Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
On Semiconductors, India Needs to Reboot Trade Policies, Ecosystem to Build a TSMC
By Arjun Gargeyas and Pranay Kotasthane
Talks have accelerated between India and Taiwan to build a state-of-the-art semiconductor manufacturing unit in the country. Reports have indicated that officials from both sides have met regularly to discuss the possible outcomes of Taiwan investing in a fabrication facility in India. The Taiwanese government and its major foundries, which hold the lion’s share of the world’s semiconductor manufacturing supply, have reportedly agreed to invest $7.5 billion in India to set up a long-pending fab in the country.
I could serve the Indian Army thanks to IAF ‘bounce’ party 50 years ago
The 1971 War gifted the 49th Regular Course at the Indian Military Academy, Dehradun, three additional months of commissioned service. Our commissioning was advanced to 31 March 1972, instead of June that year, to make up for the war causalities. The losses had bequeathed the benefit of early commissioning to about 350 of us. Later, it became a topic of debate among our coursemates whether the benefit we enjoyed was at a cost to the Army. Some thought that the three months of training lost had often shown up in the overall performance of the batch.
While such debates will continue life long, here is a personal story that wouldn’t have been the same, had it not been for the Indian Air Force (IAF). As the IAF celebrates its raising on 8 October, I say “cheers” to them.
Read the full article in ThePrint
How China manufactured nationalism in triumph over Huawei CFO Meng Wanzhou’s return
"If faith has colour, it must be China Red," said 49-year-old Meng Wenzhou, after returning to China after almost three years. Triumph in her speech and nationalism in the air around her couldn't have been more evident.Meng Wanzhou, Chief Finance Officer (CFO) of Huawei, returned to China on 25 September after she was arrested in December 2018 in Canada following an extradition request from the US, on charges of with fraud and misleading HSBC over Huawei’s business dealings in Iran in violations of American sanctions on Iran. She pleaded “not guilty” to charges but accepted that some information in her presentation to HSBC was false. She returned after the United States (US) agreed to drop the extradition request. The nationalist rhetoric of China's triumph in securing Meng's release was overflowing everywhere from state media to social media. Social media was abuzz with news of Meng coming back to the "motherland" to the extent that on 25th Sept, 26 of the top 30 hot searches on Weibo were related to Meng.While netizens admired China’s diplomatic efforts for securing her release, others were swooning over the very public display of affection by Meng's husband, Liu Xiaozong. The nationalistic fervour among netizens is perhaps best exemplified by a cartoon by Chinese cartoonist Wu Heqiling. It depicts a woman dressed in yellow being rescued from a huge shark-like creature, with its skin coloured as the US flag, by officers in a red helicopter. The cartoon went viral in China and even the Embassy of People's Republic of China in Sri Lanka shared it on Twitter. State media in China left no stone unturned in covering Meng's return. The hours-ling live broadcast of her landing at Bao’an airport in Shenzhen also featured a live flight tracker. Over 400 million people reportedly watched the live broadcast.The celebration is part of State media’s carefully manufactured nationalistic narrative.Read full article published by Firstpost.
COVID-19 outbreak underlines need for India to develop its own epidemic intelligence service
Australia may have opened the door for India. Like Rafale, a submarine deal is critical
Fear, it seems, is the reigning global emotion and is reflected in innumerable speeches at the seventy-sixth United Nations General Assembly session. The dangers posed to humanity by climate change, extremism, and human and women’s rights violations were seated in the front row of the hall of fear. Cooperation was a popular antidote. The problem is that global geopolitics is currently afflicted by a surge in confrontations, especially between the United States and China — the big powers.
Power balancing is the name of the game and both are in search of partners. Middle powers in Eurasia and the Indo-Pacific cannot possibly escape the shadows cast by the global and regional struggle for domination. India’s geographic endowments make it a prisoner of forces at play in both geographies. The Eurasian geopolitical struggle is for India, a primarily continental one, while the Indo-Pacific struggle is maritime. Striking a balance between the two is one of the central challenges of India’s national security strategy.
India should invest in ever more sophisticated cyber armaments
A century ago, the declaration of war was a formal exercise. Diplomats in frock coats would turn up at chancellories to first serve ultimatums and subsequently to hand-deliver notices of war. Some would even insist on reading them out aloud for the benefit of bemused recipients, who would then make arrangements for the safe departure of the enemy’s embassy. These age-old courtesies were abridged by the time of World War II and terse telegrams replaced frock coats. The advent of the Cold War, nuclear weapons and proxy wars of the 20th century put an end to the custom of formal war declarations. In recent times, an incoming missile or fighter aircraft announces war. Even so, we are used to wars that have a starting point and an end date.Not anymore. Information warfare is an ongoing affair. Cyber warfare, its technical aspect, has already been militarized. It is global and continues regardless of whether or not states are in armed conflict. We cannot pinpoint the date, month or even the year it started. And, unfortunately, we also cannot say when it will end, if ever. States have no choice but to wage it. Gloomy as this sounds, at least so far the pursuit of politics through these other means has avoided large scale bloodshed that characterized armed conflicts of the Industrial Age.Read the full article in The Mint
In Quad’s Semiconductor Gambit against China, India Stands to Gain
By Pranay Kotasthane
Semiconductors gave become a domain of confrontation between the US and China. And then, the demand shock of COVID-19 led to a severe shortage of chips in automobiles, medical devices, and other sectors. And finally, fears of a Chinese takeover of Taiwan—which alone accounts for nearly 73 per cent of the world’s global contract chip manufacturing—have made countries scramble for alternatives. And so, from being at the margins of the technology policy agenda of several countries, semiconductors have become a primary focus area. Little wonder then that the first in-person Quad Summit meeting on September 24 had semiconductors on its agenda.
