The UPI payments space is in for its biggest shift yet

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.Around 10 years ago, back when the Blackberry Messenger (BBM) was still prevalent, I remember trying to persuade a friend of mine to get himself a Blackberry phone so that we could chat on BBM. He countered me saying that WhatsApp (emerging at the time) would overtake BBM soon enough. It was free, worked across multiple platforms and did not require people to be on Blackberry. At the time, I could not take him seriously. BBM was here to stay. I have never been more wrong.Earlier this week, the Competition Commission of India (CCI) dismissed an anti-trust case against WhatsApp Pay. WhatsApp has been trying to launch a payments feature for a while now, and it is currently in beta, shared with a small share of users. The order by CCI is forty-one pages long, but the basis for the dismissal is that UPI payments apps are an evolving market. Currently, when the feature is in beta, it is implausible to assume that “WhatsApp Pay will automatically get a considerable market share based on pre-installation”.

Reining in platforms like Facebook

In December 2015 the founder and Chief Executive of Facebook, Mark Zuckerberg, wrote passionately in The Times of India why it was important to give free access to internet. He was promoting the idea of ‘Free Basics’ launched by Facebook. It would give free access to basic internet services to all Indians. No charge would be applied for data use by the telecom company to access Facebook and a few other sites. Facebook would pay directly to the telecom company for the data. It was what he called a bridge to full internet access. It would close the digital divide. It would lead to digital equality. He claimed that full internet access would lift millions out of poverty. He compared this free service to provision of free basic health or education. It was a persuasive pitch.Unfortunately for him, the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI) turned it down. Why would TRAI turn down a free service being offered by the social media giant? The answer is subtle but very important. While some free access to internet is better than no access, the Facebook free offer was giving access to only certain websites. Thus the poor who opted for Free Basics would be able to roam only where Facebook allowed them to roam. This curtails a more basic kind of freedom, i.e. freedom to roam the internet. And all other smaller websites would have to pay Facebook to enter this “walled garden”. This is opposite to the principle of net neutrality. A profitmaking organisation like Facebook was offering “free services” because it hoped to make those free customers become sticky and paying customers, in the future. It was like a “foot in the door” policy, giving freebies in the beginning, that any monopoly uses to oust competitors. Once it has hundreds of millions of users inside the “walled garden”, it would charge monopoly pricing to those who wanted to access those customers. It would become a gatekeeper to a privately owned corner of the internet. Thanks to a nationwide people’s campaign for net neutrality, the Facebook plan for Free Basics failed. Read More

India is good in the Arab world now. But Delhi must quickly move to contain Turkey’s Erdogan

It came as a surprise but it is not surprising. When the United Arab Emirates and Israel announced that they would establish normal relations with each other, in a US-brokered agreement last week, they publicly accepted what has been obvious for several years now — that the national interests of the Emirates along with those of Saudi Arabia and many other Arab states were converging with those of Israel.

The triangular contest in the Middle East — with Iran, Turkey and Saudi Arabia vying for regional dominance — is a modern replay of older rivalries between the Persians, Ottomans and Arabs. With Israel perceiving an existential threat from Iran and being wary of once-friendly but increasingly threatening Turkey, realist logic would expect Tel Aviv to gravitate towards the Arab nations. The thorny Palestinian question long prevented an alliance between Israel and the Arab powers. Set that aside and Israel and the Arab nations become co-travellers on the road to prevent Iranian and Turkish hegemony over the Middle East.Read More.

A retreat from global trade will hurt India’s geopolitical stature

Almost a year ago, this column had warned that the economic slowdown that India was experiencing would have a negative impact on India’s geopolitical standing, because it is “presumptuous to expect countries and companies to be sympathetic to India’s political interests if they do not see an economic upside". “Sheer momentum will allow Indian foreign policy to tide over a mild, short slowdown. If, however, we go into a deep, prolonged slump, we should expect a tough time in international relations." This was before the COVID pandemic began. Events and India’s own policy choices since then have worsened the prognosis.

