Facebook services integration comes with trade-offs

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.In case you are interested in technology policy, you might have heard rumours about Facebook trying to merge its services, Facebook, Instagram, and WhatsApp, for a few years now. The very idea of the move has proven to be controversial since its inception.Earlier this week, Facebook allowed select users on Messenger and Instagram to message from one app to the other, and we got one of our first glimpses on what integration of Facebook platforms might look like.As I hinted in the introduction, there is some historical context to this. The idea has been in the works for a few years now. The progress on this has also been chronicled well by Steven Levy in his book, Facebook: The Inside Story. It is an excellent read, but if you do not have the time, here is a short summary.

Police reforms still a distant dream

The Rashomon effect is named after a 1950 movie made by Akira Kurosawa. In the movie, a murder is described by four witnesses in contradictory ways. Their description reflects their own subjective interpretation and vested interests rather than the objective truth. If their testimonies are used as evidence in a litigation, this can result in the unravelling of the case due to inconsistency. Many famous cases recently have resulted in zero indictment for either lack of evidence, contradictions or hostile witnesses. The 2G scam or Babri demolition are two well known cases, which resulted in all acquittals. This failure could also be because the prosecution did not build a watertight case, or the investigation was shoddy. Was the investigation or prosecution shoddy deliberately orbecause of a lack of training and resources with the officers?These questions come to mind as we witness the evolving case of a brutal gangrape and murder of a young woman in Hathras in Uttar Pradesh. The police say they filed a first information report on the same day as the incident. The woman died more than two weeks later as she was moved from one hospital to another, due to her serious injury. Before she died, she identified the group that savagely assaulted her. She was cremated hastily by the police in the middle of the night, and even her family was denied the right to claim her body. Now the police say that the rape charge was after a week, when she was in hospital, casting a doubt on her. Senior officers are saying that forensic evidence shows there was no rape. A second post-mortem was not allowed or conducted.Read More

WHO’s COVAX Vaccine Access Initiative Won’t Succeed Without India’s Help

by Ruturaj Gowaikar and Shambhavi NaikDespite multiple lockdowns, forms of treatment and therapies, and intermittently aggressive contact-tracing, countries around the world have failed to arrest the spread of the novel coronavirus to the extent they had intended. A vaccine administered to 70-80% of the global population seems now to be the only path to normalcy.While this is an ideal figure, the whole world – much less any individual country – doesn’t have the capacity to manufacture and distribute these doses in a reasonable time frame. Further, the expertise to develop, test, manufacture and distribute the vaccine is scattered around the world. So in the face of an international pandemic, it is imperative that countries work together to share their expertise and abilities to deliver adequate quantities of a reliable and tested vaccine to everyone.

The COVID-19 Vaccine Global Access Facility (COVAX), an initiative of 172 countries is one platform to exchange expertise and enable equitable access to the vaccine. COVAX plans to pool economic resources of its member countries to achieve two objectives: enable vaccine developers to make high-risk investments for the development of vaccines, and subsidise vaccine costs for middle- and low-income countries. (Read more)

The need for anti-trust reform

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.Earlier this month, the Competition Commission of India dismissed an anti-trust case against Amazon. Here is some context. The Dutch apparel company Beverly Hills Polo Club (BHPC) approached CCI, claiming that Amazon had been indulging in anti-competitive practices. They had plenty of allegations, and strong evidence to support their claim. Let me go through them one at a time.1.         BHPC claimed that they do not sell on Amazon and rely on their own website (and Tata Cliq) for selling their products. However, Amazon offers similar products at a deeply discounted rate which makes it unviable for BHPC to compete with the prices being offered. Sacrificing profit for market share has long been Amazon’s approach to business and its deep pockets give it the financial muscle to do that.

