Forget Job Creation, India is LOSING Jobs

This is the eighth edition of The Jobscape, our weekly round-up of news and opinion on the state of employment and job creation in India. In this edition, we look at lost jobs, the new reservations, sexism, and much more.Read more

No first use, for us and for all

In my previous column "Towards global no-first-use"(November 20), I had argued that as India acquires a reliable nuclear triad — the ability to carry out retaliatory strikes by land, air, sea, and under-sea — we must adopt a new approach to our nuclear policy: “The completion of the triad calls for a profound review of India’s policy on nuclear weapons. Now that we are close to achieving credible second-strike capability, we must shift focus from negotiating our way through international nuclear weapons control regimes to shaping a world where these weapons of mass destruction are not used.”I go on to advocate that India persuade China and other nuclear powers and champion a “global no-first-use” (GNFU) policy, wherein all the world’s nuclear states declare that they won’t carry out first strikes. Obviously, this is going to be very hard. Obviously merely declaring no-first-use won’t be enough to prevent the outbreak of nuclear war. Yet the GNFU is the only feasible first step in avoiding a nuclear catastrophe, intended or accidental.India is perhaps the only nuclear power that can credibly champion GNFU because we ourselves are doctrinally committed to NFU. If our commitment to NFU were to weaken, our ability to champion it globally would weaken even more. So it is with some concern that I read a very well-argued piece by Kunal Singh in Hindustan Times that drew attention to the new strains on India’s NFU doctrine.Singh gives three reasons why India’s NFU doctrine must be reviewed. First, India would need to rely on nuclear weapons to counter China’s growing conventional superiority. Second, that Pakistan’s acquisition of lower-yield battlefield nuclear weapons demands India neutralise them before they are used against our forces. Third, that India has access to technologies makes it easier to adopt a first-strike posture today, than 15 years ago, when the doctrine was first promulgated.Let’s examine each argument in turn. First, China’s conventional military advantage is real but can be countered without changing the nuclear doctrine. Not all of its firepower and forces can be concentrated against us — for it has other, stronger, strategic adversaries — so what concerns is the fraction it can dedicate in and around the Indian subcontinent. What this implies is that we must cooperate with China’s adversaries to ensure that it remains engaged in many places elsewhere. What it also implies is that we must take our own conventional military modernisation seriously: Fixing the dysfunctional procurement system and getting out of the fiscal hole of ballooning revenue expenditure ought to be top priorities.In my view, we can continue to manage China’s military preponderance in such ways.Also, let me be a little naughty here and say that the strategists in Beijing don’t entirely believe our solemn declarations that we won’t use nuclear weapons first. In an earlier column on nuclear doctrine, I had pointed out “any declaration of no first use by one side cannot avoid being seen by its adversary as a deception for a surprise first strike. It is the fear of unacceptable damage caused by being at the receiving end of a nuclear attack that prevents either side from using them first. This is the essence of nuclear deterrence.”Second, should we threaten first strikes to counter Pakistan’s well-advertised readiness to use battlefield nuclear weapons? There is no reason to believe that the Pakistani military-jihadi complex will be deterred from using cross-border terrorists should India adopt the first-strike posture.In fact, it would make terrorism a far more valuable instrument. If the space between a terrorist attack and a nuclear attack is reduced, the Pakistani establishment will find it much easier to blackmail us and scare the rest of the world. Instead of ending up in such a situation, it is far better to stick to our current position: That a nuclear attack will invite massive retaliation. It doesn’t matter if the Pakistanis call their weapons “tactical”, “theatre” or “battlefield”— if used against our territory or troops, they must expect certain massive retaliation.Third, the availability of new technology and the modernisation of India’s arsenal does not in itself call for a change of doctrine. Few proponents of first-use are conscious of the costs of a first-strike arsenal and the command and control infrastructure required to manage it. Fewer still are conscious of the arms race this will set off, without a commensurate increase in national security or planetary safety. The folly of American and Soviet nuclear strategy during the Cold War ought to warn us against getting onto a slippery slope where nuclear weapons will be abundant, but security scarce.Without a doubt, the Indian government must conduct regular, official reviews of its nuclear weapons policies. Academic debate on the merits of retaining or abandoning no-first-use is very important. At this time though, no fundamental change is warranted. On the contrary, it is far more in India’s interests to invest in the diplomacy that reduces the salience of nuclear weapons.This piece was originally published in Business Standard

