Takshashila Strategic Assessment - Russia - Ukraine Tensions: Assessing Risks for India

Key Judgments

• The recent Russian military build-up on Ukraine's border is likely to be a coercive 'threat in being' meant to apply pressure on the US and NATO. An overt kinetic conflict involving Russian and Ukrainian forces is unlikely in the next 12 months.

• In the next 12 to 48 months, deployment of nuclear-capable missiles with ranges upward of 500 km by both NATO and Russia may be a possibility.

• Over the next 48 months, higher political tensions and military preparedness may become normal in Europe.

• Ukraine and Georgia are unlikely to gain NATO membership in the next 48 months.

• In the unlikely event of a major overt offensive by Russian forces into Ukraine within the next 1 to 12 months, the US, UK, Germany, and other NATO members are unlikely to do more than impose sanctions on Russia and supply war material to Ukraine.

• If imposed on Russia within the next 2 to 24 months, prospective sanctions will be aimed at inflicting economic pain, degrading President Putin's power, and turning Russian public opinion against him.

• The prospective sanctions could specifically target the Nord Stream II gas pipeline and Russia’s access to the SWIFT fund transfer messaging service. They may also include individual sanctions against people seen as close to President Putin both in and outside Russia.

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