Needed: Price Assurance

One silver lining to the 24 per cent fall in quarterly GDP between April and June was that growth in the agriculture sector was positive at 3.4 per cent. This is the first time in India’s history that we are experiencing a steep recession without any adverse shock of drought or a failed monsoon affecting agriculture. Another notable positive was the robust procurement of the spring harvest (Rabi crop), especially of wheat. Not just the frontrunners like Punjab andHaryana, but also states like Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh had a good Rabi procurement via the Food Corporation of India. When FCI does procurement, usually through its designated agencies, based in various states, it means that the farmer gets the assured price called the Minimum Support Price (MSP). That was over Rs 1,900 per quintal this time.The MSP is determined as a political decision, based on inputs given by the Commission on Agricultural Costs and Prices (CACP). This commission was set up nearly 60 years ago, and provides a logical and scienti¦c basis to costs, and hence what is a reasonable price to be paid for the crops. Due to input cost escalation for seeds, pesticides, diesel, credit, fertilisers etc, the MSP too needs to go up, so that the farmer receives an adequate return. Otherwise, it is a loss-making proposition. In the past 50 years, the average escalation in MSP has been about 6 per cent per yearfor wheat and similarly for paddy. But the actual procurement by the government agency has gone up nearly 70 to 80 times during this period.Read More 

Modi govt mustn’t hesitate to make Covid vaccine free for Indians. It only costs Rs 80,000 cr

Adar Poonawalla’s recent tweet prompted some discussion on India’s vaccination strategy. The CEO of the Serum Institute of India, one of the world’s largest vaccine manufacturers, asked if “the government of India will have 80,000 crore available, over the next one year” to pay for the purchase and distribution of the Covid-19 vaccine to everyone in the country. My own colleagues estimate that it will cost between Rs 50,000-250,000 crore (depending on the vaccine) to vaccinate 80 percent of India’s population within a year.Read MoreYou can read the article in Hindi here.

Heed Napoleon’s words as China fancies its odds of taking Taiwan

The ongoing confrontation between Indian and Chinese troops along the Himalayan frontiers is serious, but pales in comparison with the situation across the Taiwan Strait. Over the weekend of 18-19 September, China’s People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) and Navy (PLAN) flew 37 aircraft—including fighters and bombers—across the centre line that has served as the informal boundary between the mainland and Taiwan. One of the intruding pilots declared to Taiwanese defenders on the radio that “there is no median line in the Taiwan Strait." Beijing’s intrusions coincided with and were certainly a reaction to a US state department official’s visit to Taipei. As an intimidatory tactic, China’s move is highly risky. One miscalculation by a pilot or an air defence operator could spark a conflict that could well draw in the United States and its allies into a bigger war.Read more

Don’t ask the SC for loan waiver

If you have borrowed money as a home or business loan, you are bound by contract to repay that loan. Repayment is over a period of time, so you also pay the time value of money, i.e. interest. Due to the lockdown, the GDP for three months of April to June was down 24 per cent. For many people there was no income. As per CMIE data, 12 crore people lost jobs in the month of April. Imagine if you were running a restaurant.Suddenly there were zero customers. You still have to pay rent, electricity and salaries. And of course you have to pay interest and EMI on your loan, which is needed to run the business.Imagine if you were making unbranded shirts to supply to a large retail chain. You bought the cloth, buttons, collars, thread and made 10,000 shirts for delivery.Read More   

