The Murky Waters of Kerala’s Knowledge Economy Mission

The Union, States, and other stakeholders can reap benefits from broad-based employment platforms like the Kerala Knowledge Economy Mission. But for such technological innovations to succeed, they require more nuance, engagement, and diversity at the design stage to cater to the needs of all of Kerala’s unemployed.

Read the article in The Bastion

As Quad focuses on Tech, the Debate on Standard Setting

Technology will be at the forefront of the first in-person Quad summit in the United States (US). The control of critical technologies and their supply chains remain essential for all States to project their geopolitical influence. However, having a grip on the governance mechanism of these critical technologies in the form of technical standards can be a gamechanger in the geostrategic field.A technical standard serves as a means for governance in the realm of a wide range of technologies. With several emerging fields such as Artificial Intelligence (AI), blockchain, and 5G, there is a need to establish a common direction of functioning for all States and private companies undertaking research and development in the field of technology. While this remains the idea behind the setting up of technical standards, recent developments have broadened the scope of the necessity of these standards.

India's Vaccine Diplomacy should take a Backseat Now

As a major vaccine manufacturer, India is expected to lend its hand to protect global health by exporting vaccines to other nations which are yet to administer vaccination doses to the majority of its population. Sources in the Indian government have mentioned India's plans to restart the export of vaccines to African nations in the coming weeks. There have also been reports that the Prime Minister's visit with the United States President later this month will discuss the possibility of India's role in vaccine exports. Biden is expected to convince Modi to make India release a number of doses as humanitarian aid to other countries to combat the spread of the virus and its deadly variants.But is it time to go back to vaccine diplomacy or should India take time to assess the situation better and make a rational decision? There are reasons to suggest that India, despite being a benevolent state, should adopt a wait and watch approach when dealing with vaccine exports from the country.

Swooping down on algorithms

China has pursued aggressive measures on the entire gamut of its tech sector in the past few months, ranging from strong-arming IPOs to limiting gaming hours for children. A host of legislative instruments are in the process of adoption. This includes the Personal Information Protection Law, the Cybersecurity Law, and the draft Internet Information Service Algorithmic Recommendation Management Provisions.Read the full article in The Hindu

AUKUS a game of musical chairs in Indo-Pacific

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The exclusion of France, India and Japan indicates that at the drop of a hat those in the fold may be oustedUS should take the right approach with IndiaPreviously, the role now to be assigned to AUKUS was envisaged to be undertaken in part by the Quad. However, several factors including the Quadrilateral Security Dialogue’s broader focus than just the military dimension perhaps made it unsuitable for the purpose. Some commentators have already noticed the absence of other important countries in the US-led anti-China bulwark – India and Japan – in this new AUKUS grouping.Perhaps to prevent any fissures in its relationships with those countries and the Quad, Australian Prime Minister Scott Morrison was quick to make presumably reassuring phone calls to the leaders of both India and Japan. The Australian high commissioner in India, Barry O’Farrell, also spoke of India being in the loop before the AUKUS announcement was made public. Japanese Chief Cabinet Secretary Katsunobu Kato also conveyed a positive reaction to the announcement.

However, the resultant chaos around the exclusion of France, India and Japan is reminiscent of a game of geopolitical musical chairs – where at the drop of a hat rebalancing may occur and those in the fold may be ousted. This will inevitably bring chaos and uncertainty to the balance of power in the region.India for its part has developed closer and closer ties to the US in the domain of strategic and defense cooperation, including the signing of such agreements as the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA), BECA (Basic Exchange and Cooperation Agreement), COMCASA (the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement) and the Communications Interoperability and Security Memorandum of Agreement (CISMOA).These agreements are significant to Indian strategic and military capabilities by virtue of providing unprecedented access to key communications technology and data streams that can vastly improve the accuracy of India’s missile arsenal. However, they are not likely to give India autonomous capabilities to benefit from or use as New Delhi wishes. This is in direct contrast to Russia’s willingness to lease sensitive military hardware like its advanced nuclear-propelled submarines of the Akula class.Russia has also aided the development of India’s indigenous nuclear-submarine program, particularly its miniature onboard nuclear power plants. Washington’s broader strategic aim of dissuading India away from Russia has been characteristic of the “stick” approach, as evident from it mulling the imposition of sanctions over India’s S-400 purchase under the Countering America’s Adversaries Through Sanctions Act (CAATSA).Washington would find much more success in this endeavor were it instead to follow a “carrots” approach by offering India one of its Seawolf-class advanced fast attack nuclear submarines on the same 10-year lease terms as the Russian Akulas. This scenario has the potential to draw India much closer to the US and might serve as a watershed move that could weaken Russo-Indian defense ties further.

