China’s ‘1+N’ Policy Framework across Provincial Governments: Implementation, Progress and Challenges

Published June 20, 2024

Executive Summary

This study discusses China’s ‘1+N’ Policy Framework and examines how provincial governments are executing it. The paper begins with an overview of the ‘1+N’ Policy Framework, an examination of Working Guidance for Carbon Dioxide Peaking and Carbon Neutrality and a detailed analysis of the Action Plan for Carbon Dioxide Peaking Before 2030. Subsequently, it evaluates China’s progress in meeting the targets outlined in the Action Plan while examining the country’s overall investments and achievements in different renewable energy sectors.

An analysis of 14 provinces’ carbon neutrality action plans alongside an assessment of nationwide progress in decarbonisation efforts, reveals major challenges in the path to achieving carbon neutrality. Between 2020-2023, energy intensity decreased by only 2%, well below the targeted 13.5% (from 2020 levels) reduction by 2025. Carbon intensity also remains far from the 2025 goal of 18% reduction (from 2020 levels), with only a 4.6% cut achieved as of 2023. Despite the action plan calling for strict control and gradual reduction of coal consumption, coal still dominates China’s energy mix at 61% (in 2021), while its share of total energy consumption was 55.3% in 2023. In fact, 114 GW of new coal capacity was approved in 2023 alone. These gaps underscore the difficulties China faces in transitioning from coal and aligning provincial actions with national carbon neutrality objectives.

The author would like to thank Manoj Kewalramani, Amit Kumar & Anushka Saxena for their research support.

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