Needed: Intelligent act to regulate AI

The 41st General Conference of the United Nations Educational, Scientific and Cultural Organization (UNESCO) concluded on 24 November 2021 with a major step on the global development of norms on the use and regulation of Artificial Intelligence (AI).193 member states of UNESCO signed and adopted the draft AI Ethics Recommendation. It can be touted as the first globally accepted normative standard-setting instrument in the realm of AI. The voluntary, non-binding commitment is a major point of cooperation between States and leaders in identifying principles of ethics in the regulation AI systems that find wide application in today’s world.

Omicron Scare - Why International Travel Ban Will Do India More Harm than Good

The possibility of another disastrous wave in the country has increased with the discovery of a new SARS-CoV-2 variant, Omicron, and two such cases being detected in Karnataka. This has come along with the Union government issuing new travel guidelines on November 30. A likelihood of the country putting a partial or complete international travel ban is doing the rounds. Recently, Delhi Chief Minister Arvind Kejriwal issued a statement urging the government to not further delay the curbs on international flights. But contrary to popular belief, an immediate air travel ban can do more harm than good. Moreover, the question arises: is it economically feasible, logically valid and morally correct? 

India Needs a 20-Year Semiconductor Strategy

To succeed in semiconductor manfacturing, it is essential to reflect on the difference between being able to manufacture one line of chips and achieving semiconductor self-sufficiency or even becoming a key manufacturer. The current discourse masks this difference. The dominant narrative suggests that India is in a do or die situation, one in which building a fab now implies the elimination of critical strategic vulnerabilities. In contrast, another failure means India is resigned to a position of weakness in the information age. This understanding is misplaced. Getting one fab going will not make India a key manufacturer. We will still be dependent on manufacturing equipment, designs, and chips manufactured outside India. India needs to drop the dream of swadeshi semiconductors. Instead, it should aim to become a key player in a trusted, plurilateral semiconductor ecosystem that keeps key adversaries out. In our view, at least five specific parts of the puzzle need to fall in place.

Iran-Pakistan Rivalry In Afghanistan Works for India

The Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan held in New Delhi on November 10 marks India’s re-entry into the contested landscape of Af-Pak geopolitics. However, due to the regional states’ differing focus on the terrorism threat, refugee crisis, regional stability etc, Indian concerns about the repercussions of ISI activities in Afghanistan will likely remain a low priority for most regional powers, except Iran. It’s Iran that has both the interest and resources to resist Pakistan’s domination in Afghanistan.

How to prevent accidental wars? Strongmen Putin, Xi, Modi can be triggers

The virtual meeting on 15 November between Presidents Joe Biden of the US and Xi Jinping of China could hopefully be the forerunner to a dialogue process that was so far missing in action. The relationship had turned openly hostile, and the drift towards armed conflict due to misjudgement and miscommunication needed repair. Some political and military leaders had been warning of the risk of an accidental war—a possibility that could have driven both leaders to acknowledge the danger.

Effective communication about COVID-19 could save lives – but India’s strategy has been flawed

Over the past few decades, public health emergencies across the globe have shown us that a timely and efficient risk communication plan could help in minimising fatalities and managing situations on the ground. In unprecedented circumstances such as the Covid-19 pandemic, implementing effective communication methods becomes even more necessary. At the start of the pandemic, it was critical for the Union government to use all means to convey the gravity of the situation to the public. To do so, several communication plans were devised in order to maximise efficiency while minimising casualties.

Farm Laws lays bare India’s Internal Disunity. It’s Time to Fix it

To some Indians, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise announcement about repealing the three farm laws may be viewed as a victory for democracy. The forces at play in the political economy may have demonstrated their democratic strength. But India might have lost. For, there is no dispute that India’s economically and strategically important agriculture sector is in dire need of reform. Another thing that India needs to watch out for is that a weakened government, civil unrest, and inability to carry forward important economic reforms can all be exploited by foes.

Time for a Global Ban on Satellite Destruction Tests

Russia is a top-rung space power. In terms of technological capabilities, it ranks alongside the US and even surpasses it in some areas. The Russian establishment has a highly sophisticated understanding of the space domain. Moscow’s intellectual horsepower in space science, economics and strategy is outstanding. The Soviet Union and its successor, the Russian Federation, have demonstrated no less responsibility towards the preservation and protection of space for human activities than any other power. That is what makes Moscow’s anti-satellite (ASAT) test surprising.

If not for the internet...

