Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
How India and China can Work Together on a Geoengineering Governance Framework
By Arjun Gargeyas
India and China have the possibility of driving forward the conversation on continuing credible research in the field of geoengineering. Both countries have been torchbearers for the rest of the developing world at climate conferences and both can work together to formulate a well-rounded governance framework regulating the research and technology in the field. While ethical considerations should be taken into account, the two countries can develop a holistic model (that also looks at potential negative consequences of geoengineering techniques) to have solar radiation management as a probable climate policy option. National agencies can be set up for funding solar geo-tech research and also keep tabs on the experiments being conducted.
The Cascading Effects of Chip Starvation to Russia
By Aditya Pareek and Arjun Gargeyas
The US and its allies like Japan, South Korea, Taiwan and the Netherlands enjoy an elevated status in the global high-tech sphere. Much of the world’s production capacity and intellectual property (IP) related to micro-electronic and semiconductors chips are concentrated in the territory of the US and its allies. This strategic high-tech dominance ensures that the US can inflict major costs on adversarial countries like Russia and China and their economies. It is clear that the recently imposed sanctions and export controls on Russia and the resultant chip starvation will have increasingly detrimental effects on the Russian economy. With no hope to import chips legally, Moscow may turn to gray imports and smuggling.
A Blueprint for India to Insulate Itself from Future Tech Sanctions
By Arjun Gargeyas
One interesting aspect of the conflict has been the use of tech sanctions by the West, its allies and even private technology companies to deny Russia access to critical technology components needed for the running its critical sectors, like space and telecommunications. This is the first time that specific technology sanctions have been levied against a single country. The impact of these sanctions can be absolutely devastating to the government and its strategic sectors, and even create inaccessibility to domestic consumers.
Despite US Restrictions, it Took China Only 15 Years to Lead the Quantum Computing Race
By Arjun Gargeyas
2008. The world-renowned quantum scientist Pan Jianwei returned to China and was allocated a lab at the University of Science and Technology of China (USTC) to kickstart China’s quantum programme. Fast forward a decade and China is the leading power in quantum communications and making consistent leaps in other areas of quantum technology. While major technology giants have thrown their hats into the ring with their own in-house quantum computer programmes, states and their governments around the world are not far behind each having launched its own quantum initiative. The bulk of the funding of government policies related to quantum technologies is set aside for the development of state-of-the-art quantum computers.
India, Japan, Australia Need Tech Alliance to Counter China and Huawei’s Monopoly
By Arjun Gargeyas
All three countries are part of the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue or Quad along with the US, in which technology cooperation has been a key factor in bringing together the States. When discussing the Indo-Pacific, the role of China remains key to these countries formulating their responses and multilateral policies. It is evident that China has now reached the stage of expanding its technological sphere of influence in the region. The private sector, coupled with continuous state support, has managed to gain a foothold in some key technology areas that have served Beijing’s diplomatic ambitions well.
As China Threat Looms Over Taiwan, This Is How India Can Keep Global Chip Industry Afloat
By Arjun Gargeyas
As the Russia-Ukraine crisis continues, questions have been raised about how this might affect China’s decision-making process on Taiwan. The island nation remains under threat from potential Chinese aggression and its lucrative semiconductor industry hangs in the balance. India, as a growing semiconductor power, must look at Taiwan closely on technology cooperation in the domain and should not shy away from building a semiconductor alliance with the country. It is imperative that Taiwan’s semiconductor industry be protected in case of external aggression by building redundancy and resiliency through partnerships with key states like India.
The Effect Of Tech Sanctions On The Russian Economy
By Arjun Gargeyas
During the course of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine crisis, the West (mainly the United States and its NATO allies) have been looking at deterrence mechanisms to curtail Russia's continuous military offensives. The current actions taken against Russia have mainly been in the form of targeting the Russian economy through sanctions and embargoes specifically targeting sectors that Russia relies on for export revenues. The recent announcement by President Joe Biden on banning Russian oil, gas, and energy imports to the US is just one of the decisions that are hitting the core of the economy. But, the US, has also specifically introduced high-tech sanctions mainly depriving Russia the access to critical technologies (like semiconductors, quantum, artificial intelligence, and big data) and their applications.