The Murky Waters of Kerala’s Knowledge Economy Mission
The Union, States, and other stakeholders can reap benefits from broad-based employment platforms like the Kerala Knowledge Economy Mission. But for such technological innovations to succeed, they require more nuance, engagement, and diversity at the design stage to cater to the needs of all of Kerala’s unemployed.
As Quad focuses on Tech, the Debate on Standard Setting
By Arjun Gargeyas
Technology will be at the forefront of the first in-person Quad summit in the United States (US). The control of critical technologies and their supply chains remain essential for all States to project their geopolitical influence. However, having a grip on the governance mechanism of these critical technologies in the form of technical standards can be a gamechanger in the geostrategic field.A technical standard serves as a means for governance in the realm of a wide range of technologies. With several emerging fields such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), blockchain, and 5G, there is a need to establish a common direction of functioning for all States and private companies undertaking research and development in the field of technology. While this remains the idea behind the setting up of technical standards, recent developments have broadened the scope of the necessity of these standards.
India's Vaccine Diplomacy should take a Backseat Now
By Arjun Gargeyas
As a major vaccine manufacturer, India is expected to lend its hand to protect global health by exporting vaccines to other nations which are yet to administer vaccination doses to the majority of its population. Sources in the Indian government have mentioned India's plans to restart the export of vaccines to African nations in the coming weeks. There have also been reports that the Prime Minister's visit with the United States President later this month will discuss the possibility of India's role in vaccine exports. Biden is expected to convince Modi to make India release a number of doses as humanitarian aid to other countries to combat the spread of the virus and its deadly variants.But is it time to go back to vaccine diplomacy or should India take time to assess the situation better and make a rational decision? There are reasons to suggest that India, despite being a benevolent state, should adopt a wait and watch approach when dealing with vaccine exports from the country.
Swooping down on algorithms
China has pursued aggressive measures on the entire gamut of its tech sector in the past few months, ranging from strong-arming IPOs to limiting gaming hours for children. A host of legislative instruments are in the process of adoption. This includes the Personal Information Protection Law, the Cybersecurity Law, and the draft Internet Information Service Algorithmic Recommendation Management Provisions.Read the full article in The Hindu
AUKUS a game of musical chairs in Indo-Pacific
Read the Full Text on Asia Times
The exclusion of France, India and Japan indicates that at the drop of a hat those in the fold may be oustedUS should take the right approach with IndiaPreviously, the role now to be assigned to AUKUS was envisaged to be undertaken in part by the Quad. However, several factors including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s broader focus than just the military dimension perhaps made it unsuitable for the purpose. Some commentators have already noticed the absence of other important countries in the US-led anti-China bulwark – India and Japan – in this new AUKUS grouping.Perhaps to prevent any fissures in its relationships with those countries and the Quad, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was quick to make presumably reassuring phone calls to the leaders of both India and Japan. The Australian high commissioner in India, Barry O’Farrell, also spoke of India being in the loop before the AUKUS announcement was made public. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato also conveyed a positive reaction to the announcement.
However, the resultant chaos around the exclusion of France, India and Japan is reminiscent of a game of geopolitical musical chairs – where at the drop of a hat rebalancing may occur and those in the fold may be ousted. This will inevitably bring chaos and uncertainty to the balance of power in the region.India for its part has developed closer and closer ties to the US in the domain of strategic and defense cooperation, including the signing of such agreements as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement), COMCASA (the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA).These agreements are significant to Indian strategic and military capabilities by virtue of providing unprecedented access to key communications technology and data streams that can vastly improve the accuracy of India’s missile arsenal. However, they are not likely to give India autonomous capabilities to benefit from or use as New Delhi wishes. This is in direct contrast to Russia’s willingness to lease sensitive military hardware like its advanced nuclear-propelled submarines of the Akula class.Russia has also aided the development of India’s indigenous nuclear-submarine program, particularly its miniature onboard nuclear power plants. Washington’s broader strategic aim of dissuading India away from Russia has been characteristic of the “stick” approach, as evident from it mulling the imposition of sanctions over India’s S-400 purchase under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).Washington would find much more success in this endeavor were it instead to follow a “carrots” approach by offering India one of its Seawolf-class advanced fast attack nuclear submarines on the same 10-year lease terms as the Russian Akulas. This scenario has the potential to draw India much closer to the US and might serve as a watershed move that could weaken Russo-Indian defense ties further.
