Dealing with adverse impact of COVID-19 on India's Military planning

Author: Lt Gen (Dr) Prakash Menon, PVSM, AVSM, VSM (Retd)India’s military planning will be severely challenged by the inevitable and adverse economic impact of COVID 19. It also exacerbates the long term and unresolved problem of competing demands for military modernisation being overwhelmed by inadequacies of financial resources. The silver lining in the situation is the recent creation of the CDS and the Department of Military Affairs (DMA). This is so because there is now greater institutional singularity in the form of the CDS being both a head of department in the MoD and the Permanent Chairman Chiefs of Staff Committee (PC-COSC).Continue reading the article here.

Why WHO Must be Partly ‘Blamed’ For Coronavirus Global Pandemic

The World Health Organisation (WHO), founded to reduce health risks for all, is facing international criticism for its handling of the COVID-19 outbreak. WHO’s Director-General (DG), Dr Tedros Adhanom Ghebreyesus, has been accused of forwarding China’s interest rather than ensuring the containment of the virus through awareness procedures.WHO’s assessment, finally characterised COVID-19 as a pandemic on 11 March 2020, almost three months after its outbreak in Wuhan, China.

By then, there were already 118,332 confirmed cases globally with 4, 292 deaths. Coronavirus had already impacted people across 113 countries when the WHO declared it as a pandemic.

The article was originally published in The Quint.

Is India’s Rising Defence Pension Bill Affecting Modernisation of Military? 5 Myths Busted

Business, as usual, is no longer an option. India must tackle the rising defence pension bill.

Lt Gen Prakash Menon and Pranay Kotasthane bust five myths of the defence pensions debate. Read the full article on ThePrint here.

India’s Approach to the Indian Ocean Region: From Sea Control to Sea Denial

Given the budget constraints, the Indian Navy’s approach should change from sea control to sea denial

India’s Chief of Defence Staff General Bipin Rawat announced last month that India will prioritise submarines over its third aircraft carrier. The importance of this announcement was lost amid the clutter surrounding U.S. President Donald Trump’s visit to India. “When we know that there would be two aircraft carriers there, and if the submarine force is dwindling, then our priority should be for submarines,” said General Rawat. It is a notable statement coming from the CDS himself, possibly hinting at the much-needed change of approach from sea control to sea denial towards the Indian Ocean Region (IOR).The article was originally published on The Diplomat.

NPT turns 50. The first half it lived a lie, the second half it saw its own demise

One way forward is to move away from prohibiting possession to discouraging their use. At Takshashila, we have advocated a Global No First Use (GNFU) treaty that can help reduce the risk of an accidental nuclear war. This will create the foundation for nuclear weapons states to lower nuclear alertness levels, reduce the sizes of the arsenals and change their posture. What about disarmament? Now, I do not think complete disarmament is feasible — and some such as nuclear strategy theorist Thomas C. Schelling have argued that it’s not desirable either — but it is perhaps a worthwhile goal to pursue in the long run. For the time being though, we can buy another day, month, year, and decade of human survival by committing not to use nuclear weapons first, and then, at all.Read more

US-तालिबान समझौते से शांति की कितनी उम्मीद और भारत की चिंताएं?

अमेरिका और तालिबान के बीच शनिवार, 29 फरवरी, को कतर में शांति समझौते पर हस्ताक्षर हुए। इसके मुताबिक, अमेरिका 14 महीने में अफगानिस्तान से अपने सैनिक हटाएगा। इससे हो सकता है कि अमेरिका का सबसे लम्बा युद्ध शायद ख़त्म हो जाए. इस वक़्त अफ़ग़निस्तान में अमेरिका, जर्मनी और ब्रिटेन समेत 38 देशों की सेनाएं हैं. अब इन में से अमेरिका की 8000 से ज़्यादा सैनिक है जिन्हे इस पैक्ट के मुताबिक़ अब अपना बोरिया बिस्तर उठा कर वापस अपने घर जाना होगा.

इस पैक्ट की दूसरी ख़ास बात है 'तालिबान कमिटमेंट' - ये कमिटमेंट कहता है कि 'तालिबान अपने किसी भी सदस्य, या किसी दूसरे व्यक्ति या संगठन को, जिनमें अल-क़ायदा भी है, को अमेरिका और उसके सहयोगियों की सुरक्षा के लिए खतरा नहीं बनने देगा, और इस के लिए अफ़ग़निस्तान की ज़मीन का इस्तेमाल नहीं करने देगा.

