Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
Jamal Khashoggi’s murder an opportunity for Turkey to be Sunni powerhouse of Middle East
The murder of one-time Saudi regime insider and columnist Jamal Khashoggi in Istanbul has become riveting for many reasons. The mysterious circumstances around Khashoggi’s death inside the Saudi consulate, the gruesome manner in which he was done away with, the place w+here it all happened, and the key players in the aftermath and their potential fates are playing out in international affairs over the past two weeks. Added to these ingredients is the masterfully tantalising manner in which the Turkish government has played the narrative.Khashoggi’s murder may have started out as an extraordinarily miscalculated external move in Saudi domestic politics, but has already become – if Turkey’s president has his way – a pivotal moment, both in the regional tussle for dominance and the global play for leadership of the Islamic world.Read more
The many ways India must NOT think about China
One of the positive trends in India’s think tank community in the past few years is the emergence of institutes that aim to study China. Last week, journalist Nitin Gokhale reported that the ministry of external affairs has set up a new think tank that includes members from intelligence, defence, and trade. The higher education system has invested in setting up a few new centres that will observe and analyse China from various perspectives and purposes. This ought to have started at least a decade ago, but better late than never.Many educated Indians can name at least half a dozen states of the United States and their respective capitals. Bengaluru and Hyderabad are likely to score higher on this test. However, even among the more informed Indians, it is hard to find people who can name a few Chinese provinces. Similarly, a lot of Indians know excruciating details about the US political system, can identify US administration officials, senators, and governors. But few will know the name of a third Chinese leader after President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. Language, openness, and greater people-to-people interaction are perhaps responsible for this asymmetry, but it is astonishing – and a matter of concern – that an average well-informed Indian knows relatively little about the big neighbour to our north. Our knowledge of China is dangerously inverse to the country’s importance to us.Read more
Empowerment and Fragility
Zeynep Tufecki’s book, Twitter and Tear Gas, is an insightful analysis of the impact of social media on protests and social movements in today’s radically networked societies.
Zeynep Tufecki’s book, Twitter and Tear Gas, is an insightful analysis of the impact of social media on protests and social movements in today’s radically networked societies.
Most of the commentary about the role of social media in creating political communities either glorifies these media platforms (think Arab Spring) or vilifies them for their propensity to spread fake news and to create echo chambers (think Trump’s election campaign). Zeynep Tufecki’s book, Twitter and Tear Gas, however, provides a much-needed nuanced analysis on how digital platforms have altered the way in which a social movement’s dynamics play out. With the aim of understanding the challenges and strengths of digital activism, Tufecki tells a fascinating story of how social media empowers protests while simultaneously also exacerbating the fragilities of these movements.It is well known by now that the primary strength of networked public protests is the speed with which a large number of people and resources can be mobilised. This is because social media makes it easy to find people who share your political viewpoints even across geographical boundaries. What is not obvious, however, is that the speed and ease of participation also become a weakness of the networked movements. This is because ad hoc planning doesn’t allow for building capacities among protesters, which is needed to sustain a movement in the long-term. Often this results in the networked movements facing a tactical freeze in the face of changing circumstances.Read more here>
China’s big plan for AI domination is dazzling the world, but it has dangers built in. Here’s what India needs to watch out for.
China has been one of the early movers in the AI space, and evaluating its approach to AI development can help identify important lessons and pitfalls that Indian policy makers and entrepreneurs must keep in mind.
Why there is an increasingly global pushback against China…
For some strange reason, many people in the world believe that China’s leaders are astute but inscrutable strategists, with an unusual ability to both think long-term and do long-term. Why do I say strange? Well, look at the scorecard as it stands today.
First, from well before the global financial crisis of 2008, China had begun deliberately antagonising every single one of its large neighbours and bullying the smaller ones. This pushed countries from as far as North America, Australia, the Western Pacific, and the Indian subcontinent together into a closer embrace. Now, these happen to include the world’s strongest military, economic and technological powers.
In its sixth decade, R&AW needs to look at the world outside terrorism
In this, its sixth decade of existence, the task for the leadership is to look at a world outside terrorism and to take stock of new and emerging threats. Already, its counterparts in other parts of the world have begun looking at new frontiers.
