Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
The three elements of China’s innovation model
In November 2018, the New York Times published a series that began with a story titled, The Land that Failed to Fail. The central argument of the piece is that defying Western expectations, the Communist Party has maintained its control in China while adopting elements of capitalism, eschewing political liberalisation, and pursuing innovation. The last of these three — innovation — is the subject of this piece.What drives innovation in China? This is not merely a question about the mechanics of policy, the might of capital, the determination of dogged entrepreneurs, or the brilliance that is conjured up in university dormitories. Increasingly, it is a question that has acquired geopolitical significance, not just in the context of power politics but also in the debate over fundamental values about the political and economic organisation. In other words, the question that China’s march towards becoming a “country of innovators” raises is whether a political system that prioritises control can foster genuine innovation.Answering this requires an understanding of the key elements of the Chinese model of innovation. To my mind, there are three key components of this model—state support, a systems approach towards the development of new technologies and businesses, and building an effective “bird-cage.” There are, of course, other factors like the pursuit of prestige, the desire to rebalance the economy, the need to enhance the effectiveness of governance, and the size of the consumer market, which supports innovation. But it is the first three components that form the key pillars of China’s innovation model.Read More...
All Roads Lead to the Middle Kingdom
In January 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping stood at the podium in Davos defending economic globalisation. He argued that the world needed to “adapt to and guide economic globalisation, cushion its negative impact, and deliver its benefits to all countries and all nations.” And in this process, “China’s development is an opportunity for the world.” All of this was, of course, in the backdrop of the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency in the US.Addressing deputies at the National People’s Congress in March 2018, Xi doubled down on that message: "China will contribute more Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and Chinese strength to the world, to push for building an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world that enjoys lasting peace, universal security, and common prosperity. Let the sunshine of a community with a shared future for humanity illuminate the world!"Both of those speeches reflected strength. The essential message they conveyed was that the world needed China. And under Xi, China now was surer about its destiny and keener than ever to play a larger international role. Yet as 2018 unfolded, this narrative came under severe strain. To assess how, we need to look at three dimensions: Xi’s status as the core of the Communist Party, the pushback against BRI, and the deepening competition with the US. It is the interplay of these three that is shaping China’s future.Read More...
China’s big plan for AI domination is dazzling the world, but it has dangers built in. Here’s what India needs to watch out for.
China has been one of the early movers in the AI space, and evaluating its approach to AI development can help identify important lessons and pitfalls that Indian policy makers and entrepreneurs must keep in mind.
Trump's gamble, China's gain
US President Donald Trump's unilateralism in East Asia is increasingly benefiting China. Xi Jinping’s approach, in contrast is furthering the broader narrative of a China that is open to deeper multilateral engagement.
Trump's unilateralism in East Asia increasingly benefits China.
On his way home from the Singapore summit, US President Donald Trump announced in an interview for Fox News that he would be taking strong action on trade, saying that China was likely to be "a little bit upset". And indeed, three days later his administration slapped Chinese goods with a 25-percent tariff, provoking a sharp reaction from Beijing.That was despite China's support and assistance with the North Korea issue in the lead-up to the Singapore summit. For Trump, trade disputes, multilateral engagement, and the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula appear to be distinct, unrelated issues. In his unilateral world, there is little connection between geoeconomics and geopolitics.Chinese President Xi Jinping has adopted a completely different approach to global politics and economy, which seems to be paying off with every unilateral action Trump takes on the international arena. This seems to be the case with the US engagement of North Korea as well.Read more here>
The Long Game in the South China Sea
Expanded security infrastructure and repeated displays of might are now primarily about presenting a psychological fait accompli to China’s neighbours and the US. This is Beijing’s long game. The aim is to expand capacities and project power in order to emerge as the preeminent power controlling the area.
China outwitted the US by landing H-6 strategic bombers on Woody Island. Can the US get its act together?
Tensions are once again simmering in the South China Sea after Chinese media reported that the People’s Liberation Army Air Force (PLAAF) had landed H-6K strategic bombers on an airstrip on Woody Island, which is part of the Paracels group of islands. An official website of the Chinese armed forces reported:
"Several H-6Ks from an unidentified aviation division, headed by division commander Hao Jianke, took off from an undisclosed air base in South China and made a simulated strike against sea targets before landing on an island in the South China Sea…the operation provided experience for Air Force bomber units to use islands as their bases."
