Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
India shouldn’t worry, Myanmar needs us more to prevent China domination
International reactions to military coups fall into two broad categories — “we demand the immediate restoration of democracy” or “the generals might be bastards, but they are our bastards”. The two responses appear mutually exclusive, but to astute practitioners of statecraft, they are not. One way to accomplish this is to say one thing and do the other. A more sophisticated way is to say and do both things simultaneously. If we were to employ such methods in our personal and domestic lives, it would be rightly considered duplicitous, hypocritical, and immoral. In the amoral world of international relations, however, the same value judgements don’t readily apply. What matters is how well you secure your national interest.Read the full article on ThePrint
The race to map the ocean deep
India is falling behind efforts to map the undersea environment of the Indo-Pacific regionMajor powers are investing time and money deploying UUVs in these waters because of the valuable oceanographic and hydrographic data they provide. Oceanography is the study of the physical and biological aspects of the oceans. Hydrography is the process by which the ocean bed is surveyed and navigation aids and charts are produced, providing ships the maritime equivalent of roadmaps and road signs.Oceanography and hydrography have clear civilian applications: scientific research into climate and marine ecology, surveying the ocean floors to ensure safer navigation of merchant vessels, and collecting information for oil and gas or other seabed mining activities.However, there are also equally clear naval applications: Hydrographic data ease the movement of naval surface ships. More important, they provide crucial information for submarines and for those tasked with hunting them. Over the coming years, the study of the oceans and the seabed is likely to become a source of power and influence in the Indo-Pacific region.Read the full article on Asia Times
COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy: India’s opportunity to regain leadership in the neighbourhood
COVID-19 vaccine diplomacy: India’s opportunity to regain leadership in the neighbourhoodBy Pranathi Rao
In early 2020, India responded to COVID-19 with a strict lockdown, mask mandates, and a broad shutdown of schools and recreational centers. The disease burden- as the country with the second highest number of total COVID-19 cases- meant that India spent much of the year battling internal issues, but current lack of global leadership from the US and the EU means that India can no longer afford to focus inwards. Rather, the government must aim to export more vaccines and provide greater aid to struggling nations around the world.Science diplomacy is defined, nebulously, as a series of interactions that occur in the intersection of the two fields of science and diplomacy. A subset of science diplomacy is called vaccine diplomacy, which involves the convergence of vaccine development, import and export for furthering a country’s diplomatic goals. India has no specific framework for this particular kind of diplomacy, but are not hesitating to use vaccine diplomacy to drum up international support and goodwill.Read the full article on Firstpost.
Does the budget meet India’s Defence requirements?
Until 2019, defence spending made headlines around just two events in a year. The first was when the Union budget was tabled in Parliament, and the second was when the Swedish thinktank, SIPRI, released its formidable comparative military expenditure report. That scenario changed in FY 2020-21. China’s incursions in Ladakh highlighted the urgent and long-term need to prioritise defence. It brought home the point that the central focus of military planning should be China, not Pakistan. This need for prioritisation came even as the pandemic caused a drop in both economic activity and government revenue. Given this backdrop, the government had a challenging task on its hands. There are four key takeaways from the Union Budget 2021-22 for defence.Read the full article on Hindustan Times
Budget’s disinvestment targets are heroic. Modi govt must show unprecedented transparency
More than macroeconomic numbers like fiscal deficits, outlays and revenue targets, we can get a good sense of the Budget by looking at the tax rates. If there are new or higher taxes, or more complicated tax rules, it is usually a bad Budget. If there are lower taxes and compliance simplified, it’s a great Budget. And if, like the Budget Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman presented Monday, where the taxes remain unchanged amid an attempt to simplify their administration, then it’s a decent Budget. Considering that the Narendra Modi government does not intend to raise direct taxes amid the additional spending in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic, by the tax-rate yardstick, we can grant that it is a fairly good Budget.Read the full article on ThePrint
An analysis of Social Security Measures : Union Budget 2021-22
By Sarthak Pradhan
This is a draft version of the article published in Prajavani, which is accessible here.
