Commentary

Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy

Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Nation Building Lessons from a Bollywood Song

By Nitin Pai

Perhaps the most inspiring lines celebrating India, as evergreen as they are rousing, are from a Hindi film made just 13 years after Independence. In the title song of Ram Mukherjee’s Hum Hindustani (1960), Usha Khanna, Prem Dhawan and Mukesh earnestly persuade us Indians to forget the tired old matters of the past, and shape a collective new narrative for a new era. “Chhodo kal ki batein, kal ki baat purani/Naye daur mein likhenge, mil kar nayi kahaani, hum Hindustani!".

Read More
Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Strategic Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

SPARSH Will Make Defence Pension Digital, but Problems Won’t Disappear

By Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon

The management of defence pensions has been taxing the capabilities of the Ministry of Defence for decades. The implementation of the One Rank One Pension or OROP) scheme has turned into a legal and bureaucratic battleground. Some ex-Servicemen have locked horns with the Executive and the Judiciary, but justice remains elusive. Even the refixing of pension every five years that was due in 2019 has not been done. The reasons for the delay are revealing of the awkward consequences brought about by the interplay of multiple actors.

The Ministry of Defence (MoD), it is said, has not refixed the pensions on the due date since the issue was sub-judice. An unrepresentative group of ex-Servicemen had filed a case in the Supreme Court that the MoD was violating the OROP principle by replacing it with ‘One rank multiple pensions’ for persons with the same length of service. On 16 March 2022, the court dismissed the case and directed the re-fixation to be carried out from 1 July 2019 and arrears paid within three months.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

Har Ghar Tiranga is a good idea, but not every Indian has the means to follow Flag Code

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

In the 75th year of India’s Independence, the Indian citizen has formally and finally been entrusted with the individual responsibility to honour and preserve the dignity of the National Flag. Though the right to fly the flag was confirmed by the Supreme Court in 2002, two recent amendments to the Flag Code have expanded its scope in terms of time and availability. Earlier, it was only allowed to be hoisted between sunrise and sunset and had to be made of khadi. Now, the flag can be flown at any time and can be machine made of cotton, polyester, wool or silk.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

AFSPA wives’ SC petition is embarrassing for Modi govt. MoD, Army must get their act together

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

A setback happened in December 2021, when 13 innocent civilian lives were lost in a counter-insurgency operation by a detachment led by a Major of 21 Para (Special Forces) in the Mon district of Nagaland. Justice has been awaiting deliverance. On 20 July, the Supreme Court, after hearing a petition filed by the wives of the army personnel, stayed all further legal proceedings that were based on the report of the Special Investigation Team (SIT) constituted by the state police. It evoked a legal necessity enshrined in the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) that prosecution can be carried out only with the Central government’s sanction. Such a sanction was requested by Nagaland in April 2022 but has, thus far, met with silence from the Ministry of Defence (MoD).

Read More
Economic Policy, Strategic Studies Anupam Manur Economic Policy, Strategic Studies Anupam Manur

Why crisis-hit Pakistan won’t go the Lanka way

By Anupam Manur

There are a few factors that might prevent an all-out collapse like we saw in Sri Lanka. First, Pakistan has been here before. Many times, in fact.  Pakistan has sought financial aid from the UAE, China, and the IMF in 2013, 2016 and 2018.  Second, the international community is wary about a Sri Lanka styled economic and political collapse in a nuclear armed country. The threat of rogue players gaining access to nukes often makes lenders a lot more lenient in issuance of fresh loans and repayment terms. Third, Pakistan has more generous friends. Pakistan received a loan from Saudi Arabia and recently, the UAE government has offered to acquire 10 to 12 per cent equity shares in Pakistan government-owned companies through its sovereign wealth funds.