Why we need to rethink how we disagree online

This article originally appeared in the Deccan Herald. An excerpt is reproduced here.Intentions as well as consequences are important in the information ecosystem. In July, an anonymous Twitter handle that purportedly offers ‘unpopular unapologetic truths’ distastefully advised its male followers to "only marry virgins". A quick Twitter search suggests that this wasn't the first time this account had engaged in such rhetoric, it wasn't the last either – but on this particular occasion it broke out from its regular set of followers to garner wider attention.Understandably, there was outrage. Some of the account's past content was called out, regular followers of the account were called out, both the tweets in question and the account were reported in unison by multiple users and more. However, two days later the account itself declared victory stating that interest in its content had increased and 'weak' followers had been cleared out.Earlier in the year, efforts by the campaign 'Stop Funding Hate' led to a movie streaming service, a business school and an ad-network excluding a far-right Indian website from their ad programs. However, the website itself claimed an increase in voluntary contributions 'upto 700 per cent' and also stated that there was no drop in advertising revenues.And in an ongoing instance, in late August, a news anchor tweeted out a ‘teaser’ video of an upcoming series that claimed it would unearth a conspiracy enabling minorities to occupy a disproportionate number of civil services posts in the country. An indicative analysis, using the tool Hoaxy, seemed to show that a lot of the initial engagement came from tweets that were meant to call out the nature of the content via quote tweets.Often, many of these accounts had a large number of followers themselves.Around the same time, an analysis by Kate Starbird, an eminent crisis informatics researcher, showed a misleading tweet by Donald Trump spreading “much farther” through quote tweets than through retweets. She also pointed out that a lot of the early quote tweets were critical in nature and calling on the platform to take action.While the matter of this particular series itself is sub judice, let’s focus on the days just after the tweet in question. In four days, the anchor’s follower count had grown nearly five per cent. In the ensuing period there have also been multiple hashtag campaigns professing their support both for the anchor and channel.What is common in each of these situations is that efforts to call out problematic content may have inadvertently benefitted the content creators by galvanising their supporters (in-group), propagating the content on digital platforms (algorithmic reward) and perhaps even recruiting new supporters who were inclined to agree with the content but are only choosing to participate as a result of the amplification and/or perceived attacks against their points-of-view or beliefs (disagreement with the out-group).

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GST compensation delay put onus on states to mobilise funds from their own sources better. Here’s what they can do

At the end of a recently held Goods and Services Tax (GST) Council meeting, the finance minister signalled the Union government’s inability to pay compensation to the states, describing the revenue shortfall as an ‘Act of God’ caused by the pandemic. The Union abdicating its responsibility and leaving the states on its own is problematic on many grounds. In the last few weeks many commentators have succinctly explained this. But one question still remains unanswered: Can states do anything on their own to hedge against similar risks in the future?The Union has provided two options to the states – either borrow from the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) or from the open market. But both these measures create liabilities. A question worth considering is whether states can mobilise their own resources without creating liabilities.Read More 

Does Lakshman have a right to know?

This article was first published in Deccan Herald. Views are personal.Earlier this week, I decided to scratch an itch that had been bothering me for a while. I took out some time in my calendar after work, dimmed the lights in my room, opened Netflix and started playing Main Hoon Na. I was halfway through the movie; at the point where Lakshman (Zayed Khan) is hanging from a ledge, all my knowledge about data protection came rushing at me.

With ARM in kitty, Nvidia most impressive firm you never heard of

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.Listening to Pivot podcast earlier this week, I came across this quote from Professor Scott Galloway, “Nvidia is the most impressive company you have never heard of”. Up until last week, I would have argued that you could make a stronger case for this statement to be applied to ARM Holdings. But considering that Nvidia bought ARM Holdings from Softbank this week, Prof Galloway is right.In case you do not track the semiconductor space, there is a chance that you are yet to hear about this deal. Or in case you have heard about this, you do not understand why it is important. I discussed in a previous column that while we have been looking elsewhere in the past few months, the US and China have been involved in a high tech geopolitical rivalry around the semiconductor space. The US has been placing sanctions on Chinese companies. The most high profile of which resulted in cutting off Huawei’s access to the world’s leading foundry, making it harder for the Chinese giant to procure chips.

Science and State Power in China

In May 2018, Chinese President Xi Jinping placed an ambitious proposition before the leaders of the country’s scientific community. He called on them to “aim for the frontiers of science and technology” and emerge as the “vanguards in innovation in the new era.” The overarching objective, he said, was for China to become a “major world centre for science and innovation.” This, for Xi, is one of the “responsibilities bestowed by history” upon China’s scientific community. For him, the development of science and technology is a strategic imperative. It’s what will drive future growth and ensure China’s security, overall competitiveness and global standing.At the heart of Xi’s emphasis on and investment in science and technology, therefore, is the goal of enhancing state power. This perspective is not exclusive to the current Chinese leadership. It is the product of historical debate over the role of science and technology in Chinese society. The origins of this conversation can be dated back to the last few decades of the Qing Dynasty, which ended in 1912. Since then, while strengthening state power has remained the core objective of the pursuit of scientific advancement, each generation of leaders has adopted a different pathway. [Read More...]