One of the most interesting things about living in a small town is discovering bits of history where you thought none existed. The pandemic has forced me to move back to my hometown, Kanpur, Uttar Pradesh. As a city, Kanpur has a rich colonial history and was an eventful place during 1857.Last week, I listened to the Kanpur and Lucknow episode of the Musafir Stories (an excellent podcast). I learned about 'Baron Carlo Marochetti Road', or as it is known today in the city, 'Doodhwali Gali'. The Baron Marochetti Road is named after an Italian-French sculptor who was responsible for sculpting the Cawnpore Memorial. This monument represents the loss of 73 women and 124 children in July 1857.Read the full article in Deccan Herald

The Race for the Domination of AI Chips

With AI and advanced semiconductor technology an integral part of Industry 4.0, the impact of AI chips on the global technology landscape will gradually evolve in the coming decade.  The concept of new applications of semiconductors is gradually emerging and the concept of using artificial intelligence (AI) algorithms on high-end chipsets has opened an entirely new market for these devices, also known as AI chips. 

India’s Coal Stance at COP26 was about Money-Party Politics Poses Danger to Long-Term Goals

The United Nations Climate Change Conference, or the COP26, concluded in Glasgow on 13 November. India’s stand on coal birthed a narrative that projected an image of being a ‘hold-out’. China was a hold-out as well, but in terms of image, it managed to stay in the shadow. The light was more on India.

A single phrase struck a deal between India, China and the US. In all probability, there must be more than a grain of truth in it. That phrase was ‘out or down’. To put it in context, it must relate to the common word ‘phase’. The option was about the ‘phase-out’ or ‘phase-down’ of the use of coal. Prior to the contention raised in relation to coal, the US and China—the two largest contributors to climate change and also the largest coal polluters—had used the word ‘phase down’ in a mutual agreement signed between them. India (as the third-largest coal polluter) and China insisted on ‘phase down’ in the final declaration, which could only then be passed unanimously. Both held onto the word and the US made it possible. India may have won its battle but could be poised to lose the larger war.

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Why India shouldn't allow COVID-19 booster dose

The Delta variant caused a fresh wave of Covid-19 infections worldwide, aggravating the global public health catastrophe. The currently available Covid-19 vaccines are effective against the Delta variant, which prompted researchers to evaluate whether booster doses for vaccinated people are necessary and when they should be given. The objective of the booster dose is to extend vaccine efficacy in people already administered with primary vaccination. However, this decision should be taken after careful analysis of the necessity of boosters and their timing. India, however, should refrain from administering booster doses to its population until further studies are done to show its utility.Read the full article in the Deccan Herald

Delhi declaration marks India’s return to Afghanistan

On November 10, India hosted the third Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan in New Delhi. Unlike the past two iterations sponsored by Iran, the Delhi Meet was conspicuous by the absence of Afghan officials from the dialogue. The new Afghan regime dominated by the Haqqani Network was not invited to the meeting, whereas its prime backer, Pakistan, was invited but refused to attend, calling India a “spoiler” to the peace in Afghanistan. Beijing, a close ally of Islamabad, also opted out of the meeting, citing “scheduling difficulties”.Yet, the meeting in New Delhi led by NSA Ajit Doval remains vital to the geopolitical developments in the region. The meeting was attended by top security officials of Russia, Iran and the five Central Asian states – Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan, Tajikistan, Turkmenistan, and Uzbekistan.What came out of the Delhi Declaration? The deterioration of regional security due to the emerging threats of terrorism, radicalisation and drug trafficking emanating from political stability in Afghanistan remained the focus of the meeting. In the Delhi Declaration, the common concerns of the participants came out prominently with their reiteration of “strong support” for stability in Afghanistan and a call for “non-interference in its internal affairs”. They also emphasised that Afghanistan’s territory should not be used for “sheltering, training, planning or financing any terrorist acts” against the neighbours and reaffirmed their “firm commitment to combat terrorism in all its form and manifestations”.While Pakistan was not named, the Iranian concerns with the ISI domination in Afghanistan came into the forefront with the participants’ stress upon forming an “open and truly inclusive government” that includes all the “major ethno-political forces in the country”. It is important to note that ever since the Taliban victory in August 2015, Iran has consistently raised the issue of the exclusion of Persian/Dari speaking minority groups from the government. Mainly, the role of the ISI in imposing a Haqqani Network dominated government in Afghanistan had elicited strong reactions in Tehran. Though the Taliban had subsequently included some members from northern Afghanistan, it is clear that Iran would continue to focus on securing its allies’ interests in Afghanistan.The importance given to “providing humanitarian assistance to the people of Afghanistan” in the Delhi Declaration also high- lighted India’s concerns. From the Indian point of view, the participant countries’ support for humanitarian assistance to be provided in an “unimpeded, direct and assured manner to Afghanistan” was a gesture of support for New Delhi’s efforts to send aid to Afghanistan. It also underlines the regional opposition to Islamabad’s obstructive tactics in refusing to allow transit permission to the trucks waiting on the Indian side of the border. Similarly, the Declaration’s mention of the “central role” of the UN in Afghanistan was tacit approval of the UNSC resolution 2593, which prohibits safe havens to terror outfits like Jaish-e-Mohammed and Lashkar-e-Taiba, passed during India’s presidency of the Security Council in August this year.Has India got its focus back on Afghanistan? Ever since the Taliban victory, New Delhi has struggled to remain relevant to the developments in Kabul. On the other hand, having secured its strategic depth on its western border, Pakistan’s determination to not let India play any major role in Afghanistan is a geographic reality that remains difficult to overcome.In this regard, making a common cause with other regional powers is the only feasible solution for New Delhi. By hosting a regional security meeting on Afghanistan, India has belatedly underscored its security concerns with the regional developments. While the prospects of the Taliban-Pakistan fallout remain high until the ISI’s domination generates domestic backlash in Afghanistan, a concerted effort with like-minded regional powers is the only option for regional stability.This article was published in Newstrail newspaper on November 12, 2021.