Read the Full Text on Asia Times
Gen Rawat’s ‘clash of civilisation’ row shows military should be seen but not heard in press
On September 15, the Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat posed a question before a gathering of Delhi’s strategic community. He asked them, rhetorically, whether China’s growing engagement with Iran, Turkey, and Afghanistan would lead to the rebooting of the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ theory with the Chinese and Islamic civilisations joining against the Western world? The query raised by the CDS was part of an intellectual discourse and not, by any standards, a policy statement. But the media reported it as such and ended up seeding a controversy during a sensitive phase in China-India relations.
A day later, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar chose to clarify the doubt before his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Dushanbe: “India had never subscribed to any clash of civilisations theory”. But the CDS, who is no stranger to controversies, again found himself at the receiving end. The episode raises questions about civil-military-media relations that need scrutiny.
China’s ‘Standards 2035’ Project Could Result in a Technological Cold War
By Arjun Gargeyas
The eventual decline of the West’s dominance in the standards domain has offered an opportunity for China to play a bigger role in finalizing and setting technology standards. The Chinese state has gradually increased its technical capabilities and has worked toward strengthening the technology sector in the country during the last two decades. The domestic private technology sector of China, supported by the state, has gained immense heft on the international stage. Now, it looks to play an active role in advocating for global technical standards and a worldwide governance mechanism for governing emerging technologies. In this way, China hopes to boost domestic economic growth and project geopolitical influence.
How India could get involved in the AUKUS alliance
By Arjun Gargeyas
The newly announced alliance appears to be intended a base for all three states to indulge in defense and technology cooperation and to collaborate on governing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and cyberspace.While India’s involvement in the Quad is needed, there are also pragmatic reasons for India to work with the AUKUS states to achieve their objectives. Modi’s first face-to-face meeting with Biden could help make India’s case for getting involved with AUKUS.Read the full article on Asia Times
Understanding China’s Draft Algorithm Regulations
Data and algorithms are the fundamental blocks of cyberspace, but while data practices are increasingly being regulated around the world algorithm regulation is relatively untouched. The EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), for example, remains the groundbreaking model for data protection regulations in most parts of the world. However, there is a void in the regulation of algorithms.In August, China issued the Draft Internet Information Service Algorithmic Recommendation Management Provisions, with an interest in standard setting in this space. Read the full op-ed on The Diplomat. Views are personal and do not represent Takshashila's policy recommendations.
2021 isn’t Pakistan’s 1971
US secretary of state Antony Blinken’s statement on Pakistan’s “double dealing” in Afghanistan and the consequent need to “review” ties is far from the only trouble Islamabad faces. Never mind rhetoric on the Taliban victory being Islamabad’s own “1971 moment”. Or the recent visit of the ISI chief to Kabul. Kabul’s new regime will likely create a set of political, security and diplomatic challenges for Islamabad.While Pakistan would rely on the Haqqani Network to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani is just one of the players on the chessboard of Afghan politics. It is likely that a nationalist section led by Mullah Baradar, who was in line to become the head of Taliban after Mullah Omar, would resist ISI domination in the future as it had during the insurgency phase.Read the full article in The Times of India
Afghanistan and Pakistan are in a strategic embrace that cannot have a happy ending
A theocratic oligarchy consisting mostly of United Nations-designated terrorists is going to hold the reins of power in Afghanistan. To oversee the formation of an ‘interim’ government, Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lt Gen. Faiz Hameed had flown to Kabul. The interim government had even been announced but the sudden cancellation of the swearing-in shows there are tussles in the upper echelons of the Taliban, which Pakistan must handle with care. Lack of experience in governance is another issue that Pakistan is trying to solve, with reports indicating that guidance will be provided by ISI-nominated Pakistani bureaucrats, technocrats, professional military, and police personnel. For sure, the Punjabi Musalman from Pakistan will, sooner rather than later, rub the wrong side of the Afghan Pathan.Pakistan and Afghanistan are now politically and strategically inseparable. They are both backed by China, which has announced a $31 million financial assistance that can, at best, provide limited relief, unless followed by continuous and larger benevolence. The international institutions that are mostly under the United States’ control are unlikely to be of help, except for providing humanitarian relief through the UN and other agencies.Read the full article in ThePrint
Organic farming should not be an article of faith
The Taliban Government and What it Means for India
Taliban has again done what it does best: make vague promises, extract concessions, and return to their original plan. Meanwhile, the interlocutors continue to extract more promises from the Taliban — hoping that the group has changed — only to return disappointed. This cycle repeats. Afghans suffer.The newly announced Taliban government is a good illustration of this now-familiar playbook. Former President Hamid Karzai and the Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah's presence in Qatar gave an impression that an interim government with broader representation is in the works. The Taliban made the right noises all through the Doha agreement negotiations about creating an inclusive government. But when the government was finally announced, it was anything but inclusive.Read the full article on TOI+