The COVID19 pandemic and its economic impact clearly showed that India's social protection measures were not enough. An analysis of the social security measures in the Union Budget 2021-22 can help us understand the Governments' priorities. The most important questions to be asked - Has the Union government prioritised social protection in the Budget? If yes, what is the realistic outcome it wants to achieve?
Read the full draft here.
What we must regulate when we regulate social media platforms
The global debate over how to govern Big Tech has intensified after Twitter, Facebook, Alphabet and Amazon de-platformed former US President Donald Trump and some of his supporters in the wake of the mob raid on the US Capitol on 6 January. Clearly, transnational technology platforms not only influence politics and markets through actions of users they don’t control, but directly wield political power themselves. Human society has yet to completely adjust to these new power centres of the Information Age, and all states—from autocracies to liberal democracies—are in their own ways contending with the challenges of how to limit, constrain, regulate and harness them.Read the full article in The Mint
Looking beyond the Budget numbers to see if government schemes really work
Jack Ma story: China’s deep strategic ambition
Earlier this month, the Chinese tech tycoon, Jack Ma, made his first public appearance ever since the suspension of Ant Group’s $37 billion IPO in November. Ant is an affiliate company of Alibaba, the e-commerce giant that he co-founded. The crackdown on Ant followed Jack Ma’s comments in late October during a public event in Shanghai. He had then criticised Chinese regulators for harbouring a “pawnshop mentality,” focusing on pledges and collaterals when it came to finance.
Voting Technology: Time for electoral reforms
The possibility of improving the quality of leadership is the redeeming feature of democracy. Declining standards in political probity, the unrepresentative character of the elected legislatures, corrupt practices like electoral bonds are major concerns and call for reform of the electoral system.According to an analysis of affidavits of winners in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 43% have criminal cases and 29% have serious criminal cases against them including offences where maximum punishment is five years or more. These offences are non-bailable and relate to assault, kidnap, rape, murder, electoral offences like bribery, corruption causing loss to exchequer, and crimes against women. In 2009, it was 30% and 14% respectively, and the present figures indicate that the number of elected parliamentarians with serious offences has doubled over the past 10 years. As excuses, the foisting of false cases and the pathologies of the criminal justice system are touted to prevent reform. Ironically, a weak criminal justice system favours the perpetuation of political deceit. To expect that the narrow self-interests of political parties will let them push for electoral reform that improves leadership quality would be deluding.Read the full article in Deccan Herald
Indians have put their Republic on a pedestal, forgotten to practice it each day
It’s Republic Day. We will celebrate it as usual with a grand military parade in New Delhi, and flag-hoisting functions at government offices, educational institutions, apartment complexes and neighbourhoods. We will sing patriotic songs, honour our soldiers, listen to a speech by a chief guest and enjoy the rest of the holiday. In some of these functions, we will read out the Preamble to the Constitution aloud, a very good practice that started in recent years and one that ought to become more popular. These apart, there are some unusual developments this year with the invited foreign dignitary unable to turn up in New Delhi and uninvited farmers turning up in their thousands instead, for their very own Republic Day parade.Read the full article on ThePrint
Why the Rupee Overvaluation must be kept in check
Signalling a Race against Time
This article was first published in Deccan Herald. Views are personal.As a child of the nineties, I have had the privilege of watching the internet evolve over the ages. I remember rushing back from school and throwing away my bag to switch on the computer and the internet. Back in the day, you had to fire up the internet through a landline connection. And while you were online, if someone wanted to use the landline, the internet connection would be disrupted. But boy was all of it worth it. I would have gone anywhere on the internet (but mostly stayed at Orkut) to chat with my friends.‘Network effects’ made Orkut the place for me, just as they make social media apps like WhatsApp popular today. The basic idea behind network effects is that you are on WhatsApp because your friends are on it, and your friends are on it because their friends (and you) are on it. It’s a simple principle and one that is likely going to be the downfall of Signal.
Why India will not see a big second wave of Covid-19
There will not be a significant second wave of Covid-19 in India.
