Takshashila Issue Brief - China’s Zero COVID Policy & Protests
Over the last week, protests have erupted across multiple cities in China over the zero-COVID policy. Despite popular perceptions, protests are not uncommon in China. However, this time the protests appear to be targeted at the national level authorities, as opposed to the local ones alone, and they spread rapidly across the country, giving it a national character. The spread of these protests, which have been leaderless and fuelled by online anger that spilled onto the streets, bears the hallmark of the emergence of a radically networked society.
So far, the Chinese government has responded with heightened online censorship, takedown of protest-related videos and messages, and limited police actions to disperse the protesting crowds. Some local authorities have also announced rollbacks of strict lockdowns, exemptions from mass testing, and plans to ramp up vaccination, especially among the elderly and children.
Questions have been raised about the future of the zero-COVID policy, and even the leadership of President Xi Jinping who has personally endorsed the policy. As the clamour of protests is expected to sober down, in this Issue Brief we take a close look at the zero-COVID policy itself, its importance for the Chinese government and leadership, and the extent to which the ongoing protests have upset the status quo.
China’s COVID Strategy
Broadly, there are two types of strategies that countries have been using to combat COVID-19. The first type is the ‘zero COVID’ strategy used by China which has meant the implementation of strict, restrictive measures to stifle the spread of COVID-19. This includes complete lockdowns, severe restrictions on cross-area travel, mass testing, and mandatory quarantines.
The second strategy used by other countries, including India, has transitioned from lockdowns and testing to ‘living with COVID-19’. This approach has focussed on mitigation measures that help reduce deaths while trying to maintain economic stability and people’s livelihood. After the advent of vaccines, most countries have shifted to this approach.
While ruling out the idea of co-existence with the virus, the Chinese government has tried to ease the definition of zero-COVID over time away from eliminating all infections. For instance, over time, the definition of zero-COVID has been watered down from meaning no infections at all to a more relaxed criterion that looks at infection levels, trends of new infections, and the spread of infections outside of the quarantined area. However, this has had a limited impact on policy actions on the ground.
China’s zero-COVID policy has been draconian. The first and foremost criticism of it has been that the strict lockdowns are causing more harm than good - disruption in people’s livelihood, critical supply chains, and essential services. The lockdowns also prevent the population from accessing non-COVID medical care, leading to more morbidity and mortality.
With the rise of newer and more infectious variants of the virus, like the Omicron variant and its sub-variants, it is impossible to eliminate the virus and reduce the number of cases to zero. The zero-COVID approach also doesn’t differentiate between asymptomatic, mild, and severe infections. This leads to a lack of focus on the most vulnerable strata of the population (elderly, immunocompromised, and people with comorbidities). This lack of focus also means that the government is not using its resources on measures such as vaccinating the at-risk population.
Significance of Zero COVID Policy
From the onset of the pandemic, the Chinese leadership has viewed the public health challenge through the lens of its governing legitimacy. A large-scale outbreak and consequent breakdown of China’s healthcare system and loss of lives are to be avoided at all costs. The strict and often disproportionate response to COVID-19 outbreaks at local levels comes from this mindset.
The zero-COVID policy is postulated upon three indispensable goals: keeping the pandemic under control, letting ordinary people go about their normal life, and ensuring economic and social activities continue. Local officials are tasked with balancing the three goals with relevant measures. But at the ground level, it is extremely difficult to contain cases and let economic activities flourish. This contradiction is often resolved in favour of harsh lockdowns, given the political imperative. For instance, a significant number of Party cadres have faced disciplinary actions because of the emergence of outbreaks in their jurisdictions.
In addition, China’s adherence to this policy is part of a larger narrative of its success in leading the world in containing the pandemic, the heroism of the frontline workers, and Xi Jinping’s achievement in commanding the country through the pandemic. This is juxtaposed against the apparent failure of the US and other Western countries that fumbled in their early response to the pandemic. Some party officials in China have gone to the extent of claiming that the zero-COVID policy is necessary for future economic growth, thereby casting economic imperatives as a long-term consideration, while the pandemic is an immediate priority.
The Road Ahead
However, the protests have challenged this situation. The immediate response to the protests also suggests that there are likely to be more tweaks in implementation, if not the outright shifting of goalposts Thus, the policy has displayed a trend of “broad persistence with specific adjustments.” Therefore, we expect further adjustments to the policy in the coming weeks.
This, nevertheless, will be a dynamic process. There will be stops and starts. The general direction is likely to be toward a further opening, but large-scale outbreaks or deaths will likely impede this process. So, one should expect two steps forward, one step back situation. What’s worth watching is whether there is any significant effort made to boost vaccinations among vulnerable populations, particularly the elderly over 65 and 80 years of age.
This Issue Brief has been compiled by Shrikrishna Upadhyaya and Harshit Kukreja, with inputs from Manoj Kewalramani.
November 30, 2022.
Further Materials:
USCC Testimony on China’s Zero Covid Policy by Manoj Kewalramani
Interview: How China’s propaganda machine kept criticism of harsh Covid measures at bay – until now by Manoj Kewalramani
Tracking People’s Daily - Protests & Covid Policy by Manoj Kewalramani
Zero- COVID Protests in China by Manoj Kewalramani & Pranav Satyanath