How the lack of ‘dharma’ caused the CBI crisis

To untangle the sordid controversy over the removal, restitution, and re-removal of Alok Verma as the Central Bureau of Investigation (CBI) director, it is useful to look at the affair from the perspective of ‘dharma’.Now the word ‘dharma’ is derived from the root ‘dhr’, which means ‘to hold together, to preserve, maintain or keep’. Dharma, therefore, is a set of norms, rules, behaviours, thoughts, and actions that keep something together. It is contextual, depending on what the ‘something’ is.Of course, the word ‘dharma’ is also used to refer to righteousness, duty, morality, law, and religious denomination. But at the heart of it, dharma is still about holding things together: from day-to-day interpersonal affairs to human relationships to political institutions. It follows that ‘adharma’— that is non-dharma or anti-dharma — would cause things to break up or collapse. The CBI controversy is an example.Indeed, it is impossible to diagnose the steady collapse of governance and public administration in India without reference to ‘dharma’. The simple question is: Are the individuals concerned acting in ways that hold the institution together? Are they acting in ways that preserve the trust that people have placed in them? Are they acting in ways that the social contract between the government and the governed is maintained?Read more

Go Easy on Amazon and Flipkart

The FDI in e-commerce policy clarifications made by the DIPP was done in order to help the small retailers from getting exploited at the hands of the big e-commerce players. While it may help them in the short run, an atmosphere that is not conducive to investment in this sector is bound to hurt them in the long run.Both Amazon and Flipkart have planned to approach the government together to reconsider these provisions. If they fail to convince the government, they will shrink the size of their future investments. This can have a significant negative effect on the entire e-commerce sector and can lead to job losses due to the closing of their private labels. Not to mention the loss of the number of jobs they would have created by their extension plans. Cities in the US are fighting with each other to provide incentives and attract Amazon’s second headquarters, while the Indian government is driving away from the investment.Finally, the decision is bound to hurt the Indian consumers. By limiting the number of discounts given by the private labels, the consumers will have to pay a higher price for their purchases. It will also reduce the variety of goods that are available to the consumers for online purchases.Vertical integration can have anti-competitive practices but can be dealt with in a far more efficient manner than outright bans on such operations. Antitrust authorities across the world have tools to recognise and prevent practices that can hurt consumers and small retailers. The competition commission can be given the mandate to develop these tools and implement them instead of killing the goose that lays the golden eggs.Finally, this would also be the right time to revisit the policy of not allowing FDI in multi-brand retail. The parochial fears of potential harm to small retailers are overplayed in the public discourse. All of the small retailers in question have benefited massively from the presence of these platforms. They are now able to reach an unimaginable number of customers because of the platform. Similarly, multi-brand retail can have a massive positive effect on economic growth and job creation.Read More

The three elements of China’s innovation model

In November 2018, the New York Times published a series that began with a story titled, The Land that Failed to Fail. The central argument of the piece is that defying Western expectations, the Communist Party has maintained its control in China while adopting elements of capitalism, eschewing political liberalisation, and pursuing innovation. The last of these three — innovation — is the subject of this piece.What drives innovation in China? This is not merely a question about the mechanics of policy, the might of capital, the determination of dogged entrepreneurs, or the brilliance that is conjured up in university dormitories. Increasingly, it is a question that has acquired geopolitical significance, not just in the context of power politics but also in the debate over fundamental values about the political and economic organisation. In other words, the question that China’s march towards becoming a “country of innovators” raises is whether a political system that prioritises control can foster genuine innovation.Answering this requires an understanding of the key elements of the Chinese model of innovation. To my mind, there are three key components of this model—state support, a systems approach towards the development of new technologies and businesses, and building an effective “bird-cage.” There are, of course, other factors like the pursuit of prestige, the desire to rebalance the economy, the need to enhance the effectiveness of governance, and the size of the consumer market, which supports innovation. But it is the first three components that form the key pillars of China’s innovation model.Read More...