लेकिन क्या वाकई इस समझौते से शांति की उम्मीद की जा सकती है? और इस समझौते का भारत के लिए क्या मतलब है?

Listen in to this episode of The Big Story Hindi Podcast by The Quint featuring Pranay Kotasthane.

https://audioboom.com/posts/7519553

Trump’s India visit tightens defense ties

Donald Trump concluded his 36-hour India tour on Tuesday evening. This was his first visit to India since being elected the 45th president of the United States in November 2016. His tour to India was much anticipated by both the countries, which have a common strategic objective of balancing China’s rise.This objective was reflected immediately in Trump’s first speech after landing in India, where he took a jab at China’s undemocratic rise. India’s rise “is all the more inspiring because you have done it as a democratic country, you have done it as a peaceful country, you have done it as a tolerant country, and you have done it as a great free country,” he said in his speech at Motera Stadium in Ahmedabad, Gujarat.The article was originally published in Asia Times.

On US President Trump's India Visit

The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the US President's upcoming India visit: Will the spectacle of Trump's visit without a trade deal boost India-US ties?The US-India relationship over the last four years has been a case of one step forward, two steps backward. The convergence of the threat posed by China has led to a deepening of military ties between the countries with the operationalisation of the Logistics Exchange Memorandum of Agreement (LEMOA) and the signing of the Communications Compatibility and Security Agreement (COMCASA).At the same time, both the US and India have been unable to move forward on the issue of trade. While the Donald Trump administration has hung on to notions of ‘reciprocity’, the Narendra Modi government has raised import tariffs and pushed itself into a corner. Trump’s position on Pakistan has also changed; the plan to reduce and eventually withdraw US troops from Afghanistan is contingent on an understanding with Pakistan. Finally, India’s falling economic growth trajectory has restricted our ability to negotiate both with the US and China.Trump’s visit is unlikely to change any of these structural factors. Apart from a few defence purchase agreements, there is little to look forward to the US president’s tour.Read the entire discussion on ThePrint. here.

Growing Defence Pensions a Problem. But CDS Rawat’s Retirement Age Proposal not the Solution.

We propose a model to operationalise lateral induction in the Indian armed forces to tackle the burden of growing pensions. Read the full article in The Print here.

Wuhan and the Need for Improved Global Biosecurity

The Wuhan coronavirus, or nCoV-2019, is likely to become a pandemic in the coming weeks, having already infected at least 17,000 and killed some 400. The World Health Organisation has belatedly declared a public health emergency, while at least 45 million Chinese citizens remain under lockdown. Despite botching up the initial response in Wuhan, authorities in China have since been fast to share information on the outbreak and have even invited overseas experts for help. A draft sequence of the genome has also been published online and scientists from across the world have shared their analysis. Despite wild speculation about the origins of the Wuhan virus there’s absolutely no evidence it is anything other than a naturally mutated pathogen – indeed, it would make no sense for a state to produce a bioweapon that has both high communicability and low lethality.However, future threats to global health will come not only from natural viruses like nCoV-2019 but also from man-made pathogens. Mechanisms that aid early detection and encourage transparency need to be institutionalised quickly as a combination of breakthrough technologies and human malice raise the threat from bioweapons. Major states like China and India are well-positioned to champion this institutionalisation given their high vulnerability to bioweapons attacks and their shared desire to shape global institutions. (Read more)

When WHO understates coronavirus risk, you know China’s geopolitics is at play

There is something a little puzzling about the international response to the Wuhan novel coronavirus – nCoV-2019 – outbreak: the actions taken by the United States, Singapore, Australia, New Zealand, Russia, and other countries exceed what the World Health Organisation has recommended. Is the WHO underplaying the risks of a global epidemic or are these countries over-reacting?

The WHO has declared the Wuhan coronavirus outbreak a Public Health Emergency of International Concern (PHEIC), which under International Health Regulations is “an extraordinary event which is determined to constitute a public health risk to other States through the international spread of disease and to potentially require a coordinated international response”. It implies that there is a risk of trans-border spread of a disease necessitating international coordination. Such a declaration obliges all countries to take appropriate countermeasures and share outbreak-related information with the WHO on a regular basis.

