Takshashila Discussion Document - China's Economic Outlook in 2015

Indo-Pacific StudiesStrategic Studies
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Executive Summary

China’s real economy grew at an average rate of 9.8% annually for the last thirty-four years, up to 2013. In October 2014, the International Monetary Fund declared China to be the world’s largest economy measured in Purchasing Power Parity exchange rates. China has also the dubious distinction of the emerging world’s second most indebted country with total non-­financial debt at 217% of GDP. China’s growth rate has slowed. As it sets out to tackle the debt burden, it will slow even further, complicating its stated goal of rebalancing growth away from investment to household consumption. The one potential safety valve is a huge currency devaluation – something that it resorted to in 1993, with chilling effects on the rest of Asia in the years that followed.

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V. Anantha Nageswaran
V. Anantha Nageswaran

V. Anantha Nageswaran is the current Chief Economic Adviser (CEA) to the Government of India. He is an economist and has worked for Credit Suisse in Switzerland and Singapore, and for the Union Bank of Switzerland. He was previously a councillor and a co-founder of the Takshashila Institution.

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