How Emerging Technologies Are Driving China’s Readiness For Modern Warfare
By Megha Pardhi and Arjun Gargeyas
In this year’s annual session of the National People’s Congress, Premier Li Keqiang presented a finance report with an estimated 1.45 trillion yuan (US$230 billion) set aside for defence spending in 2022. Although that figure is an increase on last year, it is still less than the US military budget, which is expected to top US$770 billion. This translates into a significant gap in US and Chinese military power. As a result, China’s military modernisation and efforts to leverage technology in warfare have so far been directed to reduce this gap. Thus, Beijing is working to incorporate modern technology into the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). With the development of space and electronic warfare capabilities over the past two decades, China’s armed forces have started to embrace critical and emerging technologies.
Ukraine War Won’t Affect Global Semiconductor Supply, But Will Hit Russia Hard
By Arjun Gargeyas and Aditya Pareek
With the world still reeling from a global chip shortage, the recent crisis in Ukraine sends a bleak message to the already floundering industry. The semiconductor chip supply is yet to recover from the shock dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic. This, coupled with an impending war between two states that are contributors to the global supply chain, is detrimental to the industry’s recovery. The consumer electronics and automotive markets have been massively hit by this chip shortage. Apple, a major manufacturer of mobile phones and laptops, has pushed the release of their new line of MacBook and announced that the number of iPhone models being manufactured would be reduced due to the chip shortage. The automotive sector is still underperforming and major players have yet to resume operations at pre-pandemic levels. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia might have some implications on the global chip supply along with consequences for the Russian semiconductor industry itself.
With Eye on China, India Joins Race To Weaponise Quantum Tech in Future Military Conflicts
By Arjun Gargeyas
On February 23, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) made an announcement that went a bit under the radar but can have huge ramifications in the future for developing military technologies. The official statement given by the DRDO stated that a joint team of DRDO and IIT-Delhi successfully demonstrated a Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) link for the very first time in the country between the cities of Prayagraj and Vindhyachal in the state of Uttar Pradesh. An interesting thing to note is that these cities are located at a distance of 100 kilometres from each other. This marks the beginning of the Indian military complex utilising an emerging technology like quantum to enhance domestic defensive capabilities.
US Indo-Pacific Strategy geared for Great Power Competition
By Aditya Pareek and Arjun Gargeyas
The US recently came out with the latest iteration of its Indo-Pacific Strategy. The document has a clear imprint of the ongoing great-power competition across political, ideological and military-technical domains between US and its allies on one side and China and Russia on the other. The document has a realist tone, admitting that the US seeks “a balance of influence in the world that is maximally favorable” to it. It is no coincidence that Russia and China take issue with the US rhetoric on a “rules-based order” that would only be advantageous to US and countries closely aligned to it.
Understanding China’s High Tech Espionage Efforts To Modernise The Military
By Arjun Gargeyas
The Department of Defense (DoD) under the United States government recently released its yearly report on the military and security developments in China. This report, acronymised as the DoD report, gives a comprehensive understanding of the progress made by the Chinese armed forces over the year along with elucidating the future plans of the Chinese military. One of the interesting aspects of last year’s DoD report was the focus on China’s industrial espionage efforts on certain advanced technologies which the government thinks holds the key to enhancing the quality of their military systems.
India’s Solar And Renewable Energy Push Signals Challenge To Chinese Dominance
By Arjun Gargeyas
As finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman read out her Budget speech in Parliament on 1 February, the stock prices of domestic solar manufacturers such as Adani Solar, Tata Power and Suzlon rose sharply in response to government’s big push to green energy. With India setting specific goals for the reduction of carbon emissions as seen from the signalling at the COP-26 summit, the competition for dominating the global renewable energy markets is something to watch out for.
