Approaches to Indo-Pacific: India and US

The US Department of Defence (DOD) released its first-ever Indo-Pacific Strategy Report (IPSR) in the first week of June. The report outlines Washington’s approach in dealing with various stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific region. It identifies China as one of the most important challenges to the US, noting that great-power competition has returned and threatens the stability of the Indo-Pacific region. The report emphasises the need for alliances and partnerships to maintain peace and security in this region.The IPSR identifies India as an important partner of the US. It takes a cue from a speech in 2017 by Rex Tillerson, then the US secretary of state, in which he identified India’s role in the United States’ vision of a “free and open Indo-Pacific” (FOIP). India too believes in the principles of FOIP. There are a few parallels between the two countries’ visions for the Indo-Pacific region.The article was originally published in Asia Times

India must make Intelligence Bureau responsible for countering terrorism, not RAW

India’s counter-terrorism efforts have improved significantly since 2008, but the dynamic nature of the threat requires streamlining of intelligence and law enforcement operations. As the lead internal intelligence agency, the IB should be the nodal agency for counter-terrorism initiatives and intelligence sharing.Read more

Need to Protect Soldiers from False FIRs

At the heart of the matter is the urgent necessity of protecting the soldiers from harassment to which they are subjected from the prolonged investigative procedures that ensue. The investigative process itself, for a soldier acting in good faith and in accordance with the orders of his superiors, is a form of punishment that could also entail financial costs through legal fees, disruption of normal life, and deep psychological strain of the proverbial legal sword hanging over their heads.Read more

India’s