Recent Trends and Future Trajectories in Geo-Economics

Economic Policy
Written By Satya Sahu

Published August 2, 2024

Executive Summary

Satya S. Sahu

The Takshashila Institution organised a conference on 19th June 2024 to understand recent trends and project future trajectories in Geo-Economics. Takshashila's in-house scholars, Anisree Suresh, Arindam Goswami, Rakshith Shetty, Anupam Manur, and Sarthak Pradhan, presented papers covering diverse topics related to Geo-Economics. Bharath Reddy chaired the conference. This document is a compendium of two working papers presented at the conference.

In the first paper, Rakshith Shetty maps the flows, delays, and trajectories of the $100 billion Climate Finance Pledge. His paper finds that developed countries achieved the pledge two years late in 2022, with a significant portion coming from existing development aid rather than being "new and additional" as expected. The lack of a clear definition of climate finance has enabled double-counting and reduced transparency. The upcoming negotiations for the post-2025 climate finance goal provide an opportunity to rectify past issues and set a more ambitious, needs-based target.

In their paper, Anisree Suresh and Arindam Goswami assess the proliferation and effectiveness of free trade agreements (FTAs) and regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the context of a weakened WTO. It argues that RTAs are most effective when participating countries already have substantial pre-existing trade volumes. Developing countries must carefully consider the benefits and challenges of entering into RTAs/FTAs. The inclusion of non-trade issues like labour and environmental standards in FTAs can be detrimental to developing country interests if not balanced appropriately. The future of trade governance likely involves a two-pillar structure: WTO foundational rules plus decentralised mega-regional agreements setting new rules. Finally, streamlining RTAs/FTAs for WTO compatibility is crucial.

We welcome comments to build on and add to the ideas in this document. If you have any feedback, please get in touch with us at research@takshashila.org.in.

 

Authors

Featured
Rakshith Shetty
Rakshith Shetty

Rakshith Shetty is a Research Analyst with the Indo-Pacific Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution. His long-term project at Takshashila is working on China's Domestic Policies on Green Energy Capacities and Technologies, with a particular emphasis on their implications for India. His research interests span across Chinese politics, green technology, and the intricate dynamics of India-China relations.

Anisree Suresh
Anisree Suresh

Anisree Suresh works as a Research Associate in Geoeconomics at the Takshashila Institution. Her role involves exploring different aspects of international trade and India's geoeconomic interests. Prior to joining Takshashila, she served as a Senior Associate in International Relations and Strategic Engagement at the Centre for Public Policy Research (CPPR) in Kochi.

Arindam Goswami
Arindam Goswami

Arindam Goswami is a Research Scholar at Takshashila Institution, working in the High-Tech Geopolitics Programme. Arindam has completed a B. Tech. in Computer Engineering, an MBA in Marketing and Takshashila's GCPP course in Advanced Public Policy. He has worked extensively in the fintech industry. Until recently, he was heading the backend engineering at SonyLIV.

Satya Sahu
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