General
The US CENTCOM’s Operation Epic Fury against Iran complemented by IDF’s Operation Roaring Lion has now entered the third week with the fog of war and uncertainties increasing by the day. What was meant to be a short and swift offensive targeted at regime change and smooth take over by a populist has now turned out to be a war of attrition with zero diplomatic off-ramps. On one hand, allies of the US have displayed strategic ambiguity in terms of military support while the so called axis of Resistance led by Iran sees this as an opportunity to inflict heavy economic cost and military embarrassment to the US and Israel other than of course survival of the regime and Persian existence/ identity.
Background
Mid Feb 26, BBC Verify confirmed the USS Gerald R Ford, a carrier strike group was on its way to the middle east after passing the strait of Gibraltar, post the supposedly failed negotiations on Iran’s nuclear enrichment, its ballistic missile program as also its sponsorship of terrorism. This was a follow up of the 12 day Operation Midnight Hammer which had effectively destroyed Iran’s nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz and Isfahan.
Analysis of the Events
While Operation Midnight Hammer achieved its stated objectives, there was diplomatic breakdown despite mediation attempts by Oman prompting European Nations in late August 25 to trigger reinstating UN sanctions on Iran for the first time in a decade. This followed the domestic unrest in Iran, failed nuclear talks in Geneva and Military Build up by the US culminating in Operation Epic Fury.
On analysis of these events since June 2025 coupled with the US success in Venezuela, MAGA traction and personality traits of President Donald Trump, it is possible that the US Department of War planned a short and swift offensive using aerial and sea platforms to degrade the Iranian Military (including its missile and AD infrastructure) and simultaneously induce regime change by eliminating the Supreme Leader. They may have hoped the Venezuelan model would kick in thereafter. If this be, it then has been a dangerous plan to have been initiated based on ‘ Flawed Strategic Assumptions’. It is said that the first casualty in war is the ‘Plan’ and with the kind of operational fallout we witness, it makes one presume that Iranian Defensive Response Mechanism was not fully comprehended and factored.
The strait of Hormuz remains closed barring for a few ships and Iran remains defiant. USS Tripoli with approx 2500 marines onboard is on its way to the middle east. There has been another targeted killing by the IDF of Ali Larijani, the secretary of the Supreme National Security Council prompting the IRGC to vow definite revenge.
The IDF and US Forces have carried out extensive counterstrikes to Iran’s stated but unanticipated response where it has targeted US assets and interests in the entire Gulf region. There have been calls for ceasefire which both the parties have chosen to ignore. While Iran is testing US war stamina, the US on the other hand may be looking at a ground offensive with the arrival of marines. Of course, opening the Strait of Hormuz becomes its primary objective.
While a ground offensive possibly on any Island territory/ies seems doable considering the overwhelming air superiority and asymmetry in military capabilities, one cannot discount the advantage of terrain and the formidable mosaic defence capabilities of Iran. Logistics and sustenance issues will also dictate the war stamina of the US coupled with congressional approval for ground offensive. The present US military action may become another of the forever wars unless concessions are accepted from both sides.