The Chagos saga is not over

Chagos saga is set to continue given its geopolitical and geoeconomic significance for actors in the Indo-Pacific region and beyond.

When Mauritius and UK announced reaching a political agreement over the Chagos archipelago on 3 October 2024, it initially appeared to be an historic occasion bringing to end a decades-long tussle between a post-colonial state and a former coloniser. But a closer reading of the agreement set against the contemporary realities of the Indian Ocean region reveals that the Chagos saga is not ending anytime soon because of the geopolitical and geoeconomic significance of the archipelago. More specifically, it is because of factors ranging from the difficulties of resettlement of Chaggosians who were forcibly removed in the 1960s to the rising strategic significance of the largest island in Chagos — Diego Garcia; and from the potential for Mauritius-Maldives maritime contestation to the expanding Indian involvement.

A brief timeline

But what is the UK doing in the middle of the Indian Ocean in the first place? Like every other piece of land in Africa and Asia, what is known today as Mauritius was subject to centuries of colonial machinations. The British ended up as the colonial power in Mauritius when it was ceded by France to the British in 1814 under the Treaty of Paris. Fast forward to the 1960s when Mauritius was on the cusp of independence, the UK did what it had perfected doing elsewhere including in the Indian subcontinent — make divisions. In 1965, the UK separated the Chagos archipelago from Mauritius and named it British Indian Ocean Territory (BIOT). The UK leased Diego Garcia to the US in the Cold War setting for developing a joint military base which was completed in 1973. About 1500 Chaggosians were forcibly removed by the British in the 1960s to make this base a reality. In 1968 Mauritius became independent but without the Chagos archipelago. This was the genesis of a decades-long tussle between the UK and Mauritius over Chagos sovereignty.

Fast forward again to 2016, when the 50-year lease to the US was set to end but was extended by the UK till 2036. While Mauritius had not tasted any international success on its Chagos campaign despite the support of India and other developing states, this soon changed in the landmark year of 2019 when Mauritius secured two big endorsements. That year, the International Court of Justice ruled (non-binding legal opinion) that Mauritius decolonisation was incomplete and unlawful and that Chagos should be returned to Mauritius. The United Nations General Assembly also voted in the same year in a near-unanimous manner in support of Mauritius. Building international pressure on the UK, in 2021 the UN’s International Tribunal for the Law of the Sea ruled in favour of Mauritius in a case that did not involve the UK — but the Maldives. Finally in 2024, after about two years of negotiations involving 13 rounds in total, the UK agreed to transfer sovereignty over Chagos to Mauritius.

Why Chagos matters

But where is Chagos and why does it matter to major powers and even Maldives? Chagos is a collection of roughly 60 islands in the middle of the Indian Ocean. Chagos is about 2000 kilometres from the Mauritian capital of Port Louis and 1700 kilometres from Kanyakumari in India’s south. But Maldives is nearby — Addu city is only about 600 kilometres from Chagos, resulting in the Maldives-Mauritius overlapping claims on exclusive economic zones (EEZs). The Mauritian EEZ including Chagos is nearly as large as that of India, that is, roughly 2.3 million square kilometres. But why Chagos matters to the UK, US, India, and even China is because of the strategic significance of the largest island in the Chagos archipelago — Diego Garcia. The UK-US joint military base is used by both naval and aerial platforms including submarines and bombers for refuelling and deployment. The significance of Chagos is also enhanced by the fact that it is in the vicinity of major shipping routes.

Essence of the agreement

Beyond the transfer of sovereignty over Chagos, the agreement between Mauritius and the UK also touches on Diego Garcia, resettlement and marine ecology. ‘For an initial period of 99 years, the United Kingdom will be authorised to exercise with respect to Diego Garcia the sovereign rights and authorities of Mauritius,’ announces the joint statement. Therefore, the military base on Diego Garcia will remain for at least the entirety of the 21st century. On resettlement, the agreement permits Mauritius to resettle the displaced Chaggosians in any manner in the islands of Chagos archipelago except Diego Garcia. The UK assures certain funding support for resettlement. Taking one more step towards correcting a historical wrong, the UK also has also agreed to ‘an indexed annual payment for the duration of the agreement.’ This means the UK would not be squatting over Diego Garcia anymore without some benefit flowing back to Mauritius.

The agreement also emphasises the need to protect ‘one of the world’s most important marine environments’ and proposes ‘the establishment of a Mauritian Marine Protected Area.’ While the motivation for including marine ecology in a political agreement over the future of Chagos is not fully explained in the joint statement, this inclusion is one of the factors that contribute to the continuation of the Chagos saga.

