Explained: The Implications of China’s Ever Increasing Defence Budget for India

China announced its annual defence budget of RMB 1.45 trillion (approximately $229.6 billion) in March 2022, a 7.1 per cent year-on-year increase over its 2021 budget of RMB 1.36 trillion ($209.2 billion). In 2020, China had increased its defence budget by 6.6 per cent to 1.27 trillion yuan (US$178 billion).

The Role of Space in the Russia-Ukraine War

An escalation in space could cost more Ukrainian lives and leave Russian forces blind

The Russian special military operation launched against Ukraine is raging. Much of the action by forces on both sides is observable on land, in the air, amritime and cyber domains. curiously few – if any- details are emerging about the role of outer space in the conflict.

Ukraine War Won’t Affect Global Semiconductor Supply, But Will Hit Russia Hard

With the world still reeling from a global chip shortage, the recent crisis in Ukraine sends a bleak message to the already floundering industry. The semiconductor chip supply is yet to recover from the shock dealt by the COVID-19 pandemic. This, coupled with an impending war between two states that are contributors to the global supply chain, is detrimental to the industry’s recovery. The consumer electronics and automotive markets have been massively hit by this chip shortage. Apple, a major manufacturer of mobile phones and laptops, has pushed the release of their new line of MacBook and announced that the number of iPhone models being manufactured would be reduced due to the chip shortage. The automotive sector is still underperforming and major players have yet to resume operations at pre-pandemic levels. The invasion of Ukraine by Russia might have some implications on the global chip supply along with consequences for the Russian semiconductor industry itself.

With Eye on China, India Joins Race To Weaponise Quantum Tech in Future Military Conflicts

On February 23, the Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) made an announcement that went a bit under the radar but can have huge ramifications in the future for developing military technologies. The official statement given by the DRDO stated that a joint team of DRDO and IIT-Delhi successfully demonstrated a Quantum Key Distribution (QKD) link for the very first time in the country between the cities of Prayagraj and Vindhyachal in the state of Uttar Pradesh. An interesting thing to note is that these cities are located at a distance of 100 kilometres from each other. This marks the beginning of the Indian military complex utilising an emerging technology like quantum to enhance domestic defensive capabilities.

Understanding China’s High Tech Espionage Efforts To Modernise The Military

The Department of Defense (DoD) under the United States government recently released its yearly report on the military and security developments in China. This report, acronymised as the DoD report, gives a comprehensive understanding of the progress made by the Chinese armed forces over the year along with elucidating the future plans of the Chinese military. One of the interesting aspects of last year’s DoD report was the focus on China’s industrial espionage efforts on certain advanced technologies which the government thinks holds the key to enhancing the quality of their military systems.

India Needs A Comprehensive Space Strategy

It will not only bolster inter-organisation coordination in India’s space sector, but also help in building investor confidence and projecting the country as a responsible space power

India’s growth and prosperity in the present era is due to its ability to secure its use of outer space. With the advent of the second space age, private NewSpace companies such as SpaceX are leading the charge, and not governmental civilian space agencies or militaries. However, as outlined in the Outer Space Treaty (OST), the existing international laws hold nation-states responsible for the actions and consequences of their private space companies, citizens, and functionaries.

Has Russia Wrecked American ‘G-2’ Plans?

On January 10, the U.S. and Russia held an “extraordinary” session of the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue in Geneva. Unlike the previous two meetings, held in July and September last year, the recent meeting occurred against the backdrop of increasing tensions between the West and Russia. With the growing threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the table, the recent talks included both the issue of strategic stability and a Russian demand for security guarantees from the United States. While much focus has been given to NATO’s eastward expansion as a prime driver of Russian insecurity, it may instead be the Kremlin’s fear of an emergent China-U.S. “G-2” being manifested in Russian strategic behavior.

Defence ministry’s Preferential Market Access policy Is Protectionism. Indian-Made Arms Need Export Market

Prime Minister Narendra Modi gave a clarion call for Atmanirbhar Bharat on 12 May 2020. He said that self-reliance was the only path to fulfil the dream of building a 21st century India in the post-Covid world. Modi made a distinction between self-reliance and being self-centred in a globalised world, observing how “local manufacturing, market and supply chains” had helped India mitigate its Covid-19 crisis. He emphasised that we had to be more “vocal about local products and help them become global.”

Behind Beijng’s proposal to regulate military applications of AI

China recently submitted a position paper on regulating the military applications of artificial intelligence to the sixth review conference of the United Nations Convention on Certain Conventional Weapons (CCW).The takeaway from this position paper is that countries should debate, discuss, and perhaps eschew the weaponization of AI. By initiating a discussion on regulating military applications of AI, Beijing wants to project itself as a responsible international player.

India’s new CDS will have to decide where the loyalty of the military lies

The tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, in a helicopter crash along with 13 others including his wife Madhulika Rawat, his staff, protection party, and the aircrew was shocking. Happening at a time of heightened global and regional geopolitical tensions, it can be a setback to the laudable and long-overdue structural defence reforms initiated in January 2020 by the Narendra Modi government. The reforms were aimed at improving military effectiveness through restructuring measures in two primary domains: civil-military relations and inter-services cooperation. While history will be the ultimate judge of General Rawat’s legacy in both, his role in the changes devised in some aspects of civil-military relations is likely to be the most contentious.

