Takshashila Discussion Document - China’s Foreign Policy in the Post-Covid World Order: An Assessment
Executive Summary
Regime survival and stability are likely to remain as primary objectives of China’s international engagement. Prolonged economic slowdown, the threat of increased protectionism, and deepening frictions with the US will impinge on this objective.
Sino-US ties are likely to continue to deteriorate Middle powers like India, France, Germany, Russia, and Japan, are likely to enjoy greater bargaining power with regard to China. The dependence of smaller powers on Beijing is likely to increase.
BRI will likely become even more critical for China At the same time, project execution might become even more difficult.
China is likely to view US withdrawal from international institutions as an opportunity to expand its stake It will also compete more vigorously in the narrative space to craft a favourable public opinion. Expect intensified propaganda and misinformation campaigns from Beijing.
Beijing is likely to seek stability in ties with New Delhi along with greater access to the Indian market But its sensitivity to the Indo-US relationship or economic policies seen as targeting China can be expected to increase significantly.
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