Recent Trends and Future Trajectories in Geo-Economics
Published August 2, 2024
Executive Summary
Satya S. Sahu
The Takshashila Institution organised a conference on 19th June 2024 to understand recent trends and project future trajectories in Geo-Economics. Takshashila's in-house scholars, Anisree Suresh, Arindam Goswami, Rakshith Shetty, Anupam Manur, and Sarthak Pradhan, presented papers covering diverse topics related to Geo-Economics. Bharath Reddy chaired the conference. This document is a compendium of two working papers presented at the conference.
In the first paper, Rakshith Shetty maps the flows, delays, and trajectories of the $100 billion Climate Finance Pledge. His paper finds that developed countries achieved the pledge two years late in 2022, with a significant portion coming from existing development aid rather than being "new and additional" as expected. The lack of a clear definition of climate finance has enabled double-counting and reduced transparency. The upcoming negotiations for the post-2025 climate finance goal provide an opportunity to rectify past issues and set a more ambitious, needs-based target.
In their paper, Anisree Suresh and Arindam Goswami assess the proliferation and effectiveness of free trade agreements (FTAs) and regional trade agreements (RTAs) in the context of a weakened WTO. It argues that RTAs are most effective when participating countries already have substantial pre-existing trade volumes. Developing countries must carefully consider the benefits and challenges of entering into RTAs/FTAs. The inclusion of non-trade issues like labour and environmental standards in FTAs can be detrimental to developing country interests if not balanced appropriately. The future of trade governance likely involves a two-pillar structure: WTO foundational rules plus decentralised mega-regional agreements setting new rules. Finally, streamlining RTAs/FTAs for WTO compatibility is crucial.
We welcome comments to build on and add to the ideas in this document. If you have any feedback, please get in touch with us at research@takshashila.org.in.