An insider look into what Russia actually thinks of India

Last week, several members of India and Russia’s think tank community sat down for two days of conversation in Moscow. Since so much of our knowledge on Russian affairs comes filtered either through the prism of Western reportage or through pro-establishment Russian media, engaging in closed-door discussions with leading intellectuals and policy influencers was particularly valuable. Here are some of my impressions after participating in the talks.First, what came across quite clearly is that the Russian establishment sees itself in a state of siege. US sanctions have raised international pressure on the country — even if the Russians are loath to admit it — and are pushing Moscow into greater isolation. Consequently, the paranoia of the siege mentality colours both elite and popular perceptions of international events. So the Russians might see, say, India’s closer engagement of the United States, Australia, and Japan, in the form of the Quad, as partly inimical to their own interests. They are aware but do not give too much credence to the argument that the Quad is part of India’s effort to manage China’s rising power in our extended neighbourhood.Read more

A Time to Make Ethical Decisions

A couple checks into a clinic and looks up a menu of options: blue eyes, fair skin, excellent hand-eye coordination, good runner, team player. They are opting for the “sportsman” package with a few cosmetic perks for their future child. Having made their choices, they walk away. A few weeks later, their desirable embryo is implanted and nine months later, they welcome the child who they want to be the future captain of the Indian cricket team. Let us look elsewhere in the world: In a hidden laboratory, an evil scientist is creating a super-race with characteristics like immense muscular strength, obedience, quick healing – basically your standard “Wolverine” with the added feature of inherent loyalty. Is this the futuristic scenario that pops in your head when you hear the word ‘germline gene editing’? Some find the power to control our own genes fascinating; others find it repulsive but primarily many fear what this power could do to the human race. But as we worry about whether gene editing will be the bane of humanity, we turn a blind eye to gene editing – the savior of humanity. Read more

Fix call drops and sluggish speed before you think of regulating internet

India’s regulators work in mysterious ways. Take the Telecom Regulatory Authority of India (TRAI), which has suddenly decided that it wants to regulate internet services. As its name clearly suggests, TRAI’s job is to regulate the telecommunications industry. These are the companies that own and operate the “pipes”, like fiber-optic cables, towers, base stations, satellite transponders, undersea cables, switches, and networks. TRAI also regulates companies that provide some basic services that run on these “pipes”, namely telephony and the internet.Like its counterparts around the world, it does not, thankfully, regulate services that run on these “basic” services. That’s why you don’t need to apply for a license when you set up a website or launch an app.Looking at TRAI’s ‘Consultation Paper on Regulatory Framework for Over-the-Top (OTT) Communication Service’ that closed Monday, I’m left wondering just why would it want to introduce a digital licence-permit raj by asking whether “over the top” (OTT) services ought to be regulated, and if so, which ones and how.Read more

Chinese gene-edited baby row rekindles need for guidelines in India

The global scientific community has been outraged by Chinese scientist He Jiankui’s claim of creating the world’s first genetically modified baby using the gene-editing technique CRISPR-Cas9. The scientist claims that baby Lulu – who differs from previous recipients of gene therapies like Layla Richards¹ – was born with a genetic modification and will pass it on to any child she may have in the future.On ethical and safety grounds, scientists worldwide have abstained till now² from genetically-modified embryo experiments. However, the Chinese case hints that some researchers may be secretly competing to outbid their peers in creating gene-editing based solutions. There have also been instances of biohackers crafting DIY CRISPR kits³, affording buyers with elements that could be used in home experiments.Read more

India needs Reforms 2.0 to save both bureaucracy and good IAS officers like H.C. Gupta

How is it that despite widespread corruption, inefficiency, and incompetence across governments, India remains a country where, by and large, people are relatively safe, secure, and prospering?Because, the outcome of the actions of the good people in government still outweighs the actions of the bad ones — even if the number of good people is comparatively small. Conversely, if a government department, industry sector, or state is dysfunctional, it is because it either has too few good people or that its ‘system’ is tuned to unduly amplify the actions of bad people.On the balance, in my subjective opinion, India’s ‘system’ is still tuned to amplify the good. However, our society, which has been in a state of moral panic for the past decade, is turning the knob dangerously backward.Read more