With an economic recovery distant, rising trade restrictions, and a reluctance to participate in a wider geopolitical contest against China, India risks undermining its relevance as a world power. For its part, Beijing is unlikely to miss any opportunity to push its hegemonic agenda further and box New Delhi into a sub-subcontinental role. The international environment that was so conducive to India’s developmental and political interests over the past three decades might turn against us within the next couple of years. One has only to recollect the experience of the 1970s and 80s—when import and foreign exchange restrictions, international sanctions and foreign sympathy for domestic insurgencies kept us on the back foot and dissipated our strategic establishment’s energies—to conclude that the government should do everything possible to avoid a similar plight.Read More

Forget TikTok, what India must focus on is semiconductors

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.In case you have been following the news, developments around TikTok are hard to look away from. The app has been associated with Twitter, Apple, and Microsoft. Closer home, reports have surfaced claiming that ByteDance is in talks with Reliance for investment in the short video app. While news around TikTok’s future is catchy, it takes away from the more significant shifts that are currently occurring in the global technology landscape.I am specifically talking about semiconductors.

The most important freedom we cherish

It is our 74th Independence Day. What is the uppermost thought on this day? It is of freedom. What kind of freedom? It is freedom to speak, to think, to express an opinion, to assemble as a group (without arms), to roam the country, to earn a living. After we gained independence from our colonial rulers, we gave ourselves a constitution as a democratic republic. That constitution is our sacred document, which protects our freedoms. It enshrines them as fundamental rights. There are both positive and negative rights. The right to free speech and expression, to dissent, to move freely and reside anywhere in the country, are all examples of positive freedoms.The negative freedoms are the right not to be harassed, coerced and illegally detained or incarcerated by the state, or the government. We also have the right to a clean environment, right to food, education and rural employment (NREGA). Soon we may have the right to internet interpreted as a basic right.Read More 

When will the coronavirus pandemic come to an ‘end’? February 2021

When will the coronavirus pandemic come to an end? The question is on everyone’s mind, and while astrologers and politicians have answers, few scientists want to be drawn into hazarding a prediction.

According to Union Health Minister Harsh Vardhan’s recent remarks, the spread of coronavirus has already been contained in India because “half the total cases are from three states only and another 30 percent from seven others.” But India has crossed two million Covid-19 positive cases and the graph continues to rise.

The endings

As Gina Kolata wrote in The New York Times earlier this year, medical historians recognise two types of endings. The medical ending, when the disease stops spreading; and the social ending, when people overcome their anxieties and move on. It would be appropriate to add a third type of ending: the political, when the government decides that as far as it is concerned, the pandemic is over. Any of these three endings could occur first, as political leaders and society can decide to move on regardless of whether the cases have peaked. If we look at the world today, it would not be overly cynical to conclude that politicians would rather move on, and that societies are distracted to such dysfunctional levels by social media-driven outrage cycles that they often ignore the extant pandemic. Maybe India is already at this point.Read More

India needs to be more mindful in regulating non-personal data

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.In September 2019, the Indian Government formed a committee chaired by Infosys co-founder Kris Gopalakrishnan to look at the regulation for non-personal data. The committee recently came out with a governance framework, comments to which can be submitted by August 13.As far as I can tell, the committee is one of the first efforts in the world to exclusively look at non-personal data, which itself is a vast term. Non-personal data refers to the universe minus personal data. This can include a company’s financials, information on a country’s infrastructure projects, traffic data and so on. Besides, unlike the mandate to regulate personal data, where the goal is to put more power in the hands of the users, the committee is tasked exclusively with unlocking the value of non-personal data.

Building temples of modern India

The Bhakra Dam in Himachal Pradesh, on the River Sutlej, is one of the largest gravity dams in the world. Thereservoir it creates, spread over 168 square kilometres, is the third largest in India. The waters of Bhakra provideirrigation for 10 million acres of agricultural land across Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan. It also generates about1500 megawatt hydroelectric power, which is used across six states. When Jawaharlal Nehru poured the firstbucket of concrete during the construction phase of the dam, he said: “This is a gift to the people of India and tothe future generations”. And he insisted that a memorial be constructed for workers who built the dam. The hugeconcrete dam took a total of 15 years to build and Nehru dedicated the dam and irrigation project to the nation inOctober 1963, with these famous word: “This dam has been built with the unrelenting toil of man for the benefitof mankind and therefore is worthy of worship. May you call it a Temple or a Gurdwara or a Mosque, it inspiresour admiration and reverence.”Read More 

Why Amazon, Apple, FB and Google are in the dock. It’s not just about economy

There was quite a bit of symbolism when the CEOs of Amazon, Apple, Facebook and Google appeared before the anti-trust committee of the House of Representatives of the US Congress last week. Here were the heads of the world’s most valuable companies, captains of the tech industry and some of the world’s richest men summoned to defend themselves before elected representatives of the world’s most powerful state.

