On March 9, 2026, SIPRI released its assessment of the data on arms transfers and international arms trade between 2021 and 2025. Per the report, China holds a notable position as the fifth largest exporter of major arms globally in the 2021–25 period, accounting for 5.6% of total global arms exports. This represents an 11% increase in export volume compared to 2016–20, when its share stood at 5.5%, reflecting modest growth amid a 9.2% rise in overall global arms transfers. However, this expansion remains dwarfed by leading exporters like the United States (42% share) and occurs against a backdrop of China’s own arms imports plummeting by 72%, as it prioritises domestic production capabilities.
China’s export profile is highly concentrated regionally and by recipient, with 77% directed to Asia and Oceania states and 13% to Africa. Pakistan dominates as the primary buyer, receiving 61% of China’s total exports (equivalent to over half of its arms imports basket coming from China alone), indicating that the Beijing-Islamabad strategic alignment remained strong, even amid regional tensions. Other interesting recipients include Serbia (6.8%) and Thailand (4.7%), with China supplying arms to 47 states overall, though volumes pale relative to Western competitors.
This data leads to three key takeaways on China’s role in the global arms trade:
China may be a reliable supplier to developing markets seeking cost-effective alternatives, yet, it remains constrained by technological gaps and geopolitical factors, limiting broader market penetration.
As global demand surges, driven by varied regional conflicts, China’s steady but niche growth suggests potential for expansion if domestic production scales further, though reliance on a few key clients poses risks.
China’s own defence industrial base outperforms in servicing the domestic consumer (i.e. the People’s Liberation Army), though it does not emerge a trustworthy partner for large importers of arms seeking to diversify away from the US, Russia, France, Israel or Germany.