China and the Kerch Strait

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine following Sunday’s incident in the Kerch Strait. According to the Ukrainian Navy, Russian forces fired upon its vessels, injuring at least three sailors. Russian forces then reportedly captured three Ukrainian vessels along with 23 crew members. Moscow claims the vessels had entered Russian waters, failed to follow laid down protocols, and engaged in “provocative” actions.During Monday’s meeting in New York, Nikki Haley, the US’s UN representative, described the incident as a case of “reckless Russian escalation” and “aggression.” European Council President Donald Tusk has assured that the EU stands united behind Ukraine. In contrast, China’s deputy permanent representative to the UN Wu Haitao called for “restraint” and emphasised the Chinese approach of “objectivity and impartiality” in relation to Russia-Ukraine tensions. Wu further added that “China respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries including Ukraine.” Wu’s remarks underscore the delicate balance that Beijing is seeking to strike in terms of deepening its ties with Russia while distancing itself from Putin’s foreign policy adventurism. In this context, Sunday’s incident presents Beijing with a set of pitfalls and opportunities.Read More

India has learnt to live with a bomb, now it must be open to gene editing too

Even if this week’s news – that He Jiankui, a Chinese scientist, has produced gene-edited babies – had been found to be false, it would only have been a matter of time before someone did it successfully. The technique used for gene-editing, called CRISPR-Cas9, is relatively simple to use and a decent laboratory anywhere in the world will be able to carry it out.You can’t un-invent this. And if you try to ban it, you’ll drive the industry underground, which means only the unscrupulous and the shady will have access to it, and good people won’t. Gene editing is not like nuclear weapons whose manufacture needs a lot of money, lots of space, a complicated global supply chain and government support. As Sandhya Ramesh reports in ThePrint, you can order a gene-editing kit online for $159. So, it is something that a good laboratory technician can do without too much money or attracting too much attention.Read more

Where Are the Jobs?

This is the seventh edition of The Jobscape, our weekly round-up of news and opinion on the state of employment and job creation in India. In this edition, we look at the jobs mantra during elections, the eternal promise of reservations, trade wars, Brexit, and Facebook trying to wash away its sins.Read more

India will stay relevant in Afghanistan, Taliban or no Taliban

The action is fast and furious. Taliban representatives have attended peace talks in Moscow for the first time. Almost simultaneously, the US special envoy has broken a taboo and opened direct talks with the Taliban office in Qatar. Pakistan has released one of the founding members of the Taliban after eight years. In Afghanistan itself, a US general has been wounded in a Taliban attack and there are daily reports of the ever-increasing numbers of Afghans getting killed by Taliban terrorists.Such is the fluid state of political affairs in Afghanistan today that these highly divergent events are all unfolding concurrently.Amidst all these fast-moving political developments, it was the Moscow round of talks that attracted the most attention in India. India has consistently maintained that it supports an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process. So, sending retired diplomats as observers at the Moscow round of talks naturally sparked speculation that India was reversing its policy on Afghanistan. Interestingly, some commentators have, in the past, accused India of doing exactly the opposite — blocking attempts by the Afghan government to negotiate with elements such as the Taliban.Read more here>

Towards global no-first use

While Modi government’s claims that India’s nuclear ballistic missile submarine (SSBN) carried out a deterrence patrol are exaggerated, it is a fact that we are getting closer to that milestone. The capability to launch nuclear-armed missiles from nuclear-powered submarines is widely regarded as the greatest form of deterrence a country can possess.Read more

How to Regulate Internet Platforms Without Breaking Them

The biggest anticompetitive element of platforms is the violation of neutrality. When the platform, such as Amazon, also acts as a player on the very platform, it can lead to a conflict of interest. Once vertically integrated, the platform has an incentive to exclude competitors either directly by delisting competing vendors or indirectly through higher commission fees and manipulating the rankings.