Last August, using a Cynically Optimistic Back Of The Envelope, or COBOTE, calculation, I estimated that Covid-19 will end its epidemic phase in India by January 2021. Karthik Shashidhar, my collaborator, used the curve-fitting technique to predict that the pandemic will be over in the country by February 2021. It appears that these predictions were not too far off the mark.
Weaning away foreign investment from China
Over the past few years, there has been much discussion about India attracting firms that might be seeking to exit China. Initially, these conversations were driven by changes in the Chinese economy, such as rising labour costs, shifting focus towards new technologies and declining productivity. There was a sense that these changes, coupled with improving infrastructure and ease of doing business in India, would make India an attractive option.
Will Indian Scientific Temper Survive 2021?
(This article was first published in The Wire)2020 was a disaster year for almost everyone – but it was a unique opportunity for Indian science. An oft-neglected enterprise, it received unprecedented attention as scientists tried to innovate in the diagnostics, treatment and vaccine spaces. Taken together, this was an opportunity to demonstrate India’s capabilities and expertise – not just for a domestic audience but the international one as well.The obstacles 2020 brought were a ladder for Indian science to rise up to a leadership position and become a driver of the Indian economy.
But opacity, ambiguity and distrust have squandered this opportunity. Only two weeks into 2021 and India has claimed a major casualty – scientific temper – and the suspects are not the usual zealots or the so-called “lay people” but the very custodians of the ‘temple’ of science. (Read more)
America’s strategic rivalry with China won’t change under Biden
The United States’ Strategic Framework for the Indo-Pacific, an extant policy document declassified and published last week by the outgoing Donald Trump administration, is mostly music to New Delhi’s ears. Assuming that “a strong India, in cooperation with like-minded countries, would act as a counterbalance [to] China", one of Washington’s objectives is to “accelerate India’s rise and capacity to serve as a net provider of security and Major Defense Partner" and “solidify an enduring strategic partnership with India underpinned by a strong Indian military able to effectively collaborate with the United States and our partners in the region to address shared interests." Becoming India’s preferred partner on security issues is one of the desired ends of the United States’ policy. Much of this has already been stated by US officials over the past two decades. But mere talk is cheap. The cold hard print of an apex policy document ought to make Washington’s intentions a lot more credible in New Delhi.Read the full article on The Mint
Decoding the Signals Surrounding Signal’s Success
The defining feature of 21st-century innovation has been the reduction of friction.The most successful companies of our times – Google, Facebook, Uber, and so on – follow what economists David S. Evans and Richard Schmalensee call the “Matchmaker” business model. These companies make their money by making it easier for one group of people to connect with another group of people almost effortlessly. Uber, for instance, makes it easy for cab drivers and cab riders to find each other, a job that has historically caused great frustration, as anyone who has attempted to hail an auto in Bengaluru in the old-fashioned, “wave-your-hands-frantically-as-if-you-are-drowning” way can attest.Read the full article in The Wire
A small step for Google
If you were to ask a group of a hundred people about their choice of a dream employer, chances are a significant number of them would mention Google. Picture modern offices with Google's theme, which the journalist, Steven Levy, once described as, "decorated in a style that mixed high-tech Dumpster with nursery school". And while Google remains the aspirational employer for most people, all is not well at Google’s campus.Over 200 workers at Alphabet (Google's parent company), including employees and contractors, have decided to unionise to stand up against issues of pay disparity, harassment, and controversial government contracts. The first one is relatively self-explanatory. Let me provide some context for the latter two.In 2018, the New York Times reported that Andy Rubin, the creator of Android, was accused of sexual misconduct by a Google employee. Although Google had asked him to leave in 2014, it had paid him a $90 million exit package and given him a hero’s farewell, it said. It argued that he was one of three senior executives Google had “protected” after they were accused of sexual misconduct at the organisation in 10 years.This article was first published in Deccan Herald, you can read more by clicking on this link. Views are personal.
Cautious Optimism
The welcome to the new year was wishfully cheerful, riding more hope than evidence. Economic data that is coming out is still mixed, yet hopeful. But to have survived the year 2020 is itself a cause of celebration.Read the full article on OrissaPost