All four men looked suitably humble and contrite. They even dispensed with their trademark Silicon Valley superhero costumes for the sober formal suit — well, at least on their visible upper bodies. So, here was the State demonstrating its supremacy over private companies, with the richest merchants of the kingdom bowing before the monarch’s court.

Yet, the hearing itself was conducted using a videoconferencing application over broadband internet, demonstrating just how dependent the modern State is on technology companies. Despite the Covid-19 pandemic — and indeed because of it — the four companies have outperformed the rest of the US economy. Together they are currently worth almost $5 trillion. On the day of the anti-trust hearing, they, together with Microsoft, represented over 20 per cent of the Standard & Poor’s 500 stock market index. Such a concentration of wealth is extraordinary and has taken place after 42 years. As for ordinary citizens, as a New York Times journalist admitted, it is impossible to live without using the technology and services they provide.Read more

NEP 2020: A Lot to Look Forward to in the Indian Education Sector

After several consultations on the draft National Education Policy 2019 with stakeholders in the education sector, the Government of India announced the National Education Policy (NEP) 2020 on Wednesday, 29 June. The NEP 2020 envisages commendable changes in the way education will be delivered in India.

It does so by emphasising on universal Early Childhood Care and Education (ECCE) and foundational literacy and numeracy, capacity building of teachers, and making the system more flexible for students by allowing them to to choose their subjects.However, a few points of concern remain. These include the emphasis on mother tongue as the language of instruction till fifth grade, which if brought into effect, might infringe the autonomy of parents. It may also force all universities and colleges to become multidisciplinary, while their potential for such transition remains unclear.The real test lies in how the provisions in the policy will be supported with the envisioned budget.Read more

What we learned from the US antitrust inquiry

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.This week gave us one of the most significant developments in antitrust that we have had in a long time. The CEOs of Google, Apple, Amazon, and Facebook publicly sat down for an antitrust inquiry. As a general principle, I try to stick to developments that can have the most significant impact in India. However, the issue with technology, and with events such as this, is that they can have ripple effects in how these companies operate around the world (including India).Before the hearing began, two major points struck me. Firstly, it seemed a bit unfair that all four CEOs had to be questioned at the same time. Given how different the nature of each company is, it did not seem fair to address them all in six hours. Secondly, I predicted that going by an Apple commissioned report, the hearing might be an exercise in cross-talking.

A national vaccination campaign ought to be run like an election

Sometime over the next 12 months, a vaccine against COVID-19 is likely to be available. The task of administering it to few hundred million people—perhaps even over a billion—so that India acquires herd immunity appears daunting. That is, until you realise that India routinely carries out a task of the same scale and similar complexity fairly regularly. I’m referring to elections. If you think about it, a national vaccination programme is like a general election, but at much lower temperatures. It is a good idea to approach it as one because our elections involve a combination of administrative machinery, mindsets and behaviours that are ideal for a rapid national vaccination programme.Read more

The People’s Liberation Army is strong. But it has four weaknesses

It hasn’t fought since 1979; it has been corrupt; it lacks skilled personnel; and it has financial issuesThe People’s Republic of China (PRC) will be celebrating the 93rd founding anniversary of the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) on August 1. Consolidated in 1927 during the Nanchang uprising by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP), PLA was formed as an armed wing to counter the Kuomintang’s anti-communist purges during the Chinese civil wars. Since then, PLA has become the world’s largest armed force with around 2.03 million active and 510,000 reserve personnel.In its recent history, it had two important turning points. First, the United States (US)’ use of advanced and sophisticated weaponry in the first Gulf War of the 1990s compelled PLA to pursue technological advancement. Two, the Central Military Commission (CMC) chairman, Xi Jinping’s championing of the Chinese dream to make PLA a world-class force by 2049 led to its restructuring and rapid modernisation. However, despite the technological advances and growing military might, PLA has key weaknesses. Here are the four most important challenges for PLA at 93.The article was originally published in the Hindustan Times.