Read the Full Text on Asia Times

Gen Rawat’s ‘clash of civilisation’ row shows military should be seen but not heard in press

On September 15, the Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat posed a question before a gathering of Delhi’s strategic community. He asked them, rhetorically, whether China’s growing engagement with Iran, Turkey, and Afghanistan would lead to the rebooting of the ‘Clash of Civilisations’ theory with the Chinese and Islamic civilisations joining against the Western world? The query raised by the CDS was part of an intellectual discourse and not, by any standards, a policy statement. But the media reported it as such and ended up seeding a controversy during a sensitive phase in China-India relations.

A day later, Foreign Minister S. Jaishankar chose to clarify the doubt before his Chinese counterpart Wang Yi during a meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation in Dushanbe: “India had never subscribed to any clash of civilisations theory”. But the CDS, who is no stranger to controversies, again found himself at the receiving end. The episode raises questions about civil-military-media relations that need scrutiny.

Read the full article in ThePrint

China’s ‘Standards 2035’ Project Could Result in a Technological Cold War

The eventual decline of the West’s dominance in the standards domain has offered an opportunity for China to play a bigger role in finalizing and setting technology standards. The Chinese state has gradually increased its technical capabilities and has worked toward strengthening the technology sector in the country during the last two decades. The domestic private technology sector of China, supported by the state, has gained immense heft on the international stage. Now, it looks to play an active role in advocating for global technical standards and a worldwide governance mechanism for governing emerging technologies. In this way, China hopes to boost domestic economic growth and project geopolitical influence.

How India could get involved in the AUKUS alliance

The newly announced alliance appears to be intended a base for all three states to indulge in defense and technology cooperation and to collaborate on governing emerging technologies such as artificial intelligence and cyberspace.While India’s involvement in the Quad is needed, there are also pragmatic reasons for India to work with the AUKUS states to achieve their objectives. Modi’s first face-to-face meeting with Biden could help make India’s case for getting involved with AUKUS.Read the full article on Asia Times

Understanding China’s Draft Algorithm Regulations

Data and algorithms are the fundamental blocks of cyberspace, but while data practices are increasingly being regulated around the world algorithm regulation is relatively untouched. The EU General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), for example, remains the groundbreaking model for data protection regulations in most parts of the world. However, there is a void in the regulation of algorithms.In August, China issued the Draft Internet Information Service Algorithmic Recommendation Management Provisions, with an interest in standard setting in this space. Read the full op-ed on The Diplomat. Views are personal and do not represent Takshashila's policy recommendations.

2021 isn’t Pakistan’s 1971

US secretary of state Antony Blinken’s statement on Pakistan’s “double dealing” in Afghanistan and the consequent need to “review” ties is far from the only trouble Islamabad faces. Never mind rhetoric on the Taliban victory being Islamabad’s own “1971 moment”. Or the recent visit of the ISI chief to Kabul. Kabul’s new regime will likely create a set of political, security and diplomatic challenges for Islamabad.While Pakistan would rely on the Haqqani Network to safeguard its interests in Afghanistan, Sirajuddin Haqqani is just one of the players on the chessboard of Afghan politics. It is likely that a nationalist section led by Mullah Baradar, who was in line to become the head of Taliban after Mullah Omar, would resist ISI domination in the future as it had during the insurgency phase.Read the full article in The Times of India

Afghanistan and Pakistan are in a strategic embrace that cannot have a happy ending

