Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
Grand events, small gains
Despite holding two grand events in the last month, India has not gained anything significant on the diplomatic front. Neither ‘Howdy Modi’ in Houston nor Modi-Xi summit in Mamallapuram resulted in resolving outstanding issues in the bilateral relationships with the United States (US) and China... Therefore, what exactly did these two grand events achieve? Who was the real audience for both these events?Read the full article here.
Modi-Xi Summit: Don't expect a major breakthrough
While India and China will hold the second informal summit between Prime Minister Narendra Modi and President Xi Jinping today and tomorrow, events over the past few weeks have dampened the prospects of forward movement on the boundary dispute. The first informal summit between Xi and Modi in Wuhan in 2018 had provided a tentative new template for first stabilising and then advancing the bilateral relationship, which had come under increasing strain.Read the full article in Deccan Herald here
Reimagining Safety In A World With Nuclear Weapons
Prakash Menon talks about two very important and urgent matters and how they actually go hand in hand. Nuclear warfare and climate change. In this talk, you learn how we will find ourselves in the middle of a nuclear apocalypse if we don't implement change now.This talk was given at a TEDx event using the TED conference format but independently organized by a local community.Watch the video here
The hot risks of ‘Cold Start’
India’s controversial military doctrine is of limited use in a clash with Pakistan and should stay cold and underplayed.India’s military should privilege development of a military capability that allows for causing destruction without posturing. Long-range firepower from air, land and sea platforms provide more promise for retribution under the nuclear shadow than IBGs that, at best, could threaten and may mostly even flatter to deceive. Capabilities that support force application in ‘Other than War’ forms would act as a better deterrence.Read more
Donald Trump Endorsement: India's Calculated Move
Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s indirect endorsement of President Donald Trump for the White House is a calculated risk. India’s gains from the US in the next few months would determine the merit of this endorsement. But an unapologetic India doesn’t care about its grand old foreign policy’s dogmatic values and principles.Read More...
On the Howdy Modi event
The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the Indian PM’s Howdy Modi event in Houston: Is it smart diplomacy for PM Modi to align himself with Donald Trump’s campaign in Houston?Whether Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s endorsement of US President Donald Trump at the ‘Howdy, Modi’ event should be termed smart diplomacy depends on its real impact on the future of India-US relations. The event by itself carries immense symbolic value, and the world will take note of how far India-US relations have come. This is a positive outcome. However, an Indian Prime Minister taking an overt partisan position on US domestic politics will have negative consequences.First, this sets a precedent for any foreign leader to take sides in Indian elections or its politics. This could ultimately make it tough for India to manage its relations with other countries. Second, the Indian-American community faces the risk of being seen as more Indian and less American. Opponents of Donald Trump might even play up this line of thinking to reap political dividends in the 2020 US presidential elections. So, the costs involved are real.The backlash against China’s attempts to influence Australia’s domestic politics showed that once nationalist political sentiments take precedence in the host country, immigrant communities face the risk of being isolated and targeted.Read the entire discussion on ThePrint.in website here.
The Case Against Weakening India's No First Use Policy
Last month defence minister Rajnath Singh chose Pokhran – the site of India’s nuclear tests – to suggest that the future of the country’s nuclear no first use policy would depend on changing “circumstances”. Singh’s surprise statement was apparently aimed at Pakistan after tensions escalated following the Indian government’s decision to bifurcate the state of Jammu and Kashmir into two union territories.The statement also comes amid dissatisfaction with the no first use policy, with one critic calling it a “formula for disaster”. Opponents cite Pakistan’s battlefield nuclear weapons, which they believe offer a shield for Pakistan-based terrorism. The way out, according to this logic, would be for India to threaten pre-emptive nuclear strikes on Pakistan’s arsenal.Read More
Honey traps, deepfakes, AI: Why India’s RAW needs to prepare for threats beyond terrorism
In the context of India, honey-trappers usually try to extract information or spread fake news. There is still evidence of the adversary breaking into the top-level. That, however, is no reason for India’s intelligence community to not break out of the status quo. If anything is to be learnt from the 26/11 experience, intelligence agencies must stay ahead of the curve, adapt to these rapid shifts and not jeopardise the nation’s first line of defence.Read more
Howdy Modi and Trump showcase Indian lobby in US. But double loyalties can’t go far
Trump’s presence at Howdy Modi certainly highlights the strength and the comfort of the India-US relationship. The event’s organisers claim that it is the largest-ever turnout for a foreign elected leader on US soil. Apparently, only the Pope attracted a bigger crowd. In the amoral world of international relations, it is par for the course for states to influence the politics and policies of other countries. A lot depends on how the prevalent nationalist “America First” political sentiment in the United States perceives the Howdy Modi rally.Read more
China’s headache: Taiwan and not Tibet or Xinjiang
China’s defence white paper 2019 reiterates the importance of Xinjiang, Tibet, and Taiwan for China. The white paper highlights China’s concerns about Taiwan. But it implies a certain lessening of its worries on Xinjiang and Tibet compared to the past.Read more...
