Ukraine War Won’t Affect Global Semiconductor Supply, But Will Hit Russia Hard

With the world still reeling from a global chip shortage, the recent crisis in Ukraine sends a bleak message to the already floundering industry. The semiconductor chip supply is yet to recover from the shock dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic. This, coupled with an impending war between two states that are contributors to the global supply chain, is detrimental to the industry’s recovery. The consumer electronics and automotive markets have been massively hit by this chip shortage. Apple, a major manufacturer of mobile phones and laptops, has pushed the release of their new line of MacBook and announced that the number of iPhone models being manufactured would be reduced due to the chip shortage. The automotive sector is still underperforming and major players have yet to resume operations at pre-pandemic levels. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia might have some implications on the global chip supply along with consequences for the Russian semiconductor industry itself.

With Eye on China, India Joins Race To Weaponise Quantum Tech in Future Military Conflicts

On February 23, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) made an announcement that went a bit under the radar but can have huge ramifications in the future for developing military technologies. The official statement given by the DRDO stated that a joint team of DRDO and IIT-Delhi successfully demonstrated a Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) link for the very first time in the country between the cities of Prayagraj and Vindhyachal in the state of Uttar Pradesh. An interesting thing to note is that these cities are located at a distance of 100 kilometres from each other. This marks the beginning of the Indian military complex utilising an emerging technology like quantum to enhance domestic defensive capabilities.

India can work around Russia’s SWIFT expulsion. But there may be geopolitical costs

One of the most severe Western sanctions on Russia is freezing the Russian central bank’s assets held abroad. Russia has $630 billion in foreign exchange reserves. However, more than $300 billion worth of assets are held abroad in the Federal Reserve (US central bank) and the European Central Bank (ECB). Cutting off access to these funds to Russia can be a mighty blow.

The other big action underway is excluding Russian banks from the SWIFT network, which facilitates international payments. SWIFT (Society for Worldwide Interbank Financial Telecommunication) is a global messaging system that allows banks to communicate with each other in a secure manner, enabling safe transfer of funds. Based in Belgium and jointly owned by 2,000 banks and financial institutions, it is the underlying technology that enables global payments and has 11,000 international banks as members.

Cutting Russia Off SWIFT Could Accelerate Beijing-Moscow Alternative Payments System

On February 24, the United Kingdom (UK) announced its “largest-ever” economic sanctions on Russia, and so did the United States (US). As the sanctions get stricter, shared economic interests and geopolitical considerations are likely to deepen economic relations between Beijing and Moscow, including the prospect of building an alternative financial system.

The signs of deepening Russia-China economic relations are evident. In an interview with a Russian newspaper amidst Russia’s recognition of rebel-held regions in Eastern Ukraine, China’s ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, spoke about possibilities of furthering cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, especially in energy, space, financial cooperation, and high-tech weapons systems. These are also the sectors targeted in the recent round of sanctions by the UK and the US. This is explicit signalling by Beijing of its support for Moscow.

There’s a jobs crisis. Acknowledge it

Every year, India’s annual Budget is elevated from a mundane accounting exercise to a statement of intent and priorities of the government at the helm. The Budget speech made by the finance minister (FM) is scrutinised to check how many times a particular sector, industry or policy issue is mentioned to gauge the government’s priorities and preferences. Jobs, by the way, was mentioned three times in the Budget speech this year.

In the speech, the FM mentioned there were initiatives in the pipeline that could create six million jobs over the next five years. That is, an average of 1.2 million jobs each year. While there is a minor sense of relief that the government is finally taking cognisance of the jobs problem (instead of relying on pakora wallahs), unfortunately, the overwhelming feeling is that of inadequacy. The vague pronouncement betrays the government’s lack of appreciation of the magnitude of the jobs problem.

US Indo-Pacific Strategy geared for Great Power Competition

The US recently came out with the latest iteration of its Indo-Pacific Strategy. The document has a clear imprint of the ongoing great-power competition across political, ideological and military-technical domains between US and its allies on one side and China and Russia on the other. The document has a realist tone, admitting that the US seeks “a balance of influence in the world that is maximally favorable” to it. It is no coincidence that Russia and China take issue with the US rhetoric on a “rules-based order” that would only be advantageous to US and countries closely aligned to it. 