Anticompetitive mergers and acquisitions of platforms also tend to go under the radar, as competition authorities normally make the decision to investigate cases according to a monetary threshold. However, the monetary value of a deal may not always highlight its anticompetitive effects. Stories of big technology firms acquiring small start-ups at bargain prices are quite common. The value of these start-ups could lie in the networks (user bases) or the data they possess. Thus, it would make sense for competition authorities to automatically review any deal that involves an exchange of certain forms (or a certain quantity) of data. If this principle had been in place, Facebook’s acquisitions of WhatsApp and Instagram would have come under greater scrutiny.

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Vote For Jobs

This is the sixth edition of The Jobscape, our weekly round-up of news and opinion on the state of employment and job creation in India. In this edition, we look at political party manifestos, the effects of DeMon, and how companies are upskilling their employees.Read more

India’s smartphone revolution is a phenomenon on the scale of Independence in 1947

Media headlines reporting research results often distort findings — substituting ‘newsworthiness’ for accuracy. The newsworthiness falls into two broad categories: “Whatever you thought you knew about this subject is completely wrong” or “research confirms what we knew to be right all along”. So, when a headline on BBC World this week announced that “a rising tide of nationalism in India is driving ordinary citizens to spread fake news”, we should wonder which of the two newsworthy categories it falls into.Unless you’ve been blissfully living under a rock somewhere without internet, the BBC’s principal claims aren’t too surprising: A lot of fake news that is circulated seeks to promote pride in national identity; Right-wing networks are better organised to push such narratives; and finally, there is “overlap of fake news sources on Twitter and support networks of Prime Minister Narendra Modi”.Now, your decision to believe and forward a particular tweet, image, or text message depends on four things: What you believe must be true (conditioning and bias); what you’ve said about it in the past (history); what others in your groups are saying (social proof); and what someone you respect says (authority). Your “fast brain” processes all of this in less than a second, and your fingers do the forwarding immediately after. You don’t look for evidence, you don’t look for counter-claims, and very often, you don’t even reflect on what you’ve read and forwarded. In fact, you don’t use the “slow brain” at all, because you’ve scrolled down and moved on to the next message. Don’t feel bad. You are not alone. Most of us are like that.Read more

Jobs From Abroad

This is the fifth edition of The Jobscape, our weekly round-up of news and opinion on the state of employment and job creation in India. In this edition, we look at how international trade creates jobs in India, how many ‘Australias’ of jobs India has to generate, our abysmal gender bias, and job scams.Read more

India has Statues of Celebrity, Duality and of course, Gandhi’s Statues of Ubiquity

If it is the world’s tallest statue of one of the Indian republic’s greatest leaders and promoted by its most powerful contemporary one, it will, of course, receive a lot of public attention. But unless you are the Nizam of Hyderabad or some other reluctant prince who had to be, er, strongly persuaded to accede to the Indian Union, you won’t be opposed to a statue of Sardar Vallabhbhai Patel.You might, however, be either amused or dismayed by the BJP’s appropriation of Patel and his misprojection as an anti-thesis of former Prime Minister Jawaharlal Nehru. The great leaders of India’s independence movement did not operate in the small-minded manner as the current ones do — they certainly had differences of opinion but were for the most part respectful of each other in public. Patel and Nehru had different backgrounds, worldviews, and temperaments, but did not allow their differences to descend into the low politics of rumour and squabble. If Patel united the territory of India, Nehru united its people, and together with the other stalwarts of that generation created this great republic.Read more

The Xinjiang Playbook

To blunt criticism about its policies in the Xinjiang region, the Chinese Communist Party has adopted a set of measures ranging from denial to opinion management.