Understanding Witch Hunts

One of the signs of good literature is the ability to stay relevant with the passage of time. Arthur Miller’s play The Crucible, written in the 1950s, uses the Salem witch trials as an allegory for the paranoia surrounding Communism in the US after the end of the Second World War. It is a testament to the strength of the play that it resonates just as strongly in the world of today, with the fears around fake news and the targeting of individuals and communities.The play has a fairly straightforward narrative (minor spoilers to follow): a group of young women lie and claim that certain members of their town are indulging in witchcraft. This sets off a chain of events both absurd and scary, with the accused being presumed guilty until they either confess (leading to a loss of reputation and property) or refute the charge (leading to a death sentence).Read more

Beyond Modi waves, Ravana airports: What media failed to report on Indian Science Congress

The amount of information in a message, American engineer-mathematician Claude Shannon realised, is closely associated with its uncertainty. Shannon’s pioneering work on information theory follows from the simple insight that the more surprising a message is, the more information it carries. If you get a text message saying ‘the sun will set around 6 pm this evening’, you are likely to ignore it. But if the message reads ‘expect heavy snowfall tonight’, you would be jolted into attention.That’s because it is almost certain that the sun will set in the evening, but the chances of snowfall in India anywhere south of the Himalayas are almost zero.That’s why bad news makes headlines. Conversely, we should start worrying if good news is considered headline-worthy. That’s why most of what was reported about the 106th Indian Science Congress last week was about ancient Indians possessing stem-cell technology and the need to rename gravitational waves as Modi waves. As Roshni Chakrabarty, a journalist covering the Congress, wrote there were ‘hundreds of mind-blowing, groundbreaking lectures’ but what caught public attention were the two making outlandish claims.Read more

Safeguarding Liberty Against Mobilised Violence

The Bulandshahr incident of December 2018 bears all the hallmarks of mobilised violence: an undisguised political purpose, backing from well-organised groups, and a disregard for the lives of civilians and police personnel alike. In addition to the loss of life and property, such violence undermines a state of liberty in the country. For the violence is often directed against a diversity of opinions, be it on grounds of religion, language, eating habits, caste, or any of the other aspects of our lives that set us apart from each other and that form the basis for our richly plural society. The principle of liberty requires us to respect these differences and to let individuals determine for themselves the way they want to live. Mobilised violence strikes against this principle. It prevents individuals from expressing themselves in the present through brute force and creates a chilling effect that prevents more expression in the future for fear of reprisal. This erosion of liberty leaves our society poorer.Any intervention to alter this status quo will not be an easy one. The change that is most needed is an enlightened citizenry, one that respects the liberty of others. After all, every individual acting as part of a mob has a choice to not engage in violence. We must move towards a society where more individuals make the right decision when faced with this choice.Read more

Token Security or Tokenized Security

There is a need to protect the data belonging to individuals in these situations, providing the government with two possible policy options: it can choose to either overhaul the Aadhaar architecture completely, or it can build in additional security measures to ensure that individual data is not compromised.

Uninventing Aadhaar is not a practical proposal. It would have to include repealing the statute on Aadhaar, disbanding the database already created, and figuring out alternative means of delivering the services that are now dependent on Aadhaar. A more sustainable way forward is to better secure Aadhaar. This will involve not only the secure collection and storage of personal data but also a safe regulation of the manner in which third parties use it for authentication.

Read more here.

What the GDPR Means for India

As the GDPR seeks to protect data users in Europe (and regions where the EU laws apply), it might not really make a difference to data users in India. However, this law extends to both citizens as well as non-citizens within the boundaries of the continent. So, if you have plans to travel to Europe, you have the added advantage of being covered by the protections under the GDPR as soon as you land there.On the other hand, the GDPR requires companies all over the world to comply with its provisions if they provide any goods or services anywhere in Europe, or in any manner monitor the behaviour of any individuals in Europe. This means that some Indian sectors such as information technology, the outsourcing industry, and pharmaceuticals might be hit by the GDPR. As the penalty for a contravention is up to 4% of the annual turnover of the company, this is not a trivial obligation for affected Indian data controllers.

However, the biggest impact of the GDPR for India is probably the indirect or the persuasive impact.

Read more here.