Without HUMINT assets, it will gradually become only a collection agency and not an anticipatory agency
The Research & Analysis Wing, the department I served in for 37 years, is 50. It came into being on September 21, 1968, following a realisation that intelligence had been inadequate during the 1962 Indo-China conflict. This year is also the 100th year of the birth of its first chief, the legendary R N Kao.It was one of the first such post-Independence structures created for a specific need, much like the nuclear establishment and ISRO. It owes much to the vision of Prime Minister Indira Gandhi who recognised that a modern state needed an agency for external intelligence.Indira Gandhi chose Kao, then in the Intelligence Bureau (IB), to set up a specialised and independent organisation. V Balachandran, in his excellent commentary on the R&AW on its 50th anniversary (‘Struggling to preserve ‘Kaoboys’ legacy’, The Tribune, September 30, 2018), writes ‘Kao told me that the only advice Indira Gandhi gave him in 1968 was not to structure the new organisation as a Central Police Organisation (CPO). In this she did not mean to deride police work but that foreign intelligence needed something more than police skills. Police is a hierarchical and transparent organisation, accountable to law and society for their actions’..….whereas foreign intelligence often operates outside the law.Read more here>
Is the Jobs Crisis a Skills Crisis?
This is the second edition of The Jobscape, our fortnightly round-up of news and opinion on the state of employment and job creation in India. In this edition, there’s good news from renewable energy and the gig economy — but with a caveat: the skilling gap.Read more
Sabarimala temple ruling distances courts from Indians steeped in tradition
The more I think of it, the stronger are my fears that the Supreme Court’s verdict in the Sabarimala case will hurt the very Indian republic that allowed a deeply iniquitous tradition to be overturned, allowing women equal rights to worship at the Sabarimala temple in Kerala. I am not a conservative defender of religious traditions. Far from it, I say this as a liberal nationalist with deep convictions in the Enlightenment values enshrined in the Indian Constitution.Why? Because the court’s decision further distances constitutional order from a large part of society that remains wedded to tradition. And why is that a cause for concern? Because both a religious conservative and a liberal have one vote each, liberals are generally outnumbered and thus electorally outgunned. Democracy amplifies social reaction and creates governments, laws, law enforcement officials, and even judges who are likely to side with what is popular than what is constitutional. If you don’t believe me, just read the news. We are already in the middle of a moral panic where there is a finite risk that the current Constitution of India could be substantively amended if not replaced, almost as the immune reaction of an age-old civilisation that didn’t undergo the same intellectual-historical journey as western Europe.Read more
What Explains the High Demand for Low Paying Government Jobs?
We are increasingly seeing the phenomenon where there are an enormous amount of applicants for a few government postings. The big obvious question here is regarding the inexplicably high demand for low paying government jobs by apparently overqualified job seekers.
My hypothesis is that this can be explained by three factors:
- The number of private jobs available is obviously too few. Job creation has stagnated and even receded in the private sector. Thus, the industry does not have the capacity to absorb a large number of graduates and post-graduates who are passing out of the system. Since the supply of labour far outstrips the demand for labour, employees have increasingly stringent qualification requirements. Only the best of the lot get a good, high paying job in the private sector.
- There is also an obvious skills mismatch. A lot of the students who pass through the Indian education system are not as qualified as their degrees tend to signal. A typical Post-Graduate often has the skills of a person who has passed the 12th grade and thus, cannot obtain or at least retain a high paying job which would require the skills of a Post-Graduate (One report, for instance, finds that nearly 80% of the engineering graduates in India are unemployable as their skills set do not match the requirement of the industry). What further complicates this issue and turns it into a vicious cycle is the fact that a lot of individuals end up studying due to the lack of job opportunities. These are students who enter into an educational programme solely due to the signalling value and to differentiate themselves from the nearest competitors. However, while the degree gained has some signalling value, the skills gained are inadequate for industry standards.
- A person who has gained a degree but not the appropriate skills cannot get a job in the private sector which will assure a reasonably high salary and job security. The private sector option is typically a low paying job, which can be lost at any time and with no benefits. Given this scenario, a government job that is assured of job security, even at the cost of a lower salary seems attractive.