Insurgencies are defeated by democratic politics, not force

The debate over providing Indian armed forces with special powers to carry out domestic counter-insurgency operations has been rejoined following the terrible killings at Oting, Nagaland. It is an important debate, not only to hold state authorities accountable for their actions, but also, more fundamentally, to review how the democratic Indian republic holds together its mind-bogglingly diverse population. Yet, decades after the Armed Forces Special Powers Act (AFSPA) was legislated and invoked, we are no closer to a reconciliation of objectives, a constitutionally defendable consensus, or even a fresh new approach to handling the problem. Since many of the political ingredients of grievance, disaffection and separatism are still out there, the AFSPA has become a lightning rod for popular opposition to the way the Indian republic fights insurgencies, and in the extreme, to the republic itself. We can no longer afford to let such sore wounds fester and proliferate.

Delay in appointing new CDS after Gen. Rawat—Is it about passing the loyalty test?

The sudden and tragic death of India’s first Chief of Defence Staff, General Bipin Rawat, along with twelve others in a helicopter crash is a mortal blow by the hand of fate. Ironically, the CDS’ demise also reverberates across the fate of some senior military leaders who might find themselves being either advantaged or disadvantaged in terms of career progression. Depending on whosoever among the eligible is appointed, a chain reaction along the military hierarchy could change individual fates. Eligibility for the CDS post has been shaped to provide the political leadership to select from a fairly wide range of choices in two domains— serving and retired. The external choice is restricted to former Chiefs not above the age of sixty-five. The internal choice can even be a three-star. So technically, all serving three or four stars are eligible. This is as wide a choice as can be. So, till the announcement of the appointment is made, speculation and conspiracy theories can be expected to run riot.

The Implications of Mutual Assured Vulnerability for the Indo-Pacific Region

China’s nuclear modernisation might establish stability in the US-China nuclear dyad. However, it would have a cascading effect on the nuclear and conventional competition in the Indo-Pacific region

The People’s Republic of China (PRC) has undertaken the qualitative and quantitative modernisation of its nuclear arsenal. In the past two years, China has constructed around 250-300 missile silos, tested a new hypersonic missile system, fielded at least two brigades of its road-mobile DF-41 intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), handed over two Jin-class submarines to the People’s Liberation Army — one of which (Changzheng 18) was commissioned to enter service in April 2021, and continued deploying more road-mobile DF-31 AG launchers and dual-use DF-26 intermediate-range ballistic missiles (IRBMs).

The Price of the Question - Expectations from the India-Russia Summit

The Russian-Indian summit meeting, scheduled for December 6 in Delhi, is designed to breathe new life into the strategic partnership between Moscow and Delhi. The long list of issues that have accumulated for discussion after the forced pause in personal communication between Vladimir Putin and Narendra Modi caused by the coronavirus pandemic is not limited to defence purchases and the joint production of weapons.

Read the full article in Russian on Kommersant.ru

Iran-Pakistan Rivalry In Afghanistan Works for India

The Regional Security Dialogue on Afghanistan held in New Delhi on November 10 marks India’s re-entry into the contested landscape of Af-Pak geopolitics. However, due to the regional states’ differing focus on the terrorism threat, refugee crisis, regional stability etc, Indian concerns about the repercussions of ISI activities in Afghanistan will likely remain a low priority for most regional powers, except Iran. It’s Iran that has both the interest and resources to resist Pakistan’s domination in Afghanistan.

How to prevent accidental wars? Strongmen Putin, Xi, Modi can be triggers

The virtual meeting on 15 November between Presidents Joe Biden of the US and Xi Jinping of China could hopefully be the forerunner to a dialogue process that was so far missing in action. The relationship had turned openly hostile, and the drift towards armed conflict due to misjudgement and miscommunication needed repair. Some political and military leaders had been warning of the risk of an accidental war—a possibility that could have driven both leaders to acknowledge the danger.

Farm Laws lays bare India’s Internal Disunity. It’s Time to Fix it

To some Indians, Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s surprise announcement about repealing the three farm laws may be viewed as a victory for democracy. The forces at play in the political economy may have demonstrated their democratic strength. But India might have lost. For, there is no dispute that India’s economically and strategically important agriculture sector is in dire need of reform. Another thing that India needs to watch out for is that a weakened government, civil unrest, and inability to carry forward important economic reforms can all be exploited by foes.

Time for a Global Ban on Satellite Destruction Tests

Russia is a top-rung space power. In terms of technological capabilities, it ranks alongside the US and even surpasses it in some areas. The Russian establishment has a highly sophisticated understanding of the space domain. Moscow’s intellectual horsepower in space science, economics and strategy is outstanding. The Soviet Union and its successor, the Russian Federation, have demonstrated no less responsibility towards the preservation and protection of space for human activities than any other power. That is what makes Moscow’s anti-satellite (ASAT) test surprising.