The Unique Challenge of a Data Protection Law

We started this Brainstorm still reeling from the sweet rush of the Supreme Court decision declaring privacy as a fundamental right in India. This was followed by the encouraging news of an Expert Committee working on a new data protection law. Things seemed to be moving in the right direction: individuals would be vested with certain rights with respect to their data, and there would be certainty in terms of what data collectors could and could not do with this data. But the past few months have shown that this is no easy task.One of the objectives of any law is to legislate for the future: to ensure that the law is durable and stands the test of time. With data protection, we are witnessing a situation where our needs are in the present and there is no guarantee that they will remain the same in the future. We are grappling with defining the problems we face and brainstorming about possible solutions at the same time, with understandably mediocre results.Take the ongoing Aadhaar case in the Supreme Court and the recent revelations of the data harvesting from Facebook by Cambridge Analytica. There is an urgent need for clarity on both fronts, and yet, none is likely to be available anytime soon. These two cases reflect several of the challenges highlighted by our participants over the past few months of our discussion. They showcase the fragility of consent in the data-rich world of today. They show that the scope for data protection is vast and there are people from all walks of life who will be affected by it. They stress the need to equip individuals with rights to their data that they can understand and exercise. And enveloping all this is the realisation that any regulation of the field must not be dogmatic and rigid, but instead be in the form of an enabling institution that endures.Read more here.

The Devil in the Details

A week ago, the Justice Srikrishna Committee released a draft Personal Data Protection Bill and a Report to go with it. This is another step in the progress that has been made in the past year to create a data protection framework for India. It started with the Supreme Court judgement that recognised privacy as a fundamental right. This was followed by the constitution of the Justice Srikrishna Committee, the release of a White Paper, and public consultations on the recommendations made under it.The Bill and the Report, which had been expected for the better part of six months, have already attracted a flurry of critical commentary. While there are elements of these documents which are welcome, there are also serious concerns that require further attention.One of the positive aspects of the proposed law is its attention to detail. It is comprehensive and ticks most of the boxes that a data protection law ought to have. It vests individuals with certain rights with respect to their personal data, imposes obligations on entities that collect and process such data, and envisages a regulatory infrastructure that is supposed to facilitate the ecosystem within which data is collected, processed, and transferred. The Bill is also applicable to State entities, which is an upgrade over the status quo.Read more here.

We Live in Multiple Neighbourhoods

2018 was the year when India looked beyond Pakistan and South Asia. Let 2019 be the year when India reimagines itself as an important node in several neighbourhoods.Read the full article on Pragati here.

All Roads Lead to the Middle Kingdom

In January 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping stood at the podium in Davos defending economic globalisation. He argued that the world needed to “adapt to and guide economic globalisation, cushion its negative impact, and deliver its benefits to all countries and all nations.” And in this process, “China’s development is an opportunity for the world.” All of this was, of course, in the backdrop of the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency in the US.Addressing deputies at the National People’s Congress in March 2018, Xi doubled down on that message: "China will contribute more Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and Chinese strength to the world, to push for building an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world that enjoys lasting peace, universal security, and common prosperity. Let the sunshine of a community with a shared future for humanity illuminate the world!"Both of those speeches reflected strength. The essential message they conveyed was that the world needed China. And under Xi, China now was surer about its destiny and keener than ever to play a larger international role. Yet as 2018 unfolded, this narrative came under severe strain. To assess how, we need to look at three dimensions: Xi’s status as the core of the Communist Party, the pushback against BRI, and the deepening competition with the US. It is the interplay of these three that is shaping China’s future.Read More...

Soft Power Is Not Power

‘Soft power’ is overrated. In India, it is over-celebrated too. The idea enjoys support across the political spectrum: Shashi Tharoor is an articulate proponent, and so is Venkaiah Naidu. Everything from Indian films, cricket, cuisine, yoga, spirituality, and the insufferable television soap operas are claimed to be elements of India’s soft power.After all the self-congratulation is done with, there’s little empirical evidence to show that all these things actually constitute some form of ‘power’; and if they do, that India can do something with it.Indeed, if soft power were something, the governments of our immediate neighbours ought to have been favourably inclined towards us. After all, on a per capita basis, it is perhaps the people of Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Pakistan who are the foreign consumers of India’s cultural exports. Yet, even if they like Indian films, music, and celebrities, popular attitudes and their governmental policies towards India are not reflective of that warmth. Further afield, the richer states of the Arabian Gulf and South East Asia might well watch our films and dance to our music but have a condescending view of Indians and India. For all the praise of our soft power, its effect is negligible in the manner in which foreign countries vote on important national issues.Read more