Democracy Strikes Back in the Maldives
A shrinking Chinese footprint in the neighbourhood is ideal for India, and New Delhi should send a clear message indicating that it will stand by the democratically-elected leadership, and not shy away from providing assistance when asked.Read more
After Abdulla Yameen, Maldives must now untangle the web of Chinese contracts
It looks like a fairytale ending. The people of the Maldives came together in large numbers and threw the tyrant out.Let’s make no bones about it: Abdulla Yameen, the man who was ousted this weekend and the Maldives’ incumbent president, is every bit of the bad guy of the story. He came to power under shady circumstances, indulged in an ‘orgy of corruption’, not least by selling out his country’s islands; was involved in refuelling North Korean ships in violation of United Nations sanctions; encouraged misogyny, and otherwise presided over a repressive regime that jailed or exiled every significant independent voice.Read more
Copping out on Privatisation
The recent bank merger between Bank of Baroda, Vijaya Bank, and Dena Bank is essentially a move of cowardice, and not the bold reformist step it is touted to be. The original plan (for reforming the banking sector) was to have just 6 public sector banks, and while Modi has reduced the number from 26 to 19, there’s still a far way to go. Further, the plan was not to achieve the reduction in numbers by merging all of the public sector banks into 6 mega banks that are still in government control, but to privatise them eventually.
The recent bank merger between Bank of Baroda, Vijaya Bank, and Dena Bank is essentially a move of cowardice and not the bold reformist step it is touted to be. The original plan (for reforming the banking sector) was to have just 6 public sector banks, and while Modi has reduced the number from 26 to 19, there’s still a far way to go. Further, the plan was not to achieve the reduction in numbers by merging all of the public sector banks into 6 mega banks that are still in government control but to privatise them eventually. However, the traditional governmental dislike for privatisation and the lack of political will in an election year resulted in this sub-optimal solution of merged banks.The merged entity is set to become the third-largest Indian bank, however, the size is hardly important. In fact, it would actually deter any real progress in reforming the banking sector. Another move of cowardice was in giving the assurance that no jobs would be lost due to the merger. Thus, the banks cannot really cut costs and achieve economies of scale in this aspect.Read more here>
Inter-caste marriages are good for health of Indians. That’s what DNA testing tells us
Among the most exciting discoveries in recent years has been in the field of genetics and genomics, as the deciphering of the Indian genetic code has yielded fascinating insights into, “Who We Are and How We Got Here”. That’s the title of Harvard scientist David Reich’s recent book on human origins as pieced together from our DNA.I may be biased, but the chapters about India — based on the work of Priya Moorjani, K. Thangaraj, Lalji Singh, Vagheesh Narasimhan and numerous other collaborators — are the most fascinating. Over the past decade, these scientists have uncovered compelling evidence showing that most people in India arose from a mixture of two ancestral populations that they call Ancestral North Indian (ANI) and Ancestral South Indian (ASI), and that the ANI component tends to be higher among upper-caste and northern Indians. Other researchers have added greater detail to the picture, showing that in addition to ANI and ASI, Andaman and Nicobar Islanders, Tibeto-Burmans and Austro-Asiatic groups contribute to the great Indian population mix.Read more
19 Million Applications. 62,000 jobs
This is the first edition of The Jobscape, our fortnightly round-up of news and opinion on the state of employment and job creation in India. In the months ahead, we hope to delve deep into the issue and bring you both fresh insights and sustainable solutions to a vexing issue. For more, follow us on Twitter at @20Mjobs.Read More
The Indian soldier feels let down by Army brass, Supreme Court and politicians
India’s geopolitical situation is crying out for a sharpened and relevant military instrument at a time when it is besotted by a host of issues regarding lack of political guidance, acquisition and equipping, civil-military relations, defence budget, inter alia.Read more
The Fallout of US Tariffs
Tariffs and other protectionist measures from the US have injected bitterness into its relationship with many countries and India is no exception to this.
However, if the current trend of protectionism in the US extends to other goods such as pharmaceuticals, or to services such as software, the US faces the prospect of losing this support base. Further, if the US were to lose the support from the south, the India-US relationship will again be seen largely from the prism of the Pakistan factor and the economic partnership will have to take a backseat.
