Takshashila Discussion Document - The India-Pakistan Conflict Escalation Framework

Indo-Pacific StudiesStrategic Studies
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Executive Summary

The India—Pakistan conflict has variously been described as an ‘enduring rivalry’ or a ‘protracted conflict’ — characterised by its long duration, recurrence of armed exchanges, and the involvement of state and non-state actors.

  • To explain this complex conflict analytically, a framework is presented in this paper which highlights the following:

  • There is an asymmetry in nuclear & conventional thresholds between the two states

  • There are a total of five conflict levels — the levels of conflict preferred by India are different from the ones desired by Pakistan

  • The different ways in which a conflict between the two states can escalate as a result of their differential conventional and nuclear thresholds

  • India will have to rely on its covert capabilities until it develops precise air strikes as a credible option for eliminating terrorists

  • India will have to enhance the credibility of its nuclear deterrence against all weapons of mass destruction

This realist assessment of the nature of the India—Pakistan conflict will be able to better explain the nuances involved during times of hostility between the two countries. It will help the decision-makers of both nation-states to make prudent judgment calls in de-escalating conflicts.

Authors

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Nitin Pai
Nitin Pai

Nitin Pai is co-founder and director of the Takshashila Institution, an independent centre for research and education in public policy. His current research includes the geopolitics of the Indo-Pacific; defence economics and the politics of radically networked societies.

Pranay Kotasthane
Pranay Kotasthane

Pranay Kotasthane is deputy director of the Takshashila Institution. Pranay’s current research includes high tech geopolitics and the politics of radically networked societies. Pranay teaches public policy, international relations, and public finance at Takshashila’s graduate and post-graduate programmes.

Varun Ramachandra
Varun Ramachandra

Varun Ramachandra is currently a PhD candidate in the political science department at the University of Rochester. His research interests include observational causal inference, bayesian inference, statistical inference etc. He previously worked as a Research Analyst with Takshashila from 2014 to 2016 where he focused on using econometrics, causal inference and data science techniques to tackle public policy issues.

Pavan Srinath
Pavan Srinath

Pavan is the Lead of Language Programming at IVM podcasts. He studied Biotechnology at IIT Madras. Pavan worked with the Takshashila from 2013 to 2019 in various capacities as a researcher.

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