The Economic Agenda for 2019

The focus has to be on reforming PSU Banks and managing the fiscal situation both at centre and states.The fiscal situation in the country continues to be under severe strain, and with the impending general election, there is a severe danger of setting the clock back. The finance minister has continued to assert that the fiscal deficit target for the year will be complied with. The GST collections have lagged the budget estimates. The government will minimise the shortfall by claiming undistributed collection of cesses and IGST. There will also be additional allocations needed for Ayushman Bharat, additional food subsidy bill due to higher minimum support prices, more funds may be injected to Air India and additional provision may have to be made for MGNREGA.The fiscal situation of the states is likely to turn fragile. The farm loan waiver poses the greatest risk to fiscal consolidation. As the states have to seek the permission of the Centre to borrow, limiting their borrowing to conform to FRBM limits will crowd out capital expenditures which will have adverse effects on growth. Already, there is additional outgo on account of UDAY, and escalation in subsidies and transfers is the last thing that is needed now.Read the full article on The Financial Express here. 

India needs an action plan after US troops leave Afghanistan

Donald Trump is under heavy criticism for ordering a withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Afghanistan. Whatever you might say about the manner in which he made and announced his decisions, on Afghanistan at least, he is not wrong.If you look at it from an American perspective, it’s hard to explain why US troops are still in Afghanistan. Bin Laden is done, al-Qaeda has been nearly decimated, and an Afghan government the US midwife has been in power for several years now. The government controls only around 60 per cent of the country and the Taliban have been growing stronger over the past couple of years. The cultivation and export of narcotics have also been growing.No one, however, can credibly argue that if the US continues to remain in the country, the security situation will improve in the next three, five, or ten years. After 17 years, hundreds of lives lost, over a trillion dollars already spent, and an annual budget of hundreds of billions of dollars, the question is whether the cost of staying is worth the benefits. It is reasonable for a thoughtful American to conclude that now is a better time to pull troops out of Afghanistan than later.Read more

A Late Thanksgiving for Turkey

Over the last few months, after winning a closely-fought election, Recep Tayyip Erdogan has successfully manoeuvred Turkey into a position of influence by smartly using the cards he has been dealt. On the other hand, the country’s economy is almost certainly on the brink of recession because of his mismanagement. In the aftermath of Donald Trump’s announcement of an imminent withdrawal of US troops from Syria, it’s worth taking a step back to understand the geopolitical hurricane that Turkey is now in the eye of, and what its next move might be. Read more here:https://www.thinkpragati.com/world/6561/a-late-thanksgiving-for-turkey/

Indian Army must work on inducting women in combat roles

The presence of women in combat roles is a matter of mindset, and what better place to change it than the Indian Army?The issue for the Army to ponder is not whether women can be inducted into combat roles, but how to make it happen. Otherwise, it is a matter of time before India’s legal system forces the Army’s hand. It has already done so in the case of granting a permanent commission to women. Moreover, the IAF has already inducted three women fighter pilots and the Indian Navy recently confirmed that induction of women as sailors was under consideration.Arguably, the field conditions in the Army are much more rugged and proximity to comrades and adversary poses greater challenges. But the point is that if women volunteer despite these challenges, the Army should not resist. The cultural argument put forward by the Chief of the Army Staff (COAS) that the rank and file, who are mostly of rural origin, may not be ready to accept a woman as their officer could be true but is surely not an immutable condition.Read more here:https://theprint.in/opinion/indian-army-must-work-on-inducting-women-in-combat-roles-or-court-may-force-its-hand/165252/

Should India move towards germline gene editing aka genetically modified babies?

Chinese researcher He Jiankui – who announced on YouTube in November that he successfully modified the genes of Lulu and Nana, healthy newborn twins – has taken mankind one step closer to becoming the superpower that can triumph even nature in selecting our own genes. Scientists worldwide are appalled at Jiankui’s violation of a self-imposed moratorium by enabling the birth of genetically edited children.But before we dread a future of designer children and super soldiers strutting around, we need to look at how germline gene editing – an inheritable change in the genetic code – may be particularly relevant for India with a high predisposition to genetic disorders and lack of affordable healthcare for the less-privileged. So, it makes sense for the country to invest in prophylactic technologies instead of therapeutic approaches. Read more