Read more

Dealing With Huawei: Think Strategy, Not Just Security

India’s position on the Huawei question should be closer to that of the US and Japan (a ban from 5G critical infrastructure) rather than that of Kenya or the Netherlands (a conditional yes to Huawei). That’s because China is, after all, India’s adversary and its biggest strategic challenge. Given this situation, handing over critical communications infrastructure to companies closely connected with the Chinese party-state does not make any strategic sense.Even if Huawei is serious about commitment to mitigate security concerns, bestowing an adversary with geopolitical leverage is a poor strategy. Just like India is unlikely to give control of its major ports infrastructure to any Chinese company, our critical communications infrastructure also needs to be guarded.From the economic angle, it’s probably true that banning Huawei and ZTE will result in some economic costs to India and Indians. To reduce this impact, India can consider a two-fold strategy. When it comes to critical network infrastructure, Chinese companies could be banned. On the other hand, India could welcome Huawei/ZTE 5G mobile phones with open arms because cheap 5G phones will benefit crores of Indians.What needs to be internalised is that the question of 5G network infrastructure is too important an issue to be left to a DoT decision alone. It requires a holistic assessment of security, economic, and strategic concerns and must be taken by the cabinet committee on security. In our view, strategic concerns far outweigh the economic benefits and security fears.Read the full article on The Telegraph here.(Image source: Christoph Scholz on Flickr)

PLA SSF: Why China will be ahead of everyone in future cyber, space or information warfare

People’s Liberation Army Strategic Support Force contingent made its debut appearance at China’s military day parade, earlier this year. Formed on this day in 2015, it is mandated to create synergies between China’s space, cyber and electronic warfare. The PLA considers these three domains critical for “commanding strategic heights.” The SSF was formed to optimise China’s dominance in these three domains and also contribute to enhancing the PLA’s broader goals of strategic deterrence and integration for information warfare. Read more...

Citizenship Law and NRC Issue can Strain India’s Ties With its Most Important Neighbour — Bangladesh

The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the foreign policy implications of the Citizenship Amendment Bill and the National Register of Indian Citizens: CAB, NRC, Kashmir: Is Modi govt damaging India’s diplomatic standing for domestic politics? ‘Neighbourhood first’ was supposed to be the guiding principle of Modi government’s foreign policy. But all three measures — the new citizenship law, NRC and Kashmir issue — are examples of policy actions that are likely to have adverse outcomes for India’s interests in the region.The amended citizenship law and the NRC issue will put strains on India’s relations with its most important neighbour in the Indian subcontinent — Bangladesh. In 2018, Bangladesh emerged as India’s largest export market for Indian-made two-wheelers. Bangladesh has also surpassed Pakistan in terms of GDP per capita. The 2011 census data shows that illegal migration from there is reducing — it a stock problem from the past and not a flow problem of the present. Most importantly, the Sheikh Hasina government is one of the few steadfast pro-India formations in the neighbourhood. Unfortunately, the signal being sent to other leaders in the region is that taking pro-India positions might turn out to be a loss-making proposition.In the case of Kashmir, Pakistan will try to use the Article 370 issue to drive a wedge between the US and India. From Pakistan’s standpoint, returning to the India-Pakistan hyphenation era in the eyes of the US is desirable. From India’s viewpoint, the more Pakistan features in India’s foreign policy outlook, the less energy it has for confronting the more significant global challenges.Read the entire discussion on ThePrint.in website here. 

How India can build its own SpaceX

While the Indian Space Research Organisation is doing a commendable job, the participation of private space companies from India, at the global stage is still very limited. India must adopt an enabling policy framework and incorporate independent & fair institutional design mechanisms to promote NewSpace startups in the country. Establishment of independent space regulatory authority, disputes settlement appellate tribunal and a commercial entity to carry out operations built on legacy ISRO technology are essential.For more, please read here.