A theocratic oligarchy consisting mostly of United Nations-designated terrorists is going to hold the reins of power in Afghanistan. To oversee the formation of an ‘interim’ government, Pakistan Inter-Services Intelligence chief Lt Gen. Faiz Hameed had flown to Kabul. The interim government had even been announced but the sudden cancellation of the swearing-in shows there are tussles in the upper echelons of the Taliban, which Pakistan must handle with care. Lack of experience in governance is another issue that Pakistan is trying to solve, with reports indicating that guidance will be provided by ISI-nominated Pakistani bureaucrats, technocrats, professional military, and police personnel. For sure, the Punjabi Musalman from Pakistan will, sooner rather than later, rub the wrong side of the Afghan Pathan.Pakistan and Afghanistan are now politically and strategically inseparable. They are both backed by China, which has announced a $31 million financial assistance that can, at best, provide limited relief, unless followed by continuous and larger benevolence. The international institutions that are mostly under the United States’ control are unlikely to be of help, except for providing humanitarian relief through the UN and other agencies.Read the full article in ThePrint

Organic farming should not be an article of faith

Earlier this month, the Rajapaksa government imposed a state of emergency in Sri Lanka after its bungled response to a brewing foreign exchange crisis cascaded into food shortages. An army general has been put in charge of catching both hoarders of food and holders of foreign currency. Like a Greek tragedy, we know how things will unfold, but well-wishers of the Sri Lankan people are powerless to stop the avoidable suffering that lies ahead.

Running out of foreign exchange amid an economic downturn and with looming debt-servicing obligations, the Sri Lankan government imposed a slew of import controls earlier this year. Banning the import of automobiles, toilet fixtures, Venetian blinds, toothbrush handles and turmeric is one thing, but a complete ban on fertilizers is entirely another. Domestic production is critical for any food-importing country facing a foreign exchange crisis. In Sri Lanka’s case, it is even more important because it is a major exporter of tea. The fertilizer ban has left Sri Lanka both short of food and US dollars.Read the full article here.

The Taliban Government and What it Means for India

Taliban has again done what it does best: make vague promises, extract concessions, and return to their original plan. Meanwhile, the interlocutors continue to extract more promises from the Taliban — hoping that the group has changed — only to return disappointed. This cycle repeats. Afghans suffer.The newly announced Taliban government is a good illustration of this now-familiar playbook. Former President Hamid Karzai and the Head of the High Council for National Reconciliation Abdullah Abdullah's presence in Qatar gave an impression that an interim government with broader representation is in the works. The Taliban made the right noises all through the Doha agreement negotiations about creating an inclusive government. But when the government was finally announced, it was anything but inclusive.Read the full article on TOI+

Instead of Taliban talks, India must stand up for Afghan resistance despite Panjshir fall

Kabul fell to the Taliban on 15 August 2021. On 18 August, Ahmad Massoud, the son of Ahmed Shah Massoud, appealed to the West for help from Panjshir – “No matter what happens, my mujahideen fighters and I will defend Panjshir as the last bastion of Afghan freedom. Our morale is intact. We know from experience what awaits us. But we need is more weapons, more ammunition, and more supplies. America and its democratic allies do not just have to fight against terrorism in common with Afghans. We now have a long history made up of shared ideals and struggles. There is still much that you can do to aid the cause of freedom. You are our only remaining hope.”

The appeal has been met with silence from the officialdom of concerned countries. Counterterrorism in Afghanistan seems to be beggared. However, neither the Soviets nor the Taliban during its earlier stint has been able to control Panjshir. This time around, the challenge is greater but the resistance forces in Afghanistan rely on their grit, history and geography. Reports indicate that some elements of the Afghan Armed Forces including its Special Forces have joined the Panjshiris. The offensive on Panjshir is ongoing and indicate that the Taliban has captured major parts of Panjshir without much resistance. But with the Taliban capture of Panjshir, they will find it difficult to retain control as the Panjshiris could rely on guerilla tactics and terrain to raise the costs for the Taliban. The lack of resistance to the Taliban offensive is indicative of this possibility. The defenders have not surrendered but may have disappeared to fight another day.Read the full article in ThePrint

How should India's Vaccine Mandate Policy look like?