Why PM Modi in Army uniform distracts from India’s real goals

Civilian leaders in military uniform are an attraction unmatched by any other clothing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worn one every Diwali since the India-China confrontation at Doklam in 2017. This year, he spent some time with the Army and addressed troops at Jammu’s Rajouri, not far from the Line of Control. He was dressed in an Army camouflage jacket and a red-banded hat, worn by Colonels and above. He wore an Indian Army emblem as the crownpiece, so to say, in the middle of the red band around the hat. No rank badges were worn.

The Prime Minister’s oratorical skills and the speech delivered in his inimitable style would have touched the hearts of the troops and uplifted their morale. ‘We are lucky to have a leader like Modi’ would perhaps be a lasting memory for those who saw him in flesh and blood. Even for those who would see it on video, and especially for the millions of his supporters across the world, it would have had a similar effect.

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Pledges at Glasgow could change the Global Distribution of Power

This article was originally published in The Mint, as part of Nitin Pai's fortnightly column, The Intersection. India was perhaps the only big country at the Glasgow CoP-26 meeting whose commitments were entirely driven by environmental considerations, and which came at a substantial cost to its medium-term economic prospects. Other major players had upsides. The transition from fossil fuels to modern renewables, for instance, presents China with a massive economic opportunity, given its dominance in solar, battery and nuclear power. Europe can protect its domestic industries from foreign competition by imposing green standards and tariffs. Given its advanced research and development ecosystem, the US is sure to derive economic benefits from the emerging global market for green technology.While energy transition will certainly create opportunities for Indian firms and consumers, the challenge of raising the living standards of hundreds of millions of our people has become even more daunting. It is uncertain if high economic growth at the scale required to create the 20 million jobs we need every year is possible within the parameters of India’s carbon commitments.Moreover, it is hard not to be sceptical about rich countries’ promises to ease the decades of pain and sacrifice the rest of the world has to bear. The righteousness of the West’s most ardent climate advocates must be seen against their abject failure to make covid vaccines available to billions of people in need of them today. The pandemic, like climate, is an indivisible collective threat to humankind. So countries, societies and leaders who are effectively refusing to come to the aid of billions of real people in this generation can hardly be relied upon to help future generations. Talk of $1 trillion in green financing and assistance from rich countries must be taken with liberal pinches of organic salt, given that we are still waiting for them to part with the $100 billion per year they promised at Paris six years ago.New Delhi can neither rely on the rich countries keeping to their emission commitments nor on receiving compensation for sacrificing growth. Financial Times columnist Megan Greene warns that, “There are inevitable short-term economic costs that risk generating a backlash against efforts to fight climate change." Rapid decarbonization is likely to cause a supply shock, raise prices and raise public debt. It will create winners and losers, and the latter could push back, as they have done against globalization. Yet, the pain that rich country populations will suffer is a trifle in comparison to that in the developing world, where well-known growth paths are to be abandoned and unknown, risky routes embraced. Lacking power in the international system, governments of developing countries will be compelled to require sacrifices from people too weak to mount backlashes.This is only partially a story of the hypocrisy and self-serving righteousness of powerful countries. If agreements like Paris’s and Glasgow’s are inadequate and unreliable, it is because the political structure of the world is not optimized to formulate solutions for humankind as a whole. Most of the 200-odd independent nation-states that exist today do so on the basis of national self-determination, the idea that people who share a lot of things in common and have their own homeland have the right to govern themselves. Whether or not people are better off under this dispensation is debatable. We have seen nation-states trample on the liberties of minorities and individuals. Their international conduct wilfully threatens the very existence of humanity. Addressing common global challenges was not even part of the design specifications of nation-states, which is why a collective front against a virus or a holistic approach to tackling climate change is touch-and-go at best.Our failure to adopt coherent global approaches to a growing number of important issues, such as international terrorism, public health, environment, weapons of mass destruction, transnational technology platforms and cyberspace governance, is in large part due to political structures. The best we can do under the current international system is to evolve a stable balance of power that creates an global order that permits global solutions for global problems. This long chain of hope, tenuous at best, is broken in many places. Xi Jinping’s absence at Glasgow indicates that no serious effort is on to try fixing this.As unprecedented are the risks to human survival and prosperity today, so are the opportunities for overcoming them. But we need to rethink political structures. Within countries, mechanisms of representative democracy and bureaucratic administration need overhauling. Across countries, there is a case for large, thin continental federations like the Indian republic and European Union. And what do we do with the United Nations?Let us hope that CoP-26 will achieve its goal of reducing carbon emissions. But in doing so, it will exacerbate other geopolitical and economic problems. Imagine a world where some other country replaces the Gulf as the global hub of energy. Fuel we will get from the sun and the air. But the supply of technology and raw materials to convert it to electricity may be dominated by China. Such a world is a decade away and will arrive well before we update our political structures. So, in whose image will the 21st century be constructed?