That magic potion called education

Take one swig of this magic potion called education, and you will become invincible, like the Gauls of the Asterix comics. It is the secret to a better quality of life for yourself and family. It is also the foundation for sustained growth of the economy. Future growth will depend not so much on expanding the area of cultivation of crops, or building bigger factories and buildings, or faster cars or microchips. It will depend on building a large stock of “human capital”.That human capital is nothing but a culmination of education. That capital creates future innovations, productive ideas, creative products and processes, which in turn contribute to economic growth.So our biggest investment priority for the future should be education. How to plan for the future? A Confucian proverb answers it best. It says: If you want to plan for a year, plant some rice. If want to plan for the next ten years, plant a tree. If you want to plan for a hundred years, then educate your children.The New Education Policy (NEP) announced this week is not too soon. And it is also not the first one. The first one was passed by Parliament in 1968 based on the recommendations of the Kothari Commission. The second one was passed in 1986, which was revised in 1992. The present one is the third one. In essence it is a paradigm, a framework, which lays downs certain key focus areas and priorities. It is to be implemented jointly with the states in the next 20 years.Read More 

Are we seeing the beginnings of an ‘Indian internet’?

Almost a month ago, the Ministry of Information Technology took the unprecedented step of banning 59 apps/services on the purported grounds that these services were prejudicial to the sovereignty and integrity of India. At the time it was unclear what a ban entailed and how it would be implemented and/or enforced.

However, the subsequent weeks between companies voluntarily suspending their services, Apple and Google de-listing them from their respective app stores and telecom service providers being ordered to block these apps, the ban has been 'technically' enforced from the perspective of an average user that may not want to navigate the world of Virtual Private Networks (VPNs) and TOR. So, for now, it appears that we have the answer to the second question.

Reports now suggest that 47 more apps could be facing a ban with another 275 being monitored closely.

Forests, trees and branches of the internet

In the context of the stand-off between India and China, these moves have and will be portrayed as a strong response to China. As Alex Stamos (former CSO at Facebook) of Stanford's Internet Observatory illustrates there are several overlapping considerations - many of these are applicable to India too.

Thus, as far as the future of the internet in India (and even the world) goes, these developments cannot be viewed in isolation. And must be looked at in combination with recent events in India, its stated position on cyber sovereignty as well as global trends.

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iPhone 11 is now ‘Made in India’, but Modi govt must see it doesn’t get too taxing for Apple

If you purchased an iPhone 11 recently, chances are that you have in your hands a smartphone assembled in India. After over a year of speculation on whether or not Apple will assemble its top-of-the-line product from a factory in India, news emerged last week that the iPhone 11 has indeed been “Made in India” at its contract manufacturer Foxconn’s plant near Chennai. This is good news that the Narendra Modi government can well claim as a success. But it’s important to understand why it is good news and what kind of success it is, to ensure that new government policies do not undermine this achievement. Read more  

What is driving China’s aggression?

There has been growing debate in recent times in India and other countries about China’s aggression. What’s driving Beijing to engage in contests on multiple fronts, be it Hong Kong, the near seas, or India, particularly amid a pandemic and economic weakness? Is it opportunism? Is it hubris? Is internal turmoil and insecurity leading to the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) lashing out? Or are there structural factors that one must consider?Read the full article in The Hindustan Times.

Apple’s Anti-trust Hearing May Be an Exercise in Cross Talking

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.In an event that is set to send sparks flying throughout the global tech ecosystem, the CEOs of Apple, Amazon, Google, and Facebook have agreed to testify to the American Congress for an anti-trust inquiry. Even before the inquiry, there has been cynicism around whether it is a good idea at all to have Tim Cook, Sundar Pichai, Jeff Bezos, and Mark Zuckerberg answering questions so close to each other. Because all of these companies have very different business models, the limited time is likely not going to be enough to achieve a lot.Each of the four companies has been labelled as potentially ‘too big’ and arguments have been made in favour of breaking them up. But it is only Apple that comes to the event with a very recent chip on its shoulder. The App Store was involved in a very public fight with Basecamp around whether an app by the developer should be allowed on to the platform without paying the 30% cut that Apple charges.

The environment and economy can be friends

Are economic development and environment preservation antithetical to one another? The clear answer is no. It is possible to have clean air and water, less pollution and still be a prosperous country. Indeed the evidence is compellingly on the other side. The hallmark of a developed country is when you can drink water from the tap without worrying about filter or aqua guards. The municipal water supply is potable. Even the air quality in most advanced economies is much better than some of the poorer economies. Germany boasts of producing more energy from wind and solar than by burning coal. The United Kingdom will abolish all coal-fired electricity in the coming decades. One of the oldest articulation of the compatibility of development and environment was the speech given by Indira Gandhi at the United Nations Conference on Human Environment in Stockholm in 1972. She said: “We have to prove to the disinherited majority of the world that ecology and conservation will not work against their interest but will bring an improvement in their lives.” She meant that the fight against poverty was consistent with sustainable and ecologically responsible development.Read More