The recent wave of Covid-19 infections across the United States has been a setback for employers, schools, and universities who were readying to open their offices and campuses. From a "no mask needed for the fully vaccinated" policy 50 days back to vaccines being made compulsory by both state administrations and private companies alike, the Covid-19 vaccine has become imperative for the recovery process from the pandemic.Given the population size of India and the current pace of vaccinations in the country, the threat of future waves of Covid-19 infections still looms large. Recently, employer institutions (both government as well as private) along with public service provider businesses in the country have mandated the Covid-19 vaccine for their employees and customers, respectively.But if there is a vaccine mandate issued in India, what would be the ideal strategy for implementing it?

India must look to BIMSTEC to drive economic growth

The Indian economy had seen sluggish growth even before the pandemic itself. Covid-19 has exacerbated the situation and the floundering economy has not been able to pick up growth as anticipated.There is a need to reinvent the way the economy is functioning to stimulate the necessary growth. India’s role as an export-oriented economy has never been bright. This is something the state can tap into. The Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC) can help India and the region rebound from the slump and develop economic heft on the global stage.

Should India worry about China's military exercises in Tibet?

The Chinese People’s Liberation Army is undertaking more military exercises across all theatre commands, including Tibet,  to be prepared for real-time contingencies. It recently conducted two days and one night, combined armed forces, blue versus red army military exercises in Tibet last week. Its Tibet Military District (TMD) reportedly deployed more than ten combat units for these military exercises. These units were divided into two teams, the blue and red armies. The red army was the PLA, while the blue army most likely resembled India. This is not the first time such exercises were conducted by the PLA’s TMD, Western Theatre Command (WTC) or Xinjiang Military District’s (XMD) South Xinjiang Military Command – all three are directly or indirectly responsible for a contingency on the border with India.The article was originally published in the Times of India's TOI+ 

Exploring a new geopolitical partnership — the India-Russia-Japan triangle

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It helps that India has strong ties with both Russia and Japan. Delhi shares common security and economic interests with Tokyo, and the two Quad members face a common adversary in China

India is looking to make significant moves in an oft-neglected patch of the Indo-Pacific. It is exploring the possibility of a special trilateral meeting between India, Russia and Japan during the upcoming sixth edition of the Eastern Economic Forum (EEF) in Vladivostok, Russia.

Engagement with Russia in its pacific territory will help India look beyond the Quad grouping and also pursue its goals of economic partnerships in Russia’s Far East.

Read the full article on Hindustan Times

Xi Jinping’s CCP is daring to go where even Taliban wouldn’t — separate kids from smartphones

The strongest of the four fundamental forces known to modern physics is called, well, the strong force. At the same distance it is 137 times stronger than electromagnetism and 10³⁸ times more powerful than gravity. The strong force keeps sub-atomic particles attached to each other.

Modern physicists who are also modern parents know better. The strongest force in nature is the one that keeps teenagers attached to smartphones.

A lot of energy is required to separate them and the outcome is exothermic, exosonic and often explosive. I have written about my experiments with this area of physics in a Debates with my Daughters column.So when some of my colleagues wondered whether the Taliban 2.0 regime in Kabul would ban smartphones, I responded that it would be quite unlikely. Telephone penetration in Afghanistan in the 1990s during Mullah Omar’s days was negligible. It is over 70% today in a country where half the population is less than 18 years old. The Talibs themselves are probably more addicted to smartphones than the other addictive substances available in their country; although like people around the world they are bound to claim that they need the phone for work-related purposes.

Climate Change Is the Biggest Threat to Indian Ocean Security

“The Indian Ocean is warming at a higher rate than the other oceans around the world,” revealed Swapna Panickal, a meteorological scientist at the Indian Institute of Tropical Meteorology, based on the recently released IPCC report. This is just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the issues concerning the Indo-Pacific. But the threat of an existential crisis due to natural disasters for a number of island states in the region requires a joint plan of action to tackle the current situation.The dormant Indian Ocean Rim Association (IORA) has the ability – and the need – to take the initiative on protecting the region’s interests amid the unfolding climate crisis.