Neither is Russia a reliable friend nor is US a fickle one. Nation-states have semi-permanent interests.
The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the Indian PM's France visit: Modi-Macron embrace: Does India have permanent friends or is every alliance strategic?My response:There are no friends, let alone permanent friends when it comes to international relations. Anthropomorphism in international conduct can lead us to incorrect assumptions and solutions. So, Russia is neither a reliable friend of India nor is the United States a fickle one. However, what can be said is that nation-states do have semi-permanent interests.It is in India’s interest to have a better relationship with France for two reasons. First, it ensures that the European Union’s policy towards India remains favourable. It is far more advantageous to deal with individual European states than with the European Union. Second, strategic engagement with France — inclusive of defence purchases — is a way to secure its support for Indian positions at the United Nations Security Council.Going ahead, diversification of the trade relationship with a key defence supplier like France is critical for India. A diverse partnership provides levers to hedge against changing geopolitical equations. Maritime co-operation, the International Solar Alliance, and nuclear energy trade illustrate this overlap of French and Indian interests.Read the entire discussion here.
On Trump's Kashmir comment
ThePrint's daily roundtable Talkpoint posed a question related to PM Modi's conversation with US President Trump on the latter's offer to mediate on the Kashmir issue. The question was: Is PM Modi allowing Trump to play policeman in India-Pakistan tensions over Kashmir?My response:Policeman is an incorrect metaphor to use. The act of policing involves ensuring compliance with an underlying rule of law. No such enforceable force of law exists in the domain of international relations. Instead, power is the currency in international relations. It is precisely for this reason that Trump’s stance and actions on India-Pakistan tensions are important following the Narendra Modi government’s move to abrogate Article 370.The real issue then is how the Modi government can deal with a powerful stakeholder like Trump now. While India needs the US in order to increase its own economic and military power, the US-China structural rivalry makes India a very important player in the US strategic calculation. Pakistan doesn’t feature in any of these forces driving the India-US equation.For its part, Pakistan will try to use the Kashmir issue to drive a wedge between the US and India. From Pakistan’s standpoint, returning to the India-Pakistan hyphenation era in the eyes of the US is desirable. And given Pakistan’s role in the ongoing talks between the US and the Taliban, Pakistan’s case is likely to carry more weight than it otherwise would. India’s challenge will be to continue isolating the US-India relationship from the ongoing India-Pakistan dynamic. This task will become more challenging if the security situation in Kashmir worsens.Read other views on ThePrint here.