A cursory scan through Chinese State media talks about the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as a place that’s becoming more secure, where tourism is booming, infrastructure is getting upgraded and poverty is reducing. That’s the Xinjiang that Beijing wants the world to talk about. Unfortunately for the Chinese leadership, that hasn’t been the case over the past few months.In mid-August, experts from the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination questioned the policies adopted by the Chinese Party-state with regard to the Uighur population in Xinjiang. Members of the committee argued that there had been credible reports that, “upwards of a million people were being held in so-called counter-extremism centres and another two million had been forced into so-called ‘re-education camps’ for political and cultural indoctrination.” All this, of course, is being done in the name of stability and combating extremism and terrorism.Situated in northwestern China bordering the stans to the west, Xinjiang is home to over 11.3 million ethnic Uighurs. These are largely Muslims of Turkic origin, who have their own language and culture. The region is also home to roughly one-third of China’s natural gas and oil reserves, along with key mineral deposits. In addition, Xinjiang is the Belt and Road Initiative’s gateway to the West. Given this, stability and integration i.e. policing and sinicisation, have been key planks of the Communist Party’s policies in Xinjiang. These assumed greater significance as the security situation in the region deteriorated early in President Xi Jinping’s first term and in the backdrop of the escalating conflict in Syria.Read more here>

Who Wants a Sarkari Naukri?

This is the fourth edition of The Jobscape, our weekly round-up of news and opinion on the state of employment and job creation in India. In this edition, we look at a range of jobs from tech and AI and how to eradicate manual scavenging.Read more

India moved on so quickly from Amritsar rail tragedy that it forgot to ask key questions

Less than two weeks have passed since the horrific tragedy near Amritsar where 59 of the people celebrating Dussehra on railway tracks were killed, and over 100 more injured, by a passing train. Yet, like many other such tragedies in India, it has already disappeared from public discourse.A simple analysis using Google Trends shows that interest in the Amritsar tragedy peaked on 20 October, a day after the accident, and sharply declined over the next few days. In fact, by 23 October, searches for Amritsar tragedy fell below that for “Narendra Modi”, indicating that Indians had moved on. Just for context, more people were searching for “Virat Kohli” than for the accident in a mere two days after its occurrence. If we always knew that we, the people, didn’t care much for the loss of lives in accidents, we now have nice charts to show for it. The people affected, their loved ones, the citizens of Amritsar and the people of Punjab will, in decreasing order of time, remember the tragedy. The rest of us will move on.Read more

The addictive nature of bad policies

Al Capone, the infamous prohibition-era US gangster, once remarked, “I am like any other man, all I do is supply a demand.” In Bihar, the smuggling supply chain has already been well established. Around 6.5 lakh raids have been conducted and 1.22 lakh people have been arrested. Altogether, 16.4 lakh litres of Indian-made foreign liquor and around 12.4 lakh litres of various types of country liquor have been seized so far since the law was enacted in 2016. The seizures and arrests reflect the prevalence of the problem. Some of the seized illicit liquor started disappearing from police stations as well.

Further, crime statistics also betray the ineffectiveness of the law. Total cognisable crimes rose 11% in April 2016 to December 2017 period compared to the same period before prohibition. Crimes related to other prohibited substances have increased as well.

There are also significant socioeconomic losses. At least 35,000 direct jobs have been lost as 21 alcohol manufacturing plants and 5,500 retail outlets have been shut down. Add to this the number of indirect jobs lost, because of forward and backward linkages, and the number becomes daunting. For instance, tourism in Bihar has taken a hit. The food and beverage sector revenue declined by around 30%. Room occupancy rates have drastically fallen and corporate conferences and events have almost completely stopped.

Finally, as expected, Bihar’s finances have taken a toll. The 2017-18 financial year saw an approximate loss of ₹5,500 crore because of lost revenue from excise and value-added tax (VAT). To compensate for this, the Bihar government has raised the VAT on 600 other items and has also resorted to higher state borrowing, which has pushed up the fiscal deficit. The loss in revenue from taxing alcohol has also impacted government expenditure. Expenditure across crucial sectors, such as education, pension, health, and energy was much lower than the budgeted figure. The political parties promising prohibition in Madhya Pradesh are also promising a farm loan waiver, another bad policy that is contagious. Funding a farm loan waiver, while losing out on the excise revenue, would derail state finances.

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The Answer is Blockchain

This is the third edition of The Jobscape, our fortnightly round-up of news and opinion on the state of employment and job creation in India. In this edition, Industry 4.0 holds a lot of hope for the future of jobs.Read more