Geoeconomics Conference
The Takshashila Institution organised a “geoeconomics conference” on 13th April 2022. The session was chaired by Narayan Ramachandran, co-founder and senior fellow at the Takshashila Institution. The speakers for the session were Dr. Ajay Shah (Research Professor of Business, Jindal Global University), Dr. Amol Agarwal (Assistant Professor, Ahmedabad University) , Dr. Rajeswari Sengupta (Associate Professor, Indira Gandhi Institute of Development Research ), Dr. Renu Kohli (independent economist), Dr. M Govinda Rao (member 14th Finance Commission & Councillor – the Takshashila Institution), Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon (Director of the Strategic Studies Programme, the Takshashila Institution), Anupam Manur (Professor, the Takshashila Institution), Pranay Kotasthane (Deputy Director, the Takshashila Institution) & Arjun Gargeyas (Research Analyst, the Takshashila Institution)
The aim of the conference was to develop a better understanding of the changing(ed) global scenario in the aftermath of the pandemic & the Russia-Ukrainian War and its impact on India, and the way forward. The audience for the event was Takshashila’s staff, extended network, and some select alumni. The conference was structured like an informal round-table conference.
The conference started with Narayan Ramachandran discussing the intersection of different geoeconomic and geopolitical factors at the present and how this could lead to a new regime – a G2.5 World with impeded globalisation. Anupam Manur gave a crisp presentation on the changed global growth projections (in the aftermath of the Russia Ukraine war) and the inflationary tendencies (trends in food, energy, and metal prices).
This was followed by Dr. M Govinda Rao’s talk about India’s growth prospects and how they have changed due to both Covid and the war. Dr. Renu Kohli analysed India’s short, medium and long-term growth prospects. She highlighted the erosion of competitiveness in the Indian economy, the low multiplier effect of public capital expenditure in the Indian context, and the uncertainties related to asset monetisation. Dr.Rajeswari Sengupta shared her insights on the inflationary pressures on India. Dr. Amol Agarwal went down the lanes of history to explain the present global context. He also highlighted that the South Asia region is going through its own economic crisis – Nepal, Pakistan, and Sri Lanka. Dr. Ajay Shah stressed how there used to be an optimistic view of globalisation. But now decision-makers of top world corporations will be more reluctant and look at multiple factors, like religion, freedom of speech, etc, before investing.
Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon talked about geopolitics trumping geoeconomics and the weaponisation of economics in the current context. Arjun Gargeyas highlighted the rise of techno nationalism and how it is creating barriers for tech corporations. Pranay Kotasthane shared his insights on the implications of the changed global context on the semiconductor industry.
The session concluded with a discussion on the possible policy options for India.