Cosplay to Command: Ishiba Shigeru’s Leadership
Japanese politics, much like the nation’s renowned maglev trains, finds itself in a state of suspension between stillness and drastic momentum. The recent dissolution of the Lower House and the upcoming parliamentary elections on October 27th have placed the country in a period of tense uncertainty, with the Liberal Democratic Party seeking to maintain its majority in the 465-member body.
Ishiba Shigeru secured a presidential win last month, emerging victorious in the LDP leadership race after having suffered four prior defeats. This win is historic for Ishiba and for Japan, as the election marked the first time in more than 50 years that nine candidates were in the running.
Background on Ishiba Shigeru’s Political Rise
Ishiba comes from a distinguished political family. His father, Jiro Ishiba, was a former mayor of Tottori and a member of Japan’s House of Representatives. Growing up in a politically active household, Ishiba was groomed for leadership early on. His extensive experience within government includes stints as Minister of Defense, Minister of Agriculture, Secretary General of the LDP, and Rural Revitalisation Minister, where he tackled Japan’s population decline and sought to decentralise Tokyo’s dominance.
However, Ishiba’s journey to the top has not been without setbacks. He was highly critical of members of his own party, and this contentious relationship was compounded by his brief defection to an opposition group in 1993, making it difficult for him even to obtain the 20 nominations required to qualify for the presidential race. Nevertheless, the fact that he received the required nominations this time signifies that he established better ties with party stalwarts over the years.
In contrast to his gravitas-laden political persona, Ishiba is known for his personal quirks, such as his love for collecting model planes and warships. These eccentricities make Ishiba a unique figure in Japan’s often stoic political scene, endearing him to the public. A self-proclaimed otaku (anime fan), he even featured in a public appearance dressed as a Dragon Ball character. While the image of him in a playful pink costume makes him seem disarming, his political stance is anything but; he is firmly focused on rearming Japan and strengthening its offensive capabilities.
Policy Platforms: Domestic and International
Ishiba’s domestic policies reflect a combination of traditionalism and reform. He is known for his liberal stance on certain social issues, such as advocating for married couples to have the legal right to keep separate surnames and supporting the idea of a female emperor in Japan. These progressive positions have set him apart from more conservative elements within the LDP.
His economic strategy focuses on revitalising rural areas and aiming to create a more inclusive economy that moves away from Tokyo-centric policies. However, given the state of the Japanese economy, he has a pressing challenge ahead. The Nikkei index plunged almost 5 points after news of his election, as he had stated his intention to maintain the Bank of Japan’s high interest rates.
In foreign policy, Ishiba has been vocal about creating an Asian NATO and wants the Self-Defense Force (SDF) to be based outside Japan's borders, such as in Guam. He has also expressed dissatisfaction with the US-Japan alliance, which he views as an ‘unequal relationship’. In Okinawa, which has the highest concentration of US troops in Japan, he has called for greater oversight of these bases, even suggesting that Japan should have a say in Washington’s nuclear strategy in Asia.
Dissolution of the Lower House
One of his first moves was dissolving the Lower House of Japan’s Diet, the national legislature. This decision aligns with Japan’s political tradition of seeking a mandate through a general election shortly after a leadership change. Such a move is often a calculated strategy to capitalise on a new leader’s popularity surge while approval ratings are still high and not give enough time to the opposition to consolidate and review his policies.
The dissolution, on the one hand, presents an opportunity for Ishiba to solidify his lead by winning a decisive majority in the general elections. On the other hand, it opens the door for opposition parties, such as the Constitutional Democratic Party of Japan (CDP) and the Nippon Ishin no Kai (Japan Innovation Party), to challenge the LDP’s dominance by appealing to voters frustrated by economic stagnation and growing inequality.
Key Issues in the Upcoming Elections
The elections are expected to center around issues defining the national debate in Japan, such as economic recovery, defence, and social welfare. At the same time, Ishiba’s campaign is likely to focus heavily on national security, especially given Japan’s strategic position in East Asia, where tensions with neighbouring countries like China and North Korea have escalated.
Domestically, economic recovery in the post-pandemic era remains a top concern for the electorate. Japan’s sluggish growth, rising public debt, and an ageing population are challenges that Ishiba and his team will need to address convincingly. Additionally, there are growing calls for social reform, including more inclusive policies for women and the youth.
Conclusion
While Ishiba enjoys a certain level of acceptance within his party, his ability to appeal to the broader electorate remains to be tested, with the results signalling either validation or rejection of his leadership. Unlike the Japanese Shinkansen, which has a determined path and destination, effortlessly gliding above the tracks, the country’s political future hangs in the balance, awaiting the propulsion of fresh mandates and decisions to set it in motion.
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