China’s hypersonic missile test got US, India racing. It exposes BMD vulnerability

China has carried out a test of a new space capability with a hypersonic missile, as reported first by The Financial Times. The test was supposedly carried out secretly in August 2021. The report relied on experts of the US intelligence community and could be a deliberate leak. It managed to touch the most sensitive cord of any nation’s strategic community—potential vulnerability.

A barrage of commentaries soon littered the information landscape. It mattered little that the development did not create a vulnerability in the Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) of the US or any other nation that is deploying it. The vulnerability already existed, and all the efforts of creating a BMD system have been chasing their tail since 2001—when the US had unleashed the BMD arms race as it withdrew from the 1972 Ballistic Missile Defense Treaty with the Soviet Union. The Financial Times report indicated that the US has now been disadvantaged by China’s technological progress. It sits easily with the larger narrative of Beijing’s growing technological and military capability.

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Why China’s Quest to Dominate Global Tech Standards Looks Far-fetched

The rise of China’s technological growth has created ripples in the world technology ecosystem.

The global tech markets, which were generally dominated by the West have come under immense geopolitical and geoeconomic pressure due to China’s rapid growth in developing emerging technologies. The Chinese government has created a vision for the State to dominate the global tech supply chains and eventually concentrate geopolitical power. At the heart of this vision lies technical standards and the role they play in determining the balance of power between technologically adept states.

Responsible Behaviour in Cyberspace

A new draft resolution focusing on cyberspace is on the agenda of the United Nations General Assembly(UNGA)’s First Committee. The resolution is a multilateral international effort to have a consensus on behavioural norms in cyberspace – where plenty of bad actors, both state and non-state may have threatened some countries’ critical national infrastructure and stolen funds from others. 

The resolution comes after years of efforts led by two separate frameworks in the UN, the Open-Ended Working Group (OEWG) and Group of Governmental Experts (GGE) championed by Russia and the US, respectively. As Russian business newspaper Kommersant’s foreign affairs beat journalist Elena Chernenko says in her article, the draft is “unexpected given the long rivalry between the two powers that have promoted competing cybersecurity negotiation mechanisms at the UN”. India is currently part of the 25 states in GGE and has consistently been a part of the grouping except for 2014-15. While OEWG comprises “all interested UN members”. 

The debate on cyberspace norms runs in parallel to other debates on nuclear disarmament, responsible behaviour in outer space and other high-tech and asymmetric domains – where both developed and developing nations have contributions to make. While not on the list of fifty-five nations who sponsor the draft resolution, India and China, the two strategic rivals, are not irrelevant to the debate on the issue. India and China are both part of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation(SCO) and have strong bilateral relations and shared interests with Russia. 

