Takshashila Issue Brief - Growing India-U.S. Relationship from Strength to Strength
Published June 18, 2023
Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi is all set to embark on his first state visit to the United States (U.S.) next week from June 21st to 24th. The timing of the visit is significant from both the India-U.S. ties perspective and from the view of the current geopolitical churn.
The strategic partnership between the countries has expanded and grown across domains: defence and intelligence, economic and trade ties, supply chain resilience, strategic and emerging technology, climate change, and human capital. The engagement and shared priorities in the Indo-Pacific region have also strengthened ties.
In our assessment, we believe that the current international order is marked by great power competition between the U.S. and China in an increasingly multipolar world. This began with the U.S. pivot towards containing China, which was not unexpected. The fluidity in the international order today offers greater bargaining power and autonomy of action to middle powers like India to engage in strategic deal-making with the U.S.
The upcoming state visit provides India with the opportunity to enhance the ongoing partnership and explore new avenues for cooperation to further its strategic and economic interests. In this Issue Brief, we highlight some of our research on the goals India must pursue and how those can be achieved.
India Must Pursue Stronger Ties with the U.S.
Despite the growth in the India-U.S. partnership over the past two decades, several Indian policymakers, analysts and observers express apprehensions over closer ties with the U.S. Often such arguments often fail the tests of accuracy and persuasiveness.
In Takshashila Discussion Document - Assessing Arguments Against Closer India-US Ties, we assessed and debunked several common arguments made from both military and political perspectives. and made a case for closer economic and technological ties between the countries.
For instance, it is often argued that closer relations will result in India’s foreign policy losing its ability to take independent political positions on matters of international and national relevance. However, India has displayed independence in its choices over the issues surrounding the Russia-Ukraine war. Additionally, while certain compromises in any friendly bilateral relationship may be necessary keeping in mind the larger convergence of interests, the closeness and inter-dependence in India-U.S. ties will also allow Delhi to negotiate and extract concessions better.
Instead, we argue that India’s foreign policy choices must be analysed from its capacity to reach our strategic and economic goals, bereft of extraneous ideological and emotional calculations. Such an analysis gives weight to the importance of building the partnership further since the current geopolitical trends support closer alignment with the U.S.
For example, defence relations provide foundational support to India-U.S. ties today. The U.S. recognises India as a major defence partner and sees it as a regional security provider in the Indo-Pacific, as opposed to an aggressive China. Since India is a crucial counterweight to China under the US Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific, India must look to exploit this in negotiations over defence purchases from the U.S. It is also in India’s interests to pursue a tech transfer deal with the U.S., which has so far eluded the defence partnership.
Cooperation in outer space is another area poised for greater collaboration between India and the U.S. They recently finalised the contours of defence-industrial cooperation. India has so far opted out of the Artemis Programme and signing the Artemis Accords. It is important for India to seriously consider joining the Artemis if it seeks to reshape norms for space governance in this century and benefit from the multilateral cooperation the programme offers.
Set a Bilateral Trade Target of $1 Trillion by 2040
Along with national security, India’s primary objective behind a stronger strategic partnership with the U.S. is its economic development. The thrust of the relationship must, therefore, drive a larger trade partnership with the U.S.
While the U.S. has emerged as India’s largest trade partner, India remains amongst the top ten trade partners of the U.S. The Takshashila Policy Advisory - Time to Launch the US-India Trade Relationship into Another Orbit, sets an ambitious bilateral trade target of $500 billion and $1 trillion for the countries to achieve by 2030 and 2040, respectively, and offers pathways to achieve this.
First, the existing 2+2 dialogue between the defence and foreign ministers of both sides must be expanded to 3+3, by including the trade and commerce representatives from both countries. Second, holding the Trade Policy Forum every year will ensure follow-through on ambitious goals. Third, given the large geography and federal nature of both countries, respective states must be empowered to bolster trade and economic cooperation by engaging in reciprocal visits each year.
In the bigger picture, India and the U.S. are not party to any major regional trade partnerships where both are participating countries. While the differences under the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework must be thrashed out, India must not lose this opportunity for expanding its trade.
Finally, the strongest component of the India-U.S. relationship remains people-to-people relationships and networks. Both sides must ensure reciprocal visa access on a priority basis and work towards creating a separate category for visas for Indians, outside of the general pool.
This Issue Brief has been compiled by Shrikrishna Upadhyaya, with inputs from Manoj Kewalramani.
Further Resources:
Takshashila Discussion Document - Assessing Arguments Against Closer India-US Ties by Yusuf Unjhawala
Takshashila Policy Advisory - Time to Launch the US-India Trade Relationship into Another Orbit by Narayan Ramachandran, Pranay Kotasthane, Anupam Manur and Sarthak Pradhan
Takshashila Working Paper - Great Power Competition in the Indo-Pacific by Manoj Kewalramani
Takshashila Issue Brief - India & Artemis Programme: Next Step for Space Cooperation?
Takshashila Discussion Document - Examining Biden’s Evolving Indo-Pacific Policy by Manoj Kewalramani and Aditya Ramanathan
Takshashila Discussion Document - Deriving India's Strategies for a New World Order by Anirudh Kanisetti, Anupam Manur and Pranay Kotasthane
Takshashila Discussion Document - The looming United States pivot towards containing China’s influence by Pranay Kotasthane and V Ananta Nageswaran
Takshashila-Hudson Panel | 75 years of India-US partnership | Wednesday, 19th October 2022
Takshashila Discussion Document - The Case for an India-US Partnership in Cybersecurity