4 Lessons for India From China’s October 2019 Military Parade

With the People’s Republic of China (PRC) marking its 70th founding anniversary on October 1, the grand military parade at Tiananmen Square was the highlight of the celebrations. It showcased China’s newer arms, ammunition, and technology. Over 15,000 personnel, 160 aircraft, and 580 pieces of military equipment participated in the military parade, including sophisticated weaponry such as hypersonic missiles, intercontinental-range land and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, stealth combat and high-speed reconnaissance drones, and fifth-generation fighter jets.China intended to address both domestic and international audiences through this parade. At home, the leadership hoped that the parade would stir up feelings of nationalism. Internationally, the display of force was intended as a warning to the United States and China’s neighbors. Further, the parade reflected the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) progress toward becoming a “world-class military” by 2050.Although policymakers and military leaders across the world were keeping a close eye on China’s military display, perhaps those in India should have been paying the most attention. The parade was not directed at India, but New Delhi can learn a lot from China’s use of military modernization and its ongoing defense reforms. Here are four key lessons New Delhi can take from China’s 2019 military parade. Read more...

Subcontinent is not ‘India’s own backyard’. Neighbours will continue to pursue foreign policies independently

The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the new Sri Lankan President Gotabaya Rajapaksa's India visit: With strong leaders like Rajapaksa, Hasina, Oli, is India losing dominance in South Asia?My response:Strong leaders or not, these sovereign South Asian states will continue to pursue their independent foreign policies based on their strategic priorities. The subcontinent is not ‘India’s own backyard’. There’s no need to judge every political change in these countries based on how it will affect India’s ‘dominance’ in South Asia.Structurally, it is natural for these states to play India off against the other powerful economy, China. In fact, smaller states across the world tend to balance their relationships with bigger powers.As long as these states are mindful of India’s security concerns and economic well-being, India shouldn’t be overly concerned with China’s presence. Given China’s overbearing foreign policy approach, it is likely to establish itself as a primary object of hate among India’s South Asian neighbours soon. India must instead do enough to be the second-best option for every smaller nation.From the perspective of these states, both India and China have their comparative advantages. China has more economic wherewithal whereas geographical proximity makes India irreplaceable for them.Therefore, the emergence of strong leaders in Sri Lanka, Bangladesh and Nepal should not be seen as a zero-sum game in India.Read the entire discussion on ThePrint.in website here.   

How to respond to an 'intelligent' PLA

Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies over the next decade will have a profound impact on the nature of warfare. Increasing use of precision weapons, training simulations and unmanned vehicles are merely the tip of the iceberg. AI technologies, going forward, will not only have a direct battlefield impact in terms of weapons and equipment but will also impact planning, logistics and decision-making, requiring new ethical and doctrinal thinking. From an Indian perspective, China’s strategic focus on leveraging AI has serious national security implications.Read the full article on the Deccan Herald website.

The nuclear cloud hanging over the human race

India and China are the only nuclear powers which adhere to a No First Use policy, based on the rationale that the only role of nuclear weapons is to deter their own kind. With overwhelming evidence now available regarding nuclear explosions and climate change, it is time that India and China jointly take the lead for a Global No First Use (GNFU) Treaty and retard the dangers that stem from expanding geopolitical tensions between nuclear powers.Continue to read this article here.

The opinion of Western liberals or conservatives is inconsequential for the J&K situation at this point

The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the unofficial trip of twenty-seven European Union MPs to Jammu and Kashmir: Modi govt allows mostly far-Right EU MPs to J&K: Smart diplomacy to counter Western liberals?The Indian government has lost the plot if this unofficial trip is being held to ‘counter Western liberals’. The opinion of Western liberals or conservatives is inconsequential for the situation in J&K at this point.The fact remains that the situation there is not normal. It is in a volatile security situation abetted by Pakistan, exacerbated by the absence of legitimate political channels, prolonged restrictions on communications, a weak economic infrastructure, and an inadequate administrative capacity. The real challenge before the government then is to manage this security situation while rebooting the economic and political mechanisms quickly. Even a favourable report by this MEP delegation will have zero impact on solving this challenge. In fact, it will lead to rounds of trips and counter-trips, needless distractions given the delicate and tense situation on the ground.Even from a moral standpoint, this visit is problematic as Indian politicians have been disallowed from visiting the valley. Several local politicians still remain under detention.Hence, the visit is unlikely to change perception domestically or internationally. Moreover, it goes against the long-held Indian position that political developments in J&K are an internal matter of the Republic of India.Read the entire discussion on ThePrint.in website here.