Analysts believe that the deployment of the H-6K long-range strategic bomber on Woody is likely to give the PLA coverage across the South China Sea region. Beijing is already believed to have deployed the HQ-9 surface-to-air missile systems, advanced radar systems, and truck-mounted surface-to-air or anti-ship cruise missiles on Woody Island.Read more here>
Breaking down China’s AI ambitions
The Social Credit System is about much more than surveillance and loyalty, as popularly understood. Nudging persons to adopt desirable behaviour and enhancing social control are part of the story. But there are larger drivers of this policy. It is fundamentally linked to the Chinese economy and its transformation to being more market driven.
China unveiled a plan to develop the country into the world’s primary innovation centre for artificial intelligence in 2017. It identified AI as a strategic industry, crucial for enhancing economic development, national security, and governance.The Chinese government’s command innovation approach towards AI development is crafting a political economy that tolerates sub-optimal and even wasteful outcomes in the quest for expanding the scale of the industry. Consequently, the industry is likely to be plagued by concerns about overinvestment, overcapacity, quality of products, and global competitiveness.In addition, increasing friction over trade with other states and President Xi Jinping’s turn towards techno-nationalism along with tightening political control could further undermine China’s AI industry. Before we dive into the challenges, here’s some background.Read more here>
No, The World Isn’t Heading Towards a Cold War
The United States’ listing of China as a “competitor,” “rival” and “revisionist power” in its National Security Strategy has led many to postulate the beginning of a new Cold War. Unfortunately, that construct is neither sufficient nor instructive in understanding the changes that are afoot in the international order.
The Cold War construct is neither sufficient nor instructive in understanding the changes that are afoot in the international order.
Walking into the foreign ministry press conference on December 19th last year, Hua Chunying was her stoic self. As she stood before the crowd of reporters, with the blue and white map of the world depicting China at its center behind her, she spelt out Beijing’s position on the US administration’s new National Security Strategy. The document had identified China, along with Russia, as a “competitor,” “rival” and “revisionist power.” This marked a significant shift in Washington’s strategic posture as it pertains to Beijing. In response, America, Hua said, must “abandon outdated notions such as a Cold War mentality.”Alas, the Cold War is in vogue these days. A quick internet search will lead to a plethora of pieces, from alarmist to analytical, discussing the contours of an emerging Cold War between China and the US.[1]The meat of such analyses is the understanding that China’s rapid rise coupled with the relative decline of the West is leading to tectonic changes in the world order.This is manifesting in China becoming more authoritarian internally and assertive globally, via growing business and investment ties, deepening socio-political linkages across countries, expanding hard power capacity and projecting its system as an alternative governance model vis-a-vis liberal democracy. All of this is occurring at a time when the West is still struggling economically while suffering from a crisis of faith, with fundamental values, such as free trade, respect for human rights, international cooperation and commitment to multiculturalism under pressure from conservative and right wing forces.Read more here>
The vulnerabilities of Xi Jinping and China's Communist Party
Xi's rapid consolidation of power has led some to conclude that China is descending into an era of dictatorship, with an all-powerful strongman in charge. Despite all the accumulation of power, however, Xi, and even the party itself, are far more vulnerable than is apparent.
Today, despite all the accumulation of power, Xi and the CPC are far more vulnerable than is apparent.
In advance of the National People's Congress (NPC) meeting in Beijing, which will mark the official start of Xi Jinping's second term as the president of the People's Republic of China, the Chinese Communist Party's (CPC) Central Committee proposed a set of constitutional amendments, chief among them being the removal of presidential term limits and the inclusion of "Xi Jinping Thought" in the country's constitution.NPC deputies are expected to overwhelmingly support these changes in a vote on Sunday, effectively allowing Xi to remain at the helm of Chinese politics for as long as he deems fit.Ever since the 19th Party Congress in October 2017, Xi has been making moves to upend norms of collective leadership and succession that were cobbled together after the excesses of the Mao Zedong era.Read more here>