Understanding China’s High Tech Espionage Efforts To Modernise The Military

The Department of Defense (DoD) under the United States government recently released its yearly report on the military and security developments in China. This report, acronymised as the DoD report, gives a comprehensive understanding of the progress made by the Chinese armed forces over the year along with elucidating the future plans of the Chinese military. One of the interesting aspects of last year’s DoD report was the focus on China’s industrial espionage efforts on certain advanced technologies which the government thinks holds the key to enhancing the quality of their military systems.

India Needs A Comprehensive Space Strategy

It will not only bolster inter-organisation coordination in India’s space sector, but also help in building investor confidence and projecting the country as a responsible space power

India’s growth and prosperity in the present era is due to its ability to secure its use of outer space. With the advent of the second space age, private NewSpace companies such as SpaceX are leading the charge, and not governmental civilian space agencies or militaries. However, as outlined in the Outer Space Treaty (OST), the existing international laws hold nation-states responsible for the actions and consequences of their private space companies, citizens, and functionaries.

Why China is Talking about a 1952 Pact and ‘Equal Negotiations’ with Sri Lanka

On January 9, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded his five-nation Indian Ocean trip with his departure from Sri Lanka. During a 24-hour visit to Colombo, Wang launched the celebrations for the 65th anniversary of China-Sri Lanka relations by inaugurating the promenade of the Colombo Port City, a flagship Belt and Road project. Wang’s talks with the Sri Lankan leaders took place in the backdrop of possibly the worst foreign exchange crisis in the Island’s history. Thus, Foreign Minister G.L. Peiris commenced the talks by reminding the visitor that the proverb “a friend in need is a friend indeed, is the eternal theme of bilateral relations”. Similarly, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa thanked China for “always lending a helping hand” during Sri Lanka’s time of urgent need.

India’s Solar And Renewable Energy Push Signals Challenge To Chinese Dominance

As finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman read out her Budget speech in Parliament on 1 February, the stock prices of domestic solar manufacturers such as Adani Solar, Tata Power and Suzlon rose sharply in response to government’s big push to green energy. With India setting specific goals for the reduction of carbon emissions as seen from the signalling at the COP-26 summit, the competition for dominating the global renewable energy markets is something to watch out for.

An analysis of measures to create jobs and boost industries : Union Budget 2022-23

This is a draft version of the article published in Prajavani, which is accessible here.

India's employment rate stands between 38% - 43%, against the global employment rate of 55%. According to CMIE data, India had 53 million unemployed people in December 2021. In the last few weeks, India witnessed violent protests by job seekers. As the Indian economy recovers from the pandemic, it must create enough jobs to avert an unemployment crisis. The Union Budget has some solutions to address the same, but it might not be enough.

Read the full draft here.

The Roadmap To India’s $300 Billion Electronics Manufacturing Dream

On January 24, the Minister for Electronics and Information Technology, Ashwini Vaishnaw released the vision document on the opportunities and growth of domestic electronics manufacturing. The report was a collaboration with the Indian Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA) for developing a roadmap to increase and improve the share of India’s electronics exports in the next five years. While the first volume, titled “Increasing India’s Electronics Exports and Share in GVCs”, was released in November 2021, the second volume of the vision document came out this month.

Has Russia Wrecked American ‘G-2’ Plans?

On January 10, the U.S. and Russia held an “extraordinary” session of the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue in Geneva. Unlike the previous two meetings, held in July and September last year, the recent meeting occurred against the backdrop of increasing tensions between the West and Russia. With the growing threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the table, the recent talks included both the issue of strategic stability and a Russian demand for security guarantees from the United States. While much focus has been given to NATO’s eastward expansion as a prime driver of Russian insecurity, it may instead be the Kremlin’s fear of an emergent China-U.S. “G-2” being manifested in Russian strategic behavior.

Russia, The West, And The Info War

Fears of war breaking out between Russia and Ukraine have dominated headlines in the international press. Information warfare is an undeniable reality of modern conflicts, and its impact is often strategic in demoralizing the adversary’s forces and populace.