Why PM Modi in Army uniform distracts from India’s real goals

Civilian leaders in military uniform are an attraction unmatched by any other clothing. Prime Minister Narendra Modi has worn one every Diwali since the India-China confrontation at Doklam in 2017. This year, he spent some time with the Army and addressed troops at Jammu’s Rajouri, not far from the Line of Control. He was dressed in an Army camouflage jacket and a red-banded hat, worn by Colonels and above. He wore an Indian Army emblem as the crownpiece, so to say, in the middle of the red band around the hat. No rank badges were worn.

The Prime Minister’s oratorical skills and the speech delivered in his inimitable style would have touched the hearts of the troops and uplifted their morale. ‘We are lucky to have a leader like Modi’ would perhaps be a lasting memory for those who saw him in flesh and blood. Even for those who would see it on video, and especially for the millions of his supporters across the world, it would have had a similar effect.

Read the full article in ThePrint

Pledges at Glasgow could change the Global Distribution of Power

This article was originally published in The Mint, as part of Nitin Pai's fortnightly column, The Intersection. India was perhaps the only big country at the Glasgow CoP-26 meeting whose commitments were entirely driven by environmental considerations, and which came at a substantial cost to its medium-term economic prospects. Other major players had upsides. The transition from fossil fuels to modern renewables, for instance, presents China with a massive economic opportunity, given its dominance in solar, battery and nuclear power. Europe can protect its domestic industries from foreign competition by imposing green standards and tariffs. Given its advanced research and development ecosystem, the US is sure to derive economic benefits from the emerging global market for green technology.While energy transition will certainly create opportunities for Indian firms and consumers, the challenge of raising the living standards of hundreds of millions of our people has become even more daunting. It is uncertain if high economic growth at the scale required to create the 20 million jobs we need every year is possible within the parameters of India’s carbon commitments.Moreover, it is hard not to be sceptical about rich countries’ promises to ease the decades of pain and sacrifice the rest of the world has to bear. The righteousness of the West’s most ardent climate advocates must be seen against their abject failure to make covid vaccines available to billions of people in need of them today. The pandemic, like climate, is an indivisible collective threat to humankind. So countries, societies and leaders who are effectively refusing to come to the aid of billions of real people in this generation can hardly be relied upon to help future generations. Talk of $1 trillion in green financing and assistance from rich countries must be taken with liberal pinches of organic salt, given that we are still waiting for them to part with the $100 billion per year they promised at Paris six years ago.New Delhi can neither rely on the rich countries keeping to their emission commitments nor on receiving compensation for sacrificing growth. Financial Times columnist Megan Greene warns that, “There are inevitable short-term economic costs that risk generating a backlash against efforts to fight climate change." Rapid decarbonization is likely to cause a supply shock, raise prices and raise public debt. It will create winners and losers, and the latter could push back, as they have done against globalization. Yet, the pain that rich country populations will suffer is a trifle in comparison to that in the developing world, where well-known growth paths are to be abandoned and unknown, risky routes embraced. Lacking power in the international system, governments of developing countries will be compelled to require sacrifices from people too weak to mount backlashes.This is only partially a story of the hypocrisy and self-serving righteousness of powerful countries. If agreements like Paris’s and Glasgow’s are inadequate and unreliable, it is because the political structure of the world is not optimized to formulate solutions for humankind as a whole. Most of the 200-odd independent nation-states that exist today do so on the basis of national self-determination, the idea that people who share a lot of things in common and have their own homeland have the right to govern themselves. Whether or not people are better off under this dispensation is debatable. We have seen nation-states trample on the liberties of minorities and individuals. Their international conduct wilfully threatens the very existence of humanity. Addressing common global challenges was not even part of the design specifications of nation-states, which is why a collective front against a virus or a holistic approach to tackling climate change is touch-and-go at best.Our failure to adopt coherent global approaches to a growing number of important issues, such as international terrorism, public health, environment, weapons of mass destruction, transnational technology platforms and cyberspace governance, is in large part due to political structures. The best we can do under the current international system is to evolve a stable balance of power that creates an global order that permits global solutions for global problems. This long chain of hope, tenuous at best, is broken in many places. Xi Jinping’s absence at Glasgow indicates that no serious effort is on to try fixing this.As unprecedented are the risks to human survival and prosperity today, so are the opportunities for overcoming them. But we need to rethink political structures. Within countries, mechanisms of representative democracy and bureaucratic administration need overhauling. Across countries, there is a case for large, thin continental federations like the Indian republic and European Union. And what do we do with the United Nations?Let us hope that CoP-26 will achieve its goal of reducing carbon emissions. But in doing so, it will exacerbate other geopolitical and economic problems. Imagine a world where some other country replaces the Gulf as the global hub of energy. Fuel we will get from the sun and the air. But the supply of technology and raw materials to convert it to electricity may be dominated by China. Such a world is a decade away and will arrive well before we update our political structures. So, in whose image will the 21st century be constructed?