India-U.S. space cooperation, from handshake to hug

India and the United States agreeing to advance space collaboration in several areas, under the ‘initiative on critical and emerging technology’ umbrella, including human space exploration and commercial space partnership, comes at a crucial time for both countries. This follows from the eighth meeting of the U.S.-India Civil Space Joint Working Group (CSJWG), that was held on January 30-31, 2023.

Armed forces: Coping with changing social norms

Sexual behaviour norms recently knocked on the doors of the cultural and disciplinary space of the armed forces. A five-judge bench of the Supreme Court went on to clarify that armed forces personnel can be punished for adultery despite a 2018 judgement decriminalising adultery.

It did so by striking down Section 497 of the IPC on grounds of gender justice by treating a wife as the property of her husband and thus denying constitutional guarantees of dignity, liberty, privacy, and sexual autonomy.

US-China balloon war points to troubling polarisation trend. But India can help ease tension

On 1 February, a high-altitude balloon of Chinese origin was spotted over the US state of Montana, which also houses one of the country’s three active nuclear missile silos. The US government officially described it as a surveillance balloon with no immediate military or physical threat but was quick to go back on its initial assessment. Despite Chinese claims that the balloon was a harmless “civilian airship” that had unintentionally flown into US airspace, on 3 February, Secretary of State Antony Blinken cancelled his much-anticipated diplomatic visit to Beijing. Subsequently, on 4 February, US forces shot down the balloon over the country’s South Carolina coast and are now proceeding to collect some of the debris.

What Chinese balloons are telling India about espionage

The saga of the alleged Chinese spy balloon over the United States ended in an anticlimactic puff of smoke on February 4 after an American F-22 shot down the airship over coastal waters in the Atlantic Ocean.

News of the Chinese airship went public on February 3. This was not a far fetched claim - in 1998 a weather balloon went off course over Canada and drifted across the Atlantic before coming down in the Arctic Sea.

Galwan to Leh police report—Modi govt’s censoring information, China-style

The flag of doubt raised about the loss of territory in  Ladakh by the superintendent of police of Leh, has brought into sharp focus the style of information management preferred by the Union government. The report evoked memories of Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s statement at the all-party meeting on 19 June 2020—“Neither has anyone entered our territory nor is anyone in control of our border posts.” Though clarifications were issued by the PMO, the reality that China had changed the status quo in some areas by preventing the movement of Indian patrols has remained the nub of the ongoing border crisis.

Pakistan’s peace calls with India scream strategic desperation. It won’t bear results

Strategic desperation could be the reason Pakistan Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif is seeking to improve relations with India. Besieged by its internal politico-strategic environment, achieving peace can benefit Pakistan only if it can barter its real and imagined security concerns for economic relief. A possibility provided by its geographical location; alongside Afghanistan and at the crossroads of South, West and Central Asia. Moreover, unlike Afghanistan, it also has a coastline in proximity to West Asia’s global energy hub.

India’s Defence Budget: As Border Tensions With China Simmer, Can Govt Level Up?

As soon as the Union Defence Budget goes live, another cycle of discussions on its size and composition will begin. Analysts will focus on how the expenditures deviate from the previous year. The government on its part, will compare the current spending to what it was in 2014 to impress upon us that it has done enough.

Such discussions are of limited value. The budget is only a financial statement based on the government's priorities. The Defence Budget is then, a result of intra-governmental negotiations that consider India's threat perceptions, national security goals, defence capabilities, and the economic climate. As the government doesn't release any of these upstream ideas as official public documents, the Defence Budget becomes a focal point for understanding India's stance.