Why farmers are upset about reforms

Three months ago when Parliament was not in session, the Government of India issued three ordinances. Normally ordinances are issued only as an emergency law, and they have to be converted into proper legislation as soon as Parliament reconvenes. These three ordinances were about agriculture and farming. All three were in the spirit of ‘reforms’, i.e. removing shackles from the farmer. Now one of the ordinances has been passed in the Lok Sabha. The other two are in the pipeline. You would imagine that farmers would welcome any reform that gives them more freedom.But this ‘granting of freedom’ has met with a big backlash. Farmers in Punjab and Haryana have come to the streets. The agitation may spread to Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh too. It has spilled on to highways. Opposition parties too are criticising the ordinance, but that is expected. The ruling party in Punjab is opposing the new law, but asking farmers to not blockade traffic. The most awkward thing for the ruling party in Delhi was that the Union food processing industries minister resigned from the cabinet. She resigned in protest because she claimed that the new law is anti-farmer. But in the four-page resignation letter written to the prime minister she did not spell out how, exactly, the new reformist law was anti-farmer. She belongs to Alkali Dal, a coalition partner to BJP.Read More 

China is an enemy of freedom of thought. It wants the same from other powerful nations

There is now an abundance of analysis and commentary around the world on how countries should respond to challenges posed by China. East Asian countries are concerned about China’s aggressive military moves in the South China Sea, across the Taiwan Straits and the Sea of Japan. India is concerned about Chinese moves along the Himalayan border, across the subcontinent and in the Indian Ocean. Western Europe is having a difficult time with China-backed counterparts in Central and Eastern Europe.

The United States, for its part, has recognised that China presents a multi-dimensional strategic challenge to its global superpower status — one that manifests itself in global trade, technology, cyber and geography. What is consistent across all these perceptions of the nature of the Chinese challenges is that they are about competing interests. Territorial ambition, economic dominance, technological supremacy and a desire for hegemony are all classic manifestations of realpolitik — clashes arising from a tussle for greater power.

Read MoreYou can also read this piece in Hindi, here.

Burden of Bad Loans

The economy shrank by nearly one-fourth during the first three months of this fiscal year. Much of this was due to the harsh lockdown initiated in March. Roughly three-fourths of the economy was practically shut for a month, after which there were a series of renewed lockdowns with partial relaxations. For this quarter, the economy suffered a triple shock, like demand, supply and finance collapsed. Unemployment rose close to 30 per cent in April, rendering nearly 122 million people jobless. In cities, whose workforce consists of 40 per cent migrants on an average, the toll on livelihoods was severe. With the loss of jobs and income, it soon became a food crisis for many urban households, necessitating emergency measures from state governments. The Central government’s initial relief package was to enhance food security by doubling the rations and extending this up to November.The big 20-lakh-crore package announced by the Central government in May consisted largely of liquidity support. For instance, micro, small and medium enterprises are eligible to guaranteed loans up to Rs 3 lakh crore. Of this amount, roughly half has been sanctioned and loans are being disbursed. It is no wonder that the demand for loans is muted since small businesses already hit by zero demand are not keen to take on any additional debt burden. But those small businesses which have a cash management mismatch, i.e., they have pending invoices that have not been paid by their customers, are quite willing to take loan support to tide over their crisis. In effect, such small businesses face a problem of illiquidity; not of insolvency.Read More 

It is time India gave its policy on Tibet some strategic coherence

In a development that attracted relatively little international attention, Xi Jinping unveiled the Communist Party of China’s (CPC’s) new policy towards Tibet at a conclave in late August. As my colleague Manoj Kewalramani explained in the Hindustan Times last week, Xi’s new strategy “entails a mix of persuasion, development, connectivity, indoctrination and coercion". Beijing intends to construct an “ironclad shield to safeguard stability" against separatists and hostile foreign interests by sinicizing Tibetan Buddhism, stepping up ideological education, manufacturing a favourable historical narrative, strengthening border defence, deepening surveillance and enhancing connectivity to neighbouring Chinese provinces. The new policy continues to betray the CPC’s insecurities vis-a-vis Tibet, but it also indicates that Xi believes Beijing occupies the dominating heights of its relationship with Tibet.