India’s No First Use is badass enough. Modi govt needn’t change it to be more muscular
A day after India’s 73rd Independence Day, the Narendra Modi government threatened Pakistan with the possibility of a nuclear attack if it scales up cross-border terrorism and militancy against India. The Modi government appears to have calculated that the fear of an Indian nuclear strike will raise Pakistan’s costs of cross-border terrorism, thus deterring its use. The biggest problem with this bold new approach is that it will work only to the extent that the Pakistanis believe India’s threats are credible.Read more
Kashmir Decision Could be Distracting India From Its National Security Priorities
The recent Indian political manoeuvre involved deeper integration of Jammu and Kashmir by watering down Articles 370 and 35A of the Indian constitution as also the strengthening of the control by the Centre through the change of the statehood status of Jammu and Kashmir and its simultaneous bifurcation into the Union Territories of Jammu and Kashmir and Ladakh. An elected assembly, on the lines of the existing arrangement for the Union Territory of Delhi, is envisaged only for Jammu and Kashmir.Read more
Why Xi won’t be sending the PLA to quell Hong Kong protests
The eleven-week-long protest movement in Hong Kong has reached a critical phase. Earlier this week, thousands of protesters converged on the city’s airport, paralysing operations and disrupting nearly 1,000 flights. The airport was finally cleared on Thursday after clashes between riot police and the protesters. The scenes of chaos played out as the top leadership of the Communist Party of China met for its annual conclave at the beachside town of Beidaihe.The situation in Hong Kong undoubtedly must have been on top of the agenda. The protests, which initially focussed on an extradition bill put forward by the city’s government, have now evolved into a larger battle for autonomy from Beijing’s tightening grip. In the process, peaceful demonstrations have given way to anger and violence.These turns of events indicate an increasing sense of unease that Beijing is now seriously contemplating the use of force. This, of course, remains a possibility. The Basic Law of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region empowers local authorities to request Beijing for such assistance. The PLA, in fact, already has troops stationed at a garrison in Hong Kong. However, given the current scenario, it is highly unlikely that Xi will deploy the armed forces to quell the protests.Read the full article published in The Hindu
Finance Commission's New Problem: A Separate Defence Fund
The original terms of references for the FFC themselves were contentious. Based on the wrong assumption that the last Finance Commission was overly generous towards the states, the terms were designed to nudge the FFC towards reducing the tax devolution to the states in order to meet the requirements of central schemes of the Union government. If that wasn’t enough, an additional term of reference has now been recommended by the Union cabinet tasking the FFC “to ensure an assured allocation of resources towards defence and internal security imperatives.”Allocating adequate, secure, and non-lapsable funds for the security of India is indeed an urgent priority. There can be no quarrel about that objective. But the move to provide for these funds through the FFC is problematic for several important reasons.Read the full article on Deccan Herald here.
Article 370 and the rough ride ahead
The analogy of a hornet’s nest fits here. A nest in our backyard is a nuisance and an occasional sting is a minor inconvenience compared to what could be in store now that we have stirred the proverbial nest. Should we batten down the hatches in anticipation of the worst or is there another way?Read more
China's syndromes in India's ocean
Bertil Lintner’s book The Costliest Pearl is perhaps the most comprehensive account of the contemporary geopolitics of the maritime Eastern Hemisphere. It covers the ground from Djibouti to Vanuatu and the water from the South China Sea to the Southern Indian Ocean.And although it covers the actions and reactions of the powers from within and without the region, it is China that lies at the heart of the plot.Read more
Explaining the Takshashila National Security Doctrine
Download the doctrine here.In the 21st century, India faces challenges of unprecedented scale and complexity that necessitate new ways of thinking about national security. We propose that yogakshema, an idea pioneered in the Arthashastra , should be the guiding light of India’s national security doctrine. Simply put, the State must provide security, kshema, and economic opportunities, yoga, to all its citizens. In June 2019, we proposed a doctrine to achieve this.1. To create and defend a conducive environment for yogakshema (well-being, prosperity, and happiness) of all Indians. At this stage of India’s development, national security is primarily focused on protecting and promoting India’s economic development.2. National security also includes protecting the constitutional order, individual liberty, territory, social cohesion, and national resources.3. Amass and project power across all domains.4. Reimagine national security capacity.This document aims to elaborate on these points and elucidate the strategic reasoning behind them. In the first section of this document, we address the question of how a national security doctrine can provide opportunities for prosperity. India has a special place in the global order thanks to its large, young population and its critical geopolitical position. Its status as a swing power should be leveraged to shape global debates in ways that benefit its citizens. This is a matter of critical national interest: India’s economy is deeply connected to the world, and citizens’ prosperity depends on them being able to import and export goods and services on favourable terms.The rest of the document addresses questions of kshema. Within India’s borders, the State must ensure that the rule of law is implemented within the bounds laid out by the Constitution. The Republic of India’s institutions must be kept effective and efficient. And citizens’ rights - no matter their caste, class, gender, or creed - must be defended.Beyond India’s borders, in an anarchic, multipolar world, we argue that India must amass and project power across all domains, so it can defend its citizens’ interests in all domains. This means thinking about India’s “territory” in new ways - it’s no longer just about land, but about maritime domains, air, space, and cyberspace. It also means that India needs to think about power as something the State can leverage in many ways in the global order. India needs to use all the means at its disposal to shape the world’s diplomatic, economic, and technological order. In summary, the overriding imperative of a national security doctrine is to provide yogakshema.