As a notable Russian cybersecurity and geopolitical analyst Oleg Shakirov of Center for Advanced Governance points out – China and other SCO members except Uzbekistan are currently not sponsoring the draft resolution but may do so before the voting on the resolution happens. 

The draft’s earmarked as “Agenda item 95” for the first committee, and as Chernenko reports in Kommersant, it is likely to be voted on in “November, after which, in December, it will be submitted to a general vote.” 

As the text of the draft highlights, it is about “voluntary, non-binding norms” which “do not seek to limit or prohibit action that is otherwise consistent with international law” in cyberspace. 

If the above assertion reminds one of how debates around the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea(UNCLOS) are worded, it is no coincidence. The use of cyberspace and digital communication networks is no less important than the physical access to sea lanes carrying international commerce and travellers. 

One sincerely hopes that any similar mechanism for Cyberspace does not become a decades long-drawn-out process like the negotiations and debates on UNCLOS were. It is a sincere hope that these negotiations on cyberspace norms reflect modern-day digital standards instead of slow nautical speeds that concern UNCLOS. 

While the progress on the draft is generally a good development, the issue of cybersecurity and the prospect of adversaries fielding offensive military capabilities in cyberspace can’t be resolved on paper. Moreover, it would be advisable for India to first formulate and publish its own cybersecurity strategy and doctrine before getting involved in any UN level multilateral agreement or treaty. 

As the Indian cybersecurity strategy presumably remains a work in progress, India’s only point of reference about its conduct in both civilian and military use of cyberspace can be its allies and partners in the common Indo-Pacific littoral region. Japan has recently published and adopted its new cybersecurity strategy, which will be the general guidance across sectors and departments of Japanese society and government respectively for the next three years.

The boldest move of Japan’s latest strategy is the un-hesitant designation of Russia, China and North Korea as cyber threats – even going so far as to attribute cause for their alleged hostile actions against their targets. To paraphrase and interpret, China and Russia in Japan’s eyes are driven by prospects of perpetrating Intellectual Property(IP) theft and by a desire to achieve political goals by other means(i.e. conducting hybrid war), respectively.

India should similarly identify problematic state-sponsored and non-state actors un-hesitantly in its own prospective strategy and update the document in a similar time frame of 2-3 years. While this is a more confrontational and proactive approach consistent with Japan’s capabilities and posture in the Indo-Pacific against China recently. For India, it will require both a political will to take a similar approach and technical prowess that would be imperative to attributing and tracking cyber perpetrators. Another aspect that India can draw from the Japanese document is the “whole of ecosystem” approach, which seeks to involve and safeguard all sectors and sections of society in the quest for bolstering its security in the cyber domain.

In conclusion, India should follow Japan’s example in its engagement domestically for a cyber strategy and internationally on any prospective cyber agreements.

The above expressed views are the author’s own and don’t necessarily reflect the recommendations of the Takshashila Institution

What India Can Bring to COP26

As heads of different states and climate researchers head to Glasgow to attend the 26th Conference of Parties organised by the United Nations Climate Change Framework Convention(UNFCCC), the question of how to tackle the threat of climate change still remains unanswered. The global climate action plan requires a massive revamp, especially post the report released by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) a few months ago. India and its active participation at the COP26 summit remain integral in the fight against climate change.Being a responsible climate leader, India can look to play the role of a mediator between the developing and developed countries. While increasing its own ambitions of reducing net emissions and improving clean energy infrastructure, India can look to support the states which are still dependent on traditional sources of energy to provide basic amenities to their citizens. Consistent efforts to ramp up clean energy production have made India almost achieve the target of 40% non-fossil fuel electricity generation capacity with 38.5% already having been installed in the country. This timely delivery of climate goals by India can also provide it adequate clout to call out the failure of the developed world to adhere to the agreed-upon climate goals.

A ‘bubbles of trust’ approach

An asymmetric globalisation favouring China allowed Beijing to attain power. It is now using that power to undermine liberal democratic values around the world. The Chinese market was never open to foreign companies in the way foreign markets are to Chinese firms. This is particularly true in the information and communications technology sector: foreign media, technology and software companies have always been walled out of Chinese markets. Meanwhile, Chinese firms rode on the globalisation bandwagon to secure significant market shares in open economies. President Xi Jinping now formally requires Chinese firms to follow the political agenda of the Chinese Communist Party. But even before this, it was not possible to tell where private ownership ended and the party-state began.We are currently witnessing a global retreat from the free movement of goods, services, capital, people and ideas. But this should not be understood as a reaction to globalisation itself, but of its skewed pattern over the past four decades.Read the full article here.