA has become a lightning rod for popular opposition to the way the Indian republic fights insurgencies, and in the extreme, to the republic itself. We can no longer afford to let such sore wounds fester and proliferate.

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Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Career Impact Bonds? Financing upskilling to fill the world’s vacancies

By Sridhar Krishna

he developed world is aging as life expectancy rises and birth rates fall. India has a different problem. With 18 million Indians turning 18 every year and with over 100 million Indians being surplus in the agricultural sector, 20 million Indians will need jobs each year. In contrast, India creates less than two million jobs a year. Can active promotion of emigration of Indians to the developed world be a solution to this problem? Read the full article here.

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In Software-obsessed India, Hardware Finally Gets Place in the Sun

By Pranay Kotasthane and Arjun Gargeyas

The Union Cabinet, on 15th December, approved a much-awaited 'comprehensive program for the development of a sustainable semiconductor and display ecosystem'. Holding up a silicon wafer and a semiconductor chip, Ashwini Vaishnav, the Minister of Communications and Electronics & Information Technology, outlined the focus areas in a press briefing that's sure to garner attention from major global semiconductor firms. The program will cost the government ₹76,000 crores over six years. The government expects an overall investment of ₹170,000 crores in return. There are five reasons to like the program announced by the minister.

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Quantum computing: China ahead, US plays catch-up

The shadow of geopolitical competition with China looms large over the recent cooperation agreement on Quantum Science and Technology between Australia and the US. The joint statement identifies Quantum technologies as a “critical emerging technology” while reiterating commitment to “democratic institutions” and “to an open, inclusive and resilient Indo-Pacific region.” The statement also says that the two sides resolve to protect sensitive technologies with implications for national security, a reference to the alleged theft of IP and tech espionage by China.

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Strategic Studies Prakash Menon Strategic Studies Prakash Menon

Delay in appointing new CDS after Gen. Rawat—Is it about passing the loyalty test?

The sudden and tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, along with twelve others in a helicopter crash is a mortal blow by the hand of fate. Ironically, the CDS’ demise also reverberates across the fate of some senior military leaders who might find themselves being either advantaged or disadvantaged in terms of career progression. Depending on whosoever among the eligible is appointed, a chain reaction along the military hierarchy could change individual fates. Eligibility for the CDS post has been shaped to provide the political leadership to select from a fairly wide range of choices in two domains— serving and retired. The external choice is restricted to former Chiefs not above the age of sixty-five. The internal choice can even be a three-star. So technically, all serving three or four stars are eligible. This is as wide a choice as can be. So, till the announcement of the appointment is made, speculation and conspiracy theories can be expected to run riot.

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Indo-Pacific Studies, High-Tech Geopolitics Pranay Kotasthane Indo-Pacific Studies, High-Tech Geopolitics Pranay Kotasthane

Three Reasons Why China’s Tech Prowess is Overhyped

By Arjun Gargeyas

If one were to judge the technological prowess of a nation-state on the basis of daily news, China comes across as heads and shoulders above the rest. Hardly any day passes by without reports reminding us that China is well on its path to creating a self-reliant technology industry. While China’s technological progress is quite real, I want to list three caveats to make you recalibrate exponential growth projections and over-optimistic predictions about China’s tech ecosystem.

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The Implications of Mutual Assured Vulnerability for the Indo-Pacific Region

China’s nuclear modernisation might establish stability in the US-China nuclear dyad. However, it would have a cascading effect on the nuclear and conventional competition in the Indo-Pacific region

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undertaken the qualitative and quantitative modernisation of its nuclear arsenal. In the past two years, China has constructed around 250-300 missile silos, tested a new hypersonic missile system, fielded at least two brigades of its road-mobile DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), handed over two Jin-class submarines to the People’s Liberation Army — one of which (Changzheng 18) was commissioned to enter service in April 2021, and continued deploying more road-mobile DF-31 AG launchers and dual-use DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs).

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Technology will be at the Forefront of Biden's Summit for Democracy

By Arjun Gargeyas

The Summit is not just about democracy. It signals the intent of the Biden administration to unite the world’s democracies for protection of individual liberties. This brings us to the area of technology which is now at the heart of protecting democratic values. There is a need for global consensus among all democratic states to arrive at a common technology governance framework that is in line with the democratic rights of citizens. The summit will be a platform for states to find the right balance of governance with respect to regulation and freedom in the technology sphere. The future of multilateralism lies in the creation of need-based coalitions focusing on specific areas of technology cooperation.

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Sydney Dialogue Pointed the Need for Global Tech Governance

By Arjun Gargeyas

The month of November saw the world’s first-ever conference dedicated to emerging and critical technologies. The Sydney Dialogue, a brainchild of the Australian Strategic Policy Institute (ASPI), was held virtually from November 17-19.The presence of and the delivery of keynote addresses from key political leaders emphasized the criticality of the dialogue. In the current digital and information age, emerging technologies have become an intrinsic part of everybody’s lives as well as tools of statecraft. There was a common vision echoed throughout the discussions: The design, deployment, and usage of these technologies need effective regulations to minimize the harms and maximize the benefits that critical and emerging technologies have to offer.

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The Price of the Question - Expectations from the India-Russia Summit

The Russian-Indian summit meeting, scheduled for December 6 in Delhi, is designed to breathe new life into the strategic partnership between Moscow and Delhi. The long list of issues that have accumulated for discussion after the forced pause in personal communication between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi caused by the coronavirus pandemic is not limited to defence purchases and the joint production of weapons.

Read the full article in Russian on Kommersant.ru

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High-Tech Geopolitics Nitin Pai High-Tech Geopolitics Nitin Pai

The contest to create the web's third generation has intensified

There are now three broad visions for the future of the internet. The first is a transformation into what Tim Berners-Lee calls “Web 3.0", a network that understands natural language and, depending on who you ask, will be open and ubiquitous, allow users to take back control from corporations and governments, and include billions of Things like sensors, robots and kitchen sinks. This vision is promoted by veterans and purists who believe that Big Tech’s dominance undermines open protocols that enable the internet, and also by many in the tech community who resent the market power of Google, Meta, Apple and Amazon. For their part, the world’s biggest tech companies see that it will be harder to grow at the giddy rates they are used to, and sprawling across various sectors can only take them so far. That’s why Mark Zuckerberg is promoting the second vision, that of a “metaverse", an immersive 3-D virtual reality world where everyone will have to wear goggles to plug in. Beyond Meta (previously Facebook), Microsoft, Roblox and many other companies are throwing their weight behind this vision while trying to get to the head of the queue.

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