In many of its doctrinal and strategic publications, Russia acknowledges that the information domain is an active battleground, regardless of the contending sides being in a state of war or peace. Despite spirited official denials, it is fair to say that Russia gives as good as it gets in the information domain.

In the latest round of public jousting around hybrid and information warfare, both sides have led with accusations and official public statements.

The Russian Ministry of Defense has alleged that American mercenaries are present and looking to orchestrate a chemical attack in the Donbas region of Ukraine. Meanwhile the US State Department has released a fact sheet detailing the alleged Russian “destabilization campaign in Ukraine.” British Foreign Secretary Liz Truss has made a statement accusing Russia of planning “to install pro-Russian leadership in Ukraine.”

Russia’s approach to building up forces on Ukraine’s border is best characterized as Clausewitzian, meaning it’s aimed toward achieving political goals through other means.

Why India-Australia Technology Cooperation is a Welcome Development

Collaboration on critical and emerging technologies has been high on the agenda for the Australian and Indian governments in recent months. On 17 November 2021, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison gave a virtual inaugural address at the Bengaluru Technology Summit. Morrison’s speech was accompanied by an announcement expressing Australia’s commitment to establish a Centre of Excellence for Critical and Emerging Technology Policy in India. The very next day, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a keynote address at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Sydney Dialogue, in which he emphasised the importance of technology to the two countries’ comprehensive strategic partnership, which was established in 2020.

Omicron: Is India testing enough?

With the onslaught of the third wave, low testing rates have become a point of concern. With positivity rates touching 30 per cent in some cities as against the World Health Organisation (WHO)’s recommended five per cent, we do not see a proportional rise in the number of cases. This low number contributes to the narrative about the meekness of the Omicron variant hindering our implementation of the 3T strategy of testing, tracking and treatment.

Industrial Policies Alone Cannot Give Desired Results in Tech Sector

The India Cellular and Electronics Industry (ICEA) recently released a report detailing the effects of import tariffs on the domestic electronics industry. Currently, India’s import tariff rate for electronic and technology goods is much more than those of competing countries like China and Vietnam. This has been on the back of the recently announced 76,000 crore package to build the Indian semiconductor industry. But high import tariffs, trade restrictions, and taxation meant as protectionist measures decline the competitiveness of Indian goods in the global market. More importantly, it completely negates the effect of industrial policy measures which are meant to be supportive and business-friendly like the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme.

Defence ministry’s Preferential Market Access policy Is Protectionism. Indian-Made Arms Need Export Market

Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a clarion call for Atmanirbhar Bharat on 12 May 2020. He said that self-reliance was the only path to fulfil the dream of building a 21st century India in the post-Covid world. Modi made a distinction between self-reliance and being self-centred in a globalised world, observing how “local manufacturing, market and supply chains” had helped India mitigate its Covid-19 crisis. He emphasised that we had to be more “vocal about local products and help them become global.”

China’s Bare-Chested Turn To Sri-Lankan Tamils Is India’s New Headache

The arrest of more than 60 Indian fishermen by the Sri Lankan Navy last month created a political stir in Tamil Nadu. The state’s fishermen are continuing their indefinite strike from 19 December, with a plan to stage a ‘massive rail roko’ agitation if all the arrested fishermen are not released. Writing to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, the state’s chief minister M.K. Stalin has also asked the Narendra Modi government to ensure “fishermen’s safety and the right to livelihood” from the intimidatory tactics of the Sri Lankan Navy.

Countering Hate In The Digital World

Ongoing police investigations to identify the culprits behind the condemnable “Bulli Bai” and “Sulli Deals” apps, which “auctioned” several prominent and vocal Muslim women, implicate individuals born close to the turn of the century. At first glance, this indicates that digital natives are not resilient against problems such as disinformation, hate speech and the potential for radicalisation that plague our informational spaces. But placed within the broader context of decreasing levels of social cohesion in Indian society, that such apps were even created requires us to frame our understanding in a way that can point us towards the right set of long-term interventions.