Takshashila Issue Brief - The Sudan Situation & India’s Diaspora Evacuation Strategy
Introduction
Over the past few decades, the Indian government has successfully carried out numerous evacuation missions, rescuing its diaspora from precarious situations in different countries. Some notable examples include Operation Raahat in 2015, which evacuated Indian nationals from Yemen, Operation Safe Homecoming in 2011 during the Libyan civil war, and the large-scale evacuation of over 170,000 Indian citizens from Kuwait during the Gulf War in 1990. The most recent example is the evacuation of Indian students and professionals from Ukraine amid the Russian invasion.
Despite the successful execution of these missions, there remains an absence of a comprehensive and sustained policy to address such crises systematically, and the ongoing crisis in Sudan serves as a stark reminder of the need for a coherent and robust policy framework. The situation in Sudan has rapidly escalated, posing a significant threat to the safety and well-being of Indian nationals in the country. Prime Minister Modi convened a high-level meeting to address the urgent situation and devise a strategy for the safe repatriation of Indian citizens.
Traditionally, India's response to crises has been ad hoc, with diplomats in missions and embassies abroad making their own judgments about local logistics arrangements. The government typically relies on Air India, the Indian Air Force for air evacuations, and the Navy for sea evacuations. However, there are no dedicated resources for this challenging task, and a command structure or coordination mechanism is notably absent.
The recent developments in Sudan underscore the importance of not only addressing the immediate concerns of the Indian diaspora in Sudan but also the broader issue of developing a consistent and long-term strategy that can be employed in similar situations in the future.
Risks to the Large Indian Diaspora
India has one of the world's largest diaspora populations, with millions of Indian nationals living and working across the globe. As of December 2020, there were approximately 32 million Indian citizens residing abroad, including professionals, students, and blue-collar workers, while the annual overseas migration count is 2.5 million.
The Indian diaspora residing abroad expects their home country to support them during times of crisis. These individuals may encounter various risks in their host countries, necessitating a response from the Indian government. Responses could range from engaging in diplomacy to forcefully condemning actions at international forums. In extreme cases, the government may need to deploy armed forces and commercial resources to evacuate its citizens, potentially incurring costs of hundreds or even thousands of crores of rupees.
The numerical concentration of the Indian diaspora worldwide shows the highest concentrations in West Asia followed by North America. Evacuation plans must account for contingencies in every geographic area. A risk matrix for West Asia could look like this:
Capacity Analysis & Recommendations
In Takshashila Policy Brief - Capacity Analysis for Evacuation of Indian Diaspora, we carried out a capacity analysis of civilian and military assets required for successful evacuation, from both the air and sea routes. Based on the estimates in 2016 for India’s capacity, the policy brief concludes that, if necessary, India could successfully evacuate approximately 3 million Indians from Qatar within 13 to 42 days, and from Saudi Arabia within 15 to 50 days under specific circumstances or constraints. Likewise, evacuations from Fiji to India could be accomplished within 7 to 23 days.
We also made the following specific recommendations to boost India’s capacity to evacuate its diaspora in times of crisis:
Establishing an Overseas Crisis Management Group (OCMG) under the National Security Advisor would centralise the synchronisation and control of evacuation operations. The OCMG would coordinate with the military, bureaucracy, civil aviation, shipways, and diplomatic missions.
Securing rights to use private aircraft and ships is crucial for evacuation efforts. An emergency clause in licenses of commercial airlines and shipping companies would ensure their aircraft or vessels and crew are available during times of crisis to support national interests. This is especially important after the privatisation of Air India last year.
Indian Embassies/ Missions abroad must sign standing agreements with international logistics companies and transport operators for quick transportation and aid during evacuations. This would allow embassy staff to focus on pressing issues like visa arrangements or negotiating visa waivers during extreme circumstances when evacuation entails crossing more than one border. Both the Ministry of External Affairs (MEA) and the OCMG should maintain databases of logistics and transportation companies for Indian Missions abroad to utilise.
Establishing agreements with friendly countries, especially those near high-concentration diaspora regions, for sea and air bases is essential for successful evacuations. Maintaining strong diplomatic relations with countries hosting such Overseas Coordination Points (OCPs) is crucial. For instance, Djibouti plays a vital role in West Asia for diaspora security.
During evacuation planning, the OCMG can rely on the framework below for creating action plans given the cost and capacity constraints:
The Indian government's responsibility to protect its people abroad is not only a moral obligation but also an essential aspect of its foreign policy and diplomacy. By demonstrating a commitment to safeguarding the welfare of its diaspora, India strengthens its global standing and fosters goodwill among its citizens and the international community.
This Issue Brief has been compiled by Shrikrishna Upadhyaya, with inputs from Pranay Kotasthane (April 23, 2023).
