Daily Brief – July 10, 2026
| AUTHOR | West Asia Desk |
| DATE | July 10, 2026 |
| CATEGORIES | Iran West Asia |
Impact on India
Foreign Policy & Neighbourhood
External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar spent the week holding consultations across Qatar, Bahrain, Kuwait, and Oman. In Doha, he held talks with Qatari Prime Minister Sheikh Mohammed bin Abdulrahman Al Thani, commending Qatar’s central role in trying to sustain backchannel US-Iran negotiations. The primary goal of Jaishankar’s presence in the Gulf is coordinating security guarantees for Indian expatriates in the region and ensuring that Indian-crewed commercial vessels are not caught in the crossfire of the newly resumed naval hostilities.
Economy
Image 1: Indian rupee against the US dollar. (Source: Image created by Google Finance)
- The rupee settled at 95.38 against the US dollar on July 9. The fresh strikes in the region have led Brent crude to swing between USD 71 and USD 80.50 a barrel during the week.
Key Actors
Iran
Public funeral ceremonies for assassinated Iranian Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei began July 4 at Tehran’s Grand Mosalla, with Iran’s Health Ministry estimating roughly 15 million participants. Khamenei’s body was subsequently flown to Najaf, Iraq, with processions in Najaf and Karbala, before being laid to rest in the early hours (local time) of July 10 at the Imam Reza shrine in Mashhad. Successor Mojtaba Khamenei has made no public appearance.
Iranian forces struck three commercial tankers transiting the Strait of Hormuz between July 6–7 – Qatar-flagged LNG carrier Al Rekayyat, Saudi VLCC Wedyan, and a Sinokor-linked vessel.
Iran launched attack drones at a Patriot system in Kuwait, an early-warning site in Qatar, and fuel tanks in Bahrain, while Jordan intercepted eight Iranian missiles fired at a US-linked base.
China
Throughout the week, there wasn’t a squeak from China on the issue of the West Asian war Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between the US and Iran, or on bringing stability to post-conflict energy and financial markets. The only re-emphasis was of rhetoric on how hostilities are not the ideal way forward for the warring parties, in the aftermath of the strikes of July 8.
Pakistan
Pakistan’s Foreign Office urged both sides on July 8 to “exercise restraint” and uphold the Islamabad MoU. Iranian Foreign Minister separately told Pakistan Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir that US non-adherence to the MoU reflected “Washington’s warmongering policies.”
United States:
US President Donald Trump stated that the MoU with Iran was over. However, technical talks are reportedly underway between the US and Iran amid threats of the war’s revival. The developments overall signal the fragility of the MoU and deep mistrust between both sides.
Global Systems
Energy / Supply Chains
Commercial tankers carrying energy supplies were hit as they tried to cross the Strait after renewed escalation in the conflict. Consequently, tanker traffic through the strait slowed down. On July 8, Brent crude prices spiked to USD 80 before rapidly retreating to hover around USD 75. While the current price volatility remains relatively modest, the resumption of strikes signals further uncertainty for global oil markets.
Brent Crude Price (6–10 July)
Source: CNBCStrait of Hormuz
The week revealed how fragile the ceasefire was. Oil flows surpassed 10 million barrels per day, and oil prices returned to normal, but Iran reasserted its power by attacking three ships, prompting more US strikes, the revocation of its oil licence, and a “severe” threat rating.
The unresolved core is still governance and tolls. Hormuz continues to be a tool of coercion rather than a stable waterway; normalisation occurs but is always one event away from reversal.
This bulletin is prepared by the Takshashila West Asia Desk. For queries, contact research@takshashila.org.in.