Read More
Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies Guest User Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies Guest User

Modi said Neighbourhood First. Sri Lanka crisis is India’s chance to prove it

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled for his life after being driven out by the people of Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, Nepal’s former prime minister on a three-day visit at the invitation of the BJP, said ‘issues left by history’ must be addressed in order to realise the full potential of the bilateral ties. This perspective is often mirrored across India’s bilateral ties with all its subcontinental neighbours – Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. Each of these relationships carries the weight of history that continues to both bind and rupture the spirit of friendliness.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

India can play bigger role in global nuclear politics. Ukraine fence-sitting stands in way

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

In war, strategic contestation may not easily knuckle under the passing winds of tactical successes and defeats. The problem is always about judging the flow so that informed decisions can be made on how much and in what manner should force be applied. The Russians have used artillery and missile firepower to devastate Ukrainian resistance and taken control of nearly the entire Donbas region. An uneasy tactical pause is occupying the stage and the contours of a protracted conflict are discernible.

Read More
Strategic Studies Pranay Kotasthane Strategic Studies Pranay Kotasthane

How the Defence Pension Bill became a Big Burden

By Pranay Kotasthane

The history of this burgeoning defence pension bill has valuable lessons for policy-making. Here’s how India’s defence pension bill became a financial burden. Before 1965, soldiers below officer ranks were recruited through a mechanism resembling Agnipath in the sense that they served seven years of compulsory service and didn’t receive a pension on retirement. This service period was first raised in 1965 to 10 years for bulking the armed forces after the 1962 defeat. Since a pension required a minimum service of 15 years, most soldiers still didn’t qualify.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

Agnipath is directed correctly. But Modi govt needs Amit Shah to budge

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

Seldom does a scheme with a fanciful name live up to its name and that too with such devastating fidelity as Agnipath. It has delivered on its name almost instantaneously by lighting fires across India. The inflamed passions of the unemployed found expression and targeted the Narendra Modi government’s defence reform that was officially touted to provide an opportunity to the youth to serve the nation.

Read More
Economic Policy, Strategic Studies Guest User Economic Policy, Strategic Studies Guest User

Rough Calculations on Agnipath’s Pension-Saving Potential show why the Change is Crucial

By Pranay Kotasthane

GoI’s official arguments for Agnipath don’t emphasise public finance implications of the policy. Although the media has discussed the unsustainability of the military pension status quo, the official press release said that the only motivation for the scheme is “attracting young talent from the society who are more in tune with contemporary technological trends and plough back skilled, disciplined and motivated manpower into the society”. But skirting fiscal reasons may have created an impression, at the popular level, that GoI needlessly foisted another disruptive scheme on unsuspecting masses. The reality is quite different.

Read More
Strategic Studies Strategic Studies

Agnipath, a chance to transform India’s defense management

By Nitin Pai

Now that India’s government has chosen the four-year tour of duty model as the way to respond to its budget constraint, the policy challenge is to ensure that it achieves the desired objectives, mitigates the downsides and pre-empts unintended consequences. Essentially, it is about understanding who might join the armed forces given these employment conditions, and how this new demographic will change the defence services and Indian society at large.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

Choice pool for CDS shouldn’t have been expanded. Unless it’s about finding a loyal follower

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

Earlier this month, the Narendra Modi government amended the Army, Navy and Air Force Service Regulations to change the framework for eligibility to the post of Chief of Defence Staff. The earlier amendment of 28 December 2019 had restricted the eligibility to serving Chiefs of the three Services.  With the recent amendment, the catchment area of eligibility has been technically widened from three to at least around 180. Now, all serving three-star and retired three-star officers who would not reach 62 years of age on the date of appointment are eligible for the post of CDS. While the initial amendment sufficed to appoint General Bipin Rawat as the first CDS, it appears that there has been a reconsideration and acceptance that a widened base would serve the selection process better.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

Ministry of Defence has struck back on PM Modi’s Chief of Defence Services reform. But he must stay his course

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

Media reports of the Narendra Modi government reviewing issues connected to India’s major and boldest structural defence reforms in the post of the Chief of Defence Staff surfaced last week. It appears to be the canary in the coal mine. Some forces, probably the Ministry of Defence, have probably convinced the leadership of the need for a review. It is worth recalling here that the reforms were not initiated by it. The call was probably a Prime Minister’s Office initiative for which PM Modi himself deserves the credit, for it was not an easy decision to take in the face of entrenched interests and beliefs. The structural change was intended to significantly improve the military effectiveness and optimise the utilisation of scarce resources. The CDS was also politically mandated to execute the reforms.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