India-Egypt Ties: Forging A Deeper Cooperation

Egyptian President Abdel Fattah Saeed Hussein Khalil el-Sisi has been invited as the chief guest for India’s 76th Republic Day. Egypt is also among the nine countries India has invited to participate in the G20 summit this year. Last year, both countries celebrated the 75th anniversary of diplomatic relations. India and Egypt share civilisational relations that have stood the test of time and are a testament to Afro-Asian unity. During the scourge of the Covid-19 pandemic, India sent an Indian-made vaccine to Egypt, while during the devastating second wave of Covid-19 in India, Egypt sent emergency medicines, oxygen cylinders, oxygen concentrators and Remdesivir to India. Egypt due to its historical legacy, the largest army in the region and strategic location, has emerged as a leading player in the Middle East North Africa (MENA) region and India’s key partner in the region. The relationship between both countries has been gaining momentum with the presidency of Sisi since 2014 with deeper strategic and increased economic engagements. The visit of President Sisi to India provides opportunities for both countries to rekindle their historical friendship and scale up their relations as strategic partners.

Re-evaluating bioweapons amid global political fragility

Unstable political systems, ineffectual international organisations, and unprecedented technological advancements have created a global environment that can enable the development and deployment of bioweapons. New-age bioweapons could be used for more than just as weapons of mass destruction. This necessitates a new approach to mitigate risks by staying apace with technological development. India must take a leadership position at the Biological Weapons Convention while strengthening internal surveillance and health care systems to ensure its biosecurity. Investments in emerging technologies will be crucial to deter biosecurity threats.

Army’s most potent weapon against China on Indian borders—human force

In the Himalayas, it is not mass—which China perhaps can muster—that will matter most. Instead, the ability to sustain troops logistically is what counts, and that ability can be put under strain even by small groups that can threaten the adversary’s rear. General Manoj Pande, Chief of Army Staff, addressed the media in Delhi ahead of Army Day on 15 January. He described the situation along the northern border as stable, under control, but unpredictable. General Pande declared that the Army is highly prepared and well poised to meet any challenges, even though China has enhanced its troops across the Eastern border. It is an assurance that will possibly be tested in due course.

Don’t wait for National Security Strategy. Bring theatre command system, first things first

The public debate on the politically mandated structural reform of the military to a theatre command system received a booster dose when former Army chief General M.M. Naravane described the prevailing implementation approach without a National Security Strategy as “putting the cart before the horse”. It is a smoking gun assertion for the tardy progress of the reform and indicates a military view that political guidance is lacking to fulfill the task assigned.

Who should call the shots in a theatre command—Air Force, Army, Navy? Let the context decide

Last week, I wrote about the military identity being targeted by civilian authorities in the context of civil-military relations. The argument made was that the impact of the military’s denuded identity could manifest itself in tainted military advice. That, in turn, could cost the nation dear. In fact, the phenomenon is layered atop another identity struggle that got deepened three years ago when the Narendra Modi government created the post of the Chief of Defence Staff and mandated him to restructure the Armed Forces by creating Theatre/Joint Commands. Thereafter, what has apparently transpired is the boosting of self-preservation efforts due to perceived threats to the individual Service identity that has been traditionally based on land, sea and air identity. Integration through restructuring is facing headwinds that are derived from such perceptions. The end result is that the Theatre Command is nowhere in sight.

Canada-India Relations: Revitalising for a New Era

Canada recently released its Indo-Pacific strategy acknowledging the region’s centrality in present-day geopolitics. The region is home to 65 percent of the world’s population and will have 50 percent of the world’s GDP by 2040. At the same time, the Indo-Pacific has many geopolitical hotspots and is seeing a deepening of great power rivalry with the emergence of a belligerent China. Also, climate change is a pressing challenge for the Indo-Pacific, given that it is not only home to some of the fastest-growing economies in the world but also 50 percent of global greenhouse gas emissions. Canada’s Indo-Pacific strategy provides a comprehensive blueprint for its engagement in the region with an initial investment of around $2.5 billion over the next five years and the identification of India as a key partner. The publication of the strategy provides a new opportunity for both India and Canada to recalibrate their geo-economic and geopolitical engagement. But this requires addressing key political obstacles and deepening economic ties.

India’s civil-military fusion order of the day but not at the cost of military identity

It is a no-brainer that religion and caste continue to hold the centre stage in India’s domestic political firmament and impose many obstacles on its developmental path. What is often not acknowledged is that identity issues are also germane to defence reforms. The primary contest is between the identities of civil authorities and the military.