The India—US defence partnership will also be weakened if trade barriers hinder the relationship between the two countries. Purchasing defence equipment is a strategic decision, not a transactional one for India. The risk of being overly dependent on foreign powers can be mitigated if we procure military equipment from countries with which we have extensive economic ties. However, if general trade between the US and India suffers due to increasing tariffs, defense procurement from the US would no longer serve a strategic purpose and India will lose the strategic leverage that comes from being able to favour a country that can give us something more than just military equipment.
Finally, tariffs will also affect business and investment decisions. Given the particular state of global finance, with increasing inflation in the US (partially caused by increased import costs) and higher interest rates as a result, the flow of portfolio and direct investment from the US to India will reduce. With India’s banking sector facing a severe crunch due to the high amount of non-performing assets, the need for private sources of funding for Indian companies will be acute. Simultaneously, China is continuously looking for opportunities to invest abroad, as witnessed by its aggressive buying of assets in other countries. The void that will be left by the US will be readily filled by China, and that is an outcome that neither the US nor India will be too keen to witness.
India must not hurry Narendra Modi into a summit with Imran Khan
It has been reported that the Pakistani army chief quietly reached out to India a few months ago “to open barriers to trade between the countries, which would give Pakistan more access to regional markets”. Given the dire economic situation Pakistan is in, good neighbourliness is anyway in Prime Minister Imran Khan’s interests at this time.But every time a new government comes to power in India or Pakistan, people start expecting dramatic progress in bilateral relations. Not just common people, but even old hands put hope ahead of experience and start pushing up expectations of thaw, progress, breakthrough, or even some kind of resolution of disputes.This doesn’t make sense because bilateral relations are not the way they are because of the personalities, preferences, or political ideologies of the elected leaders on either side. It’s not as if Narendra Modi or Imran Khan, massively popular as they are in their respective countries, can set aside what happened in the past, ignore the other players in the game and their respective calculations of gains and losses, and simply strike a deal.Read more
Mahathir rocks (Xi's boat)
I wish to report to you, dear reader, that Mahathir Mohammed, Malaysia’s remarkable nonagenarian prime minister, has proved me right. That’s one more reason for you to read the Asian Balance regularly. You will recall I’d argued that China’s massive Belt and Road infrastructure investments will be resisted by forces of nationalism extant in Asian countries.Read more
Imran Khan’s existential crisis in Pakistan: To cut or not to cut defence expenditure
Last week, when the US government announced it would “re-programme” $300 million in military assistance to Pakistan, it was only the latest in a series of actions that have ratcheted up pressure on Islamabad.A year ago, when US President Donald Trump announced his Afghanistan strategy, Pakistan came in for mention only in the context of his pledge to put more pressure on the country. Trump’s tweet on the first day of this year set the tone: the US has been foolish in giving Pakistan more than $33 billion over the past 15 years, “receiving only lies and deceit” in return. In an indication of his priorities, Trump blamed Pakistan for giving safe haven to the very terrorists that the US troops were fighting in Afghanistan. “No more!” he thundered.His administration has stuck to this line since then. Even as the Pakistani economy hurtled towards a deeper crisis, Washington has remained unsympathetic. For the first time in years, the Trump administration suspended a military education and training programme and excluded over 60 Pakistani military officers from various US defence academies. The financial cost of suspending this programme was trivial, but the signal was massive and aimed directly at the Pakistani military establishment.Read more
Modi has done the smart thing refusing UAE’s aid for Kerala. Stop the politics over it
The ongoing public debate on whether India should accept foreign aid to help Kerala recover after the flood disaster reminds me of an incident that occurred in December 2004.A couple of days after the devastating tsunami had ravaged India’s coastlines leaving hundreds of thousands displaced, I sought a meeting with Alok Prasad, India’s high commissioner to Singapore at that time. Several of my friends in the city-state were in the process of setting up collection points for relief materials, and I offered to help the high commission to use the internet to coordinate such efforts.Prasad’s response angered me. He said it wouldn’t be necessary and that the high commission would not encourage the NRI community to send relief material. Instead, he suggested that I direct people to donate to the Prime Minister’s National Relief Fund (which, in the event, many of us did). I recall Indian banks waived the usual remittance charges for such contributions.Read more