What does China’s new defence strategy mean?
China on Wednesday published its first defence white paper in four years, outlining the strategic military guideline for what it terms as a new era. The document offers an insight into Beijing’s view of the changes in the international security situation. It discusses China’s defence policy objectives, along with the reform, missions and tasks that its armed forces are undertaking. Further, it elaborates on the role of the armed forces in the broader Chinese geopolitical objective of establishing a community with a shared future for mankind. Here are five key takeaways from the white paper. The line taken by the document indicates a generally positive outlook towards India. Nevertheless, there are certain potential points of impact to be noted from the perspective of Indian interests.Shifting Balance of PowerThe white paper begins with an assessment of the changes in the international security environment. It argues that the world is increasingly heading towards multipolarity. But, it isn't yet a “tranquil place,” with strategic competition on the rise. Beijing’s diagnosis is that “the configuration of strategic power is becoming more balanced,” with the strength of emerging markets and developing countries growing. The big threat to this is the change in American policy, i.e., “growing hegemonism, power politics, unilateralism”.This necessitates a reinforcement of the UN’s role in global security, strengthening new regional security arrangements, establishing security partnerships (with Russia, for instance), investments in better weapons and technological upgrades and bolstering arms control and non-proliferation regimes. For New Delhi, which has been working on getting Beijing to yield on its admission to the Nuclear Suppliers Group, the white paper’s assessment of the international non-proliferation regime as “compromised by pragmatism and double standards” is likely to be troubling.The Asia-Pacific ContestThe document observes that while the Asia-Pacific region is “generally stable”, there is increased “major country competition”. Essentially, it perceives the dynamics in the region within the framework of U.S.-China. frictions. The U.S., it argues, “is strengthening its Asia-Pacific military alliances and reinforcing military deployment and intervention”. The key partners for Washington that it identifies are South Korea, Japan and Australia. Despite that, the document largely assesses Chinese neighbourhood policy as having been successful.“Asia-Pacific countries are increasingly aware that they are members of a community with shared destiny”, it reads, hinting at the rapid emergence of a China-led security architecture. The constituents of this Sinosphere are structures like the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation, CICA, China’s expanding dominance in the South China Sea, dialogues with ASEAN members, regional counter-terror action and increasing bilateral military-to-military diplomacy. Interestingly, China views South Asia also as “generally stable,” although “conflicts between India and Pakistan flare up from time to time.” This suggests that Beijing is rather confident about its ability to manage tensions between New Delhi and Islamabad.BRI's Military ComponentEver since Xi Jinping launched, in 2013, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI), there has been much debate about the security implications of Chinese investments around the world. The white paper tells us that protecting China’s overseas interests is a strategic objective for the People’s Liberation Army (PLA). It states that “one of the missions of China’s armed forces is to effectively protect the security and legitimate rights and interests of overseas Chinese people, organisations and institutions”. In order to do so, the document says that the PLA is building “far seas forces”, “overseas logistical facilities”, and capabilities for “diversified military tasks”. That’s followed by a glowing evaluation of the PLA’s Logistics Support Base in Djibouti, which was set up in 2017. This is perhaps the clearest admission of the emerging military component of the BRI. But that’s not all. Beijing is also likely to continue to invest in and focus on participation in Humanitarian and Disaster Relief operations internationally. This is couched within the rhetoric of providing international public goods. But such activities allow for the enhancement of Chinese forces’ operational skills and experience and normalises their presence in far-flung regions of the world.Resilient ChinaThe 2015 Chinese defence white paper had argued that “China faces a formidable task to maintain political security and social stability” while discussing Taiwan, Xinjiang and Tibet. In 2019, there’s a mention of “external separatist forces” with regard to Tibet and Xinjiang. But the forces seeking Taiwan’s “independence” are identified as the “gravest immediate threat”, with the use of force not being ruled out. Despite that, generally, the domestic security environment is assessed to have improved considerably. “China continues to enjoy political stability, ethnic unity and social stability. There has been a notable increase in China’s overall national strength, global influence, and resilience to risks,” the white paper says. However, it is also worth noting that “safeguarding national political security” and political work in the armed forces to uphold Xi Jinping’s status as the core of the Party-state system remain priorities.Quality and Efficiency