The Roadmap To India’s $300 Billion Electronics Manufacturing Dream
By Arjun Gargeyas
On January 24, the Minister for Electronics and Information Technology, Ashwini Vaishnaw released the vision document on the opportunities and growth of domestic electronics manufacturing. The report was a collaboration with the Indian Cellular and Electronics Association (ICEA) for developing a roadmap to increase and improve the share of India’s electronics exports in the next five years. While the first volume, titled “Increasing India’s Electronics Exports and Share in GVCs”, was released in November 2021, the second volume of the vision document came out this month.
Why India-Australia Technology Cooperation is a Welcome Development
By Arjun Gargeyas
Collaboration on critical and emerging technologies has been high on the agenda for the Australian and Indian governments in recent months. On 17 November 2021, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison gave a virtual inaugural address at the Bengaluru Technology Summit. Morrison’s speech was accompanied by an announcement expressing Australia’s commitment to establish a Centre of Excellence for Critical and Emerging Technology Policy in India. The very next day, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a keynote address at the Australian Strategic Policy Institute’s Sydney Dialogue, in which he emphasised the importance of technology to the two countries’ comprehensive strategic partnership, which was established in 2020.
Industrial Policies Alone Cannot Give Desired Results in Tech Sector
By Arjun Gargeyas
The India Cellular and Electronics Industry (ICEA) recently released a report detailing the effects of import tariffs on the domestic electronics industry. Currently, India’s import tariff rate for electronic and technology goods is much more than those of competing countries like China and Vietnam. This has been on the back of the recently announced 76,000 crore package to build the Indian semiconductor industry. But high import tariffs, trade restrictions, and taxation meant as protectionist measures decline the competitiveness of Indian goods in the global market. More importantly, it completely negates the effect of industrial policy measures which are meant to be supportive and business-friendly like the production linked incentive (PLI) scheme.
What’s Behind China’s New National Standardization Outline Document?
By Arjun Gargeyas and Megha Pardhi
China’s “Standards 2035” project gained headlines in April 2020 at the height of the COVID-19 pandemic. October 2021 saw the release of the National Standardization Development (NSD) outline document as the first official document detailing China’s ambitions in the coming decade in the realm of technical standardization processes. The NSD visualizes a standardized system that promotes high-tech innovation and “opening up” of the technology sector, while also leading to high-quality development. The core points covered in the document provide a glimpse into the Chinese state’s strategic approach toward technical standards.
A Four-Point Action Plan for Quantum Technologies
By Arjun Gargeyas
In the 2020 Budget speech, finance minister Nirmala Sitharaman announced the National Mission for Quantum Technologies and Applications (NM-QTA) with a total outlay of ₹8000 crore over five years for strengthening the quantum industry in the country. A Lok Sabha question posed in July 2021 enquired about the status and progress of the mission. The reply that was provided by the minister of state for science and technology, Jitendra Singh, mentioned that the mission had not even received approval yet. Singh also announced that no funds were allocated, disbursed or utilised under NM-QTA during the financial year 2020-21.
Has China achieved its leap to ‘Quantum Supremacy’?
By Arjun Gargeyas
The quantum race is heating up. Last month, the US and Australia signed an official agreement on quantum technology and information science, emphasising the exchange of skills and development in the field for the protection of intellectual property as well as building safe and secure research environments.
Lessons for India From China’s Technical Standardisation Strategy
By Arjun Gargeyas
China recently released the National Standardisation Development (NSD) Outline, which serves as the first major document in the public domain on the standardisation strategy of the state in the coming years. This serves as a potential road map for the Chinese government and provides a glimpse into its intentions of utilising technical standards as an economic and strategic tool to further advance its interests.The standardisation strategy envisioned by the Chinese government can also serve as a model for India to increase its presence in the international technical standards domain. China’s pursuit offers India an opportunity to emulate its neighbour in simultaneously strengthening its domestic standardisation schemes while improving its leverage in international standards developing organisations. The NSD outline document provides India with a few pointers on the path it can take to influence technical standards-setting at the international level.