He is not wrong in thinking so. Over the past two decades, Beijing has used its growing power to limit the Dalai Lama’s global outreach, severely constrain protests in Tibet, and change the demography of the region. Transforming the Tibetan landscape and economy, it has created vested interests in favour of Beijing’s rule among Tibetans and Han Chinese alike. It has found numerous ways to put pressure on New Delhi to limit formal interactions with the Dharamsala-based Central Tibetan Administration. Even as the PLA has increased transgressions across the length of the India-Tibet border, Beijing has become more forceful in pressing its claims to the Indian state of Arunachal Pradesh, which it claims as “South Tibet".Read More

Regulating online pharmacies must be an inclusive exercise

This article was first published in Deccan Chronicle. Views are personal.The most exciting aspect of looking at tech policy is the sheer amount of sectors it intersects with. Given the nature of the pandemic, more of our world has moved online than ever before, and will continue to do so in the coming months. This applies not just to retail, entertainment, and communication, but also for medical needs. Over the past few weeks, we have witnessed a push in the online pharmacy space.Reliance Industries has spent $83.06 million (₹6.2 billion) in cash to acquire a majority stake in Netmeds, an online pharmacy. Amazon has also launched its own online drug service. There are also other competitors in the space such as 1mg, Medlife, and PharmEasy.

Weekly vouchers will boost demand

The economy is in a deep hole, having contracted by one-fourth in the first three months of the lockdown. Hopefully the speed of contraction is slowing, but we will be lucky to see positive growth of the economy before December. So what is to be done? Everyone is crying hoarse for a fiscal stimulus. There are many suggestions. Most of them involve distributing cash from the central treasury. We may need around 5 per cent of the GDP, i.e. nearly Rs 10 lakh crore. But the central government says we don’t have that much to spare. The coffers are running empty, since tax collection has fallen steeply. Why not borrow? The government is already neck deep in debt, and its debt mountain is so huge, that merely paying interest on past debt costs it Rs 6 lakh crore annually. There is such a thing called sustainable debt, beyond which it is simply not affordable.For an average person the debt that you take on depends on how much EMI you can afford. Similar logic applies to government too. But surely they can ask the Reserve Bank of India to print money, and then distribute it to everyone’s Jan Dhan Yojana account? Not quite. Such automatic ‘monetisation’ of government debt has been prohibited by a contract that it signed with the RBI back in 1997. If that prohibition is not in place then it is tempting to all governments who get elected to use this ‘easy’ option of printing money to finance the deficit. Reckless use of monetisation will simply result in hyperinflation.Read More 

COVID-19 vaccine deployment in India: Lessons we need to learn from the past

It appears that a vaccine(s) is the only way to stop COVID-19 and return the world to some semblance of normalcy. As the race inches to a close, everybody is waiting for their turn to get the vaccine and go meet their friends for a cup of coffee.However, there are several scientific hurdles that still need to be surpassed: how effective would the vaccine be across demographics? For how long will the vaccine confer immunity? Will the virus mutate, rendering the vaccine ineffective? Even if we get a combination of vaccines that answers these questions, the capacity to produce, distribute and monitor adverse events related to the vaccine are going to limit an effective vaccine rollout. Hence, it is important India identifies the vaccine demand, invests in capacity and communicates with the public to enable a smooth immunisation programme.

Lessons from COVID-19 testing

India’s response to detecting the COVID-19 outbreak was reactive, not proactive. For weeks COVID-19 testing was limited to authorised government laboratories, and available conditional on pre-determined criteria. Instead of scaling up testing capacity and aggressively test and trace, the government took a cautious approach, most likely to protect scarce testing resources. However, a strategy to ramp up both kit manufacture and early inclusion of private laboratories could have helped India’s response in containing the spread of the virus. (Read more)