Four reasons why Chagos saga set to continue

The first reason is the vexed problem of resettlement of forcibly displaced Chaggosians who may find it difficult to return despite the promises in the agreement. Apart from the issues of infrastructure and cost, what will come in the way of sustainable resettlement of a few thousand Chaggosians who may want to return is economic livelihood. By declaring the area around Chagos a Marine Protected Area, lucrative economic activities including fishing may be restricted.

Second, the rising strategic significance of Diego Garcia. The agreement practically changes nothing for Diego Garcia and the military base it houses. While set up in the Cold War era when Soviets were the looming threat, in contemporary times the base has become important amid the US pivot to the Indo-Pacific. Diego Garcia gives the US military the ability to project force both in the Indian Ocean region, Indian subcontinent, South East Asia, West Asia and Africa. It backs US rhetoric of free and open Indo-Pacific with hard power. The base is poised to be an important element in any future US-China contestation.

Third, the potential for Maldives and Mauritius contestation over maritime boundaries. Historically, Maldives has found it difficult to take a clear position on the sovereignty question of Chagos. While it has favoured the UK claims at times, in August 2022 then Maldives’ President Ibrahim Solih recognised Mauritius’ claim. However, in December 2024, the newly formed government of President Muizzu criticised the same and ordered a review of Maldives’ position. At the centre of Maldives inconsistency, according to analyst Mimrah Ghafoor,  has been the approach of ‘upholding its claims within overlapping Exclusive Economic Zones (EEZs) and thus keeping access to rich fishing grounds, benefitting an industry that accounts for two-thirds of the country’s exports.’ How would Maldives and Mauritius settle the EEZ boundary after the transfer of sovereignty over Chagos has to be seen and potentially could lead to an escalation in the maritime contestation between the two island states.

Fourth, the Indian involvement. India has for decades supported Mauritius’ claim to sovereignty over Chagos archipelago. While a shared history of British colonisation may have provided the emotional impetus for promoting decolonisation in the Indian Ocean region, India has been acutely aware of the strategic significance of the Chagos archipelago. While neither India nor Mauritius have confirmed, various media reports, including a detailed investigation by Al Jazeera have pointed out how India has constructed an airstrip and other infrastructure for military purposes in Agaléga island about 1100 kilometres from Port Louis. As analyst Samuel Bashfield has argued, India has historically avoided ‘abstained from utilizing Diego Garcia’ and other islands in the Chagos archipelago over concerns that such attempts would lead to ‘accusations of double standards, and upset close relations with Mauritius.’ But by settling the sovereignty tussle in favour of Mauritius, the agreement opens up possibilities for India to work with the US for accessing Diego Garcia as well as building Indian facilities (for maritime surveillance, for instance) in the outer islands of the Chagos archipelago. Concerned about the increasing involvement of China in the Indian Ocean littoral states, an effort by India to have a presence in Chagos would fit in the decade-long trend of India attempting to expand its footprint in the region to counter China’s expansion.

Questions: some settled, some still open

The Mauritius-UK agreement is — notwithstanding the continuation of the Chagos saga — a positive step that addresses the unfinished business of 1960's decolonisation in the Indian Ocean region. For Mauritius, it is a clear win despite not getting hold of Diego Garcia. Mauritius succeeding after a decades-long struggle against a colonial power by effectively employing international law and normative power sets an example for small island states not just in the Indian Ocean region and the Pacific. The agreement also settles a thorny issue for the US — continued operation of a military base in a colonial possession has hurt the US’ push for a rules-based order in the Indo-Pacific. It had been hypocritical on part of the US to squat over Diego Garcia while at the same time target China over what the latter does in the South China Sea and elsewhere.

But what the agreement does not answer is how would the UK's authority to exercise sovereignty over Diego Garcia be operationalised. The joint statement notes that the ‘political agreement is subject to the finalisation of a treaty and supporting legal instruments.’ The questions about operationalisation of sovereignty over Diego Garcia, resettlement and Marine Protected Area may only be settled once the aforesaid legal texts are agreed to. However, irrespective of that outcome, the Chagos saga is set to continue given its geopolitical and geoeconomic significance for India, US, the UK, China, Maldives and Mauritius.

Feature image credit: ‘Map of Chagos Archipelago, BIOT’ @ Clever Clog (Licensed under CC BY 4.0)

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