India’s political leadership, which represents the civil identity, would prefer to have the Armed Forces on a tightrope that it can unleash on the nation’s enemies in order to protect national interests. Unquestioning obedience is the political preference and the route taken mostly by authoritarians and despots. But in democracies like India, the leadership is expected to confer and be advised on how and for what purpose should the military be deployed against the adversaries.

Yangtse showed Army capability but it’s Navy that can shift balance of power in India’s favour

The troops of two nuclear powers, India and China, had a face-off on 9 December in Arunachal Pradesh’s Tawang sector at a height of 16,000 feet at sub-zero temperatures. They were carrying weapons but didn’t use them. Perhaps following the orders of their political masters passed down through their military bosses, the troops reportedly restricted themselves to pushing, shoving, and punching. Some used clubs to inflict injuries that weren’t serious but required hospitalisation.

Military force application seemed to be bound within some mutually understood parameters. The encounter was short. Local commanders soon met and blamed each other. Anodyne statements about the need to avoid such incidents in future ensued.

Theatre commands to defence university, why Indian security interests need a political push

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s clarion call for Atmanirbhar Bharat in May 2020 made self-reliance a policy goal for the Ministry of Defence. Despite decades of effort, India’s defence industrial ecosystem has failed to achieve substantive progress and indigenous research, development and production capabilities remain a challenge.

Time will reveal whether the slogan has been matched by accomplishment. However, even if Atmanirbhartha is accomplished to any acceptable degree, India’s military effectiveness will require the fulfilment of two other crucial reform initiatives – defence university and theatre commands. Both reforms have the potential to provide massive doses of energy to advance India’s military effectiveness through the improvement of leadership and achieving jointness among the three Services through organisational restructuring.

Akhand Bharat shouldn’t enter Indian military gates. Army can’t afford to lose focus

In 1999, Former Prime Minister Atal Bihari Vajpayee visited the Minar-e-Pakistan in Lahore. It symbolised the Indian State’s acceptance of Pakistan’s sovereignty. On 1 December 2022, Prime Minister Narendra Modi, writing on the occasion of India assuming G20 presidency, emphasised the lasting appeal of spiritual traditions that advocate the fundamental oneness of us all. He reiterated ‘Vasudhaiva Kutumbakam’, or  ‘The world is one family’.

Indian military leaders must speak with caution, media twisting Army’s PoK remark

India regaining Pakistan-Occupied Kashmir is a topic that makes periodic appearances in India’s domestic and foreign policy discourses. On 22 November, Northern Army Commander Lt General Upendra Dwivedi, while answering a question about the Army’s position on defence minister Rajnath Singh’s statements on reclaiming PoK, said this: “As you are aware, a parliamentary resolution exists on the subject and therefore it is nothing new. As far as the Indian Army is concerned, it will carry out any order given by the government of India, and whenever such orders are given, we will always be ready for it.”

Govt filled Armed Forces Tribunal posts but didn’t consider the members’ usefulness criteria

The Narendra Modi government has approved the appointment of 11 judicial and 12 administrative members in the Armed Forces Tribunal on 15 November. The approval derives its powers and procedures from the Tribunals Reforms Bill, 2021 passed by both the Houses of Parliament in August 2021.

The Bill, part of a broader ongoing tussle between the judiciary and the executive/legislature, is being contested in the Supreme Court. In essence, the issue is about the separation of powers and the independence of the judiciary. At its core, it is about the institutional control of the various tribunals that have been established to relieve the high courts of the heavy burden cast on them by large numbers of pending cases. However, the focus here is on the AFT in the context of the larger tussle.

Could the Quad Help With India’s Space Station Dreams?

Last month, China launched its Long March 5B heavy-lift rocket into low Earth orbit, carrying the final module for the Tiangong space station. The significance of the completion of China’s space station was somewhat lost, however, as much of the attention was taken away by the uncontrolled re-entry of the Long March 5 B’s main body