Takshashila Discussion SlideDoc - China’s Maritime Coercion Amid the COVID-19 Pandemic

Indo-Pacific Studies
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Executive Summary

This document assesses the recent escalation of coercive activities by the People’s Republic of China (PRC) in the South China Sea (SCS) amidst the outbreak of the COVID-19 pandemic. There are six explanations for PRC’s recent escalation of coercive behaviour.

  1. Opportunistic escalation amid pandemic distraction

  2. Coercing regional powers to accept fait accompli

  3. Deterring other actors by shows of strength

  4. Aiding domestic propaganda

  5. Offensive Defence

  6. Country/Context-specific issues

We assess that the probability for escalation of the crisis is the highest if there are collisions and accidents, declaration of an air defence identification zone (ADIZ) by the PRC or an attempt to forcefully change the status quo of the region.

Authors

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Aditya Ramanathan
Aditya Ramanathan

Aditya is an Associate Fellow with the Takshashila Institution. A journalist by training, he has previously worked at Mint and as a freelancer. He has also researched and written on colonial-era Indian military history.

Suyash Desai
Suyash Desai

Suyash was an Associate Fellow working in China Studies Programme at The Takshashila Institution from 2019 to 2022. His main areas of research were on China’s defence and foreign policies. He also publishes a fortnighty newsletter on the Chinese People’s Liberation Army called the PLA Insight.

Manoj Kewalramani
Manoj Kewalramani

Manoj Kewalramani is a Fellow-China Studies at The Takshashila Institution. His research focuses on Chinese politics, foreign policy and approaches to new technologies.

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