Protracted war has damaged global military supply systems. Time for India to step up

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

Nine weeks into the Ukraine War, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres visited the war-ravaged suburbs of Kyiv and stated that war is an absurdity in the 21st century. Reality can be expected to remain deaf to such expressions of anguish as the war enters its tenth week.  Worse, the course of this war is bringing NATO closer to direct involvement with Russia through stepped up supplies of military hardware to Ukraine—which includes artillery and armoured vehicles besides anti-armour, anti-air, air-defence and cyber capabilities.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

How Should India Respond to the US' Unilateral ASAT Test Ban?

By Pranav RS

The United States (US) has pledged to stop conducting destructive direct-ascent anti-satellite (DA-ASAT) testing in space. During the announcement made on 18 April, US vice-president Kamala Harris called on other nations to follow suit in hopes to induce the norm of responsible behaviour in space and mitigating the problem of space debris. To date, China, India, Russia, and the US have been the only countries that have demonstrated debris-creating ASAT capabilities. While the ban is to mitigate the risk of space debris, it neither guarantees the redressal of an arms race in space, nor does it signal the onset of international norms against ASAT testing. Here is how India should respond.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

China’s threat won’t wait for India to get better technology. Army must use more brainpower

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

The images of destroyed tanks in the Ukraine war have rekindled the global debate on the survivability of the tank in the battlefield. In March 2020, Gen Manoj Mukund Naravane, the Chief of Army Staff, said that in the context of the changing character of warfare, the icons of the 20th century such as main battle tanks and fighter aircraft are on their way out and the battle-winning factor in future may not be numerical equivalence but technological superiority.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

Should India insist on large warships after sinking of Russia’s Moskva? The lesson not to take

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

On 14 April, Moskva, the flagship of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet, sank off the coast of Ukraine, in the Black Sea. A controversy immediately surfaced regarding the causes of the loss. The Russians attributed the loss to an accidental fire on board while Ukraine claimed that two of its Neptune Missiles had struck the vessel. US officials have backed Ukraine’s claims. Time should reveal the truth. But for now, the controversy is the poster for the escalation of the Ukraine war that suggests that the war is expanding in its reach, both physically and psychologically. The challenge in judging escalation is that while physical factors can be measured, the intangible nature of the psychological part is mystifying and debatable.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

‘Agnipath’ scheme for military has good intentions. But Modi govt should conduct trials first

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

From the ongoing Ukraine war, some reminders are knocking on the doors of India’s statecraft and in particular, its defence reforms. Admittedly, the context of the war is different, and therefore, extrapolation would be an erroneous approach. However, since all wars imply the use of violence for political purposes, there is some scope that reveals lessons to inform the trajectory of India’s military reforms. For sure, in the course of time, the Ukraine war will be studied both globally and in India. We examine two issues relevant to the Indian context and immaterial to the future course of the Ukraine war — displacement of the civilian population and the management of military manpower. An examination of both these aspects would provide some useful insights into shaping and wielding India’s military power.

Read More
Strategic Studies Guest User Strategic Studies Guest User

Merit Must be the Benchmark For Armed Forces’ Hiring, not Recruitable Male Population Index

By Lt. Gen Prakash Menon

In 2014, the Supreme Court dismissed a PIL alleging that the Army recruitment policy was discriminatory and based on caste, religion and region. The court accepted the Army’s justification regarding the existence of certain regiments that are based on classification related to social, cultural and linguistic homogeneity. The contention was that such homogeneity is considered to be a force multiplier, as a battle-winning factor. The assertion was accepted without challenge. Since 2018, and more recently in March 2022, some Ahir community leaders from South Haryana have been using the Army’s logic to demand the institution of an Ahir Regiment.

Read More