New Realities Take Shape in Both War and West Asia

Assessments of Trends and Takeaways from Takshashila’s Daily Tracker

Authors

It is officially Day 30 of the US-Israel War on Iran. Per the data gathered in Takshashila’s Daily Tracker on the developments in the War between February 28, 2026, and the present, five important trends and takeaways emerge:

First, Iran opened with 182 ballistic missiles on Day 1. By Day 30, daily launches had dropped to ~10 ballistic missiles and ~15 drones. The combined/ allied forces claim to have destroyed 60%+ of Iran’s 410–440 launchers and struck over 10,000 sites. Yet Iran still fires 6+ barrages a day at Israel, using cluster munitions in 70% of launches to bypass a 92% interception rate. Five conventional warheads and dozens of cluster munition dispersals, so far, have still reached populated Israeli areas, killing ~16 and injuring ~4,700+.

Second, Gulf Arab countries are absorbing an unprecedented air defence burden. The UAE alone has faced 327+ ballistic missiles, 15+ cruise missiles, and 1,699+ drones. Bahrain’s BAPCO refinery declared force majeure. AWS Bahrain has been disrupted twice. Kuwait’s power grid is deteriorating from shrapnel from intercepted missiles. Saudi refineries have been hit repeatedly. Bystander economies like UAE and Saudi are most likely scrambling to acquire Israeli air defence systems (like Barak MX or SPYDER), or even seeking airlift of THAAD replacement systems.

Third, Israel has systematically managed to decapitate Iran’s Supreme Leader (Khamenei), Intelligence Minister (Khatib), security chief (Larijani), IRGC Navy Commander (Tangsiri), IRGC Spokesperson (Naeini), Basij militia Intelligence Chief (Ahmadi), Basij Commander (Soleimani), and his deputy. Simultaneously, it caused some damage to Iranian nuclear sites like Natanz, Bushehr and Taleghan 2, missile factories like the Kuh-E-Barjamali SRBM assembly facility, and airbases like Mashhad. It is an air campaign that has combined leadership targeting with infrastructural destruction, at scale and with speed.

Fourth, Iran’s parliament speaker said the Strait of Hormuz “won’t return to pre-war status.” FM Araghchi declared it “closed only to enemies.” The 21 UKMTO-confirmed maritime incidents and 100+ destroyed Iranian ships have not changed the reality that the Strait has become a permanent bargaining chip. Hence, while Iran’s Parliament is considering transit fees, daily West Asian oil exports have fallen by ~60%+, Australia and Singapore have signed emergency energy deals, and countries worldwide, including India, are scrambling for supply.

Finally, another inevitable reality is the formation of a new order in West Asia, as evidenced by various actors attempting to play their part in diplomacy or conflict. Pakistan is mediating between the US and Iran, delivering Washington’s 15-point peace plan – while also offering military support to Saudi and even UAE. A quadrilateral of Pakistan, Turkey, Egypt, and Saudi Arabia met in Islamabad today to enable “de-escalation.” China’s “Special Envoy for Mediation” conducted shuttle diplomacy across the region, with FM Wang Yi calling eight+ foreign ministers. The US set April 9 as a target end date, but the IRGC is speculating that Washington is setting up ground invasion manoeuvres.

Is it likely that endeavour ends in 10-12 days from today? That is best left to speculation. Till then, for more on these developments, one can refer to Takshashila’s daily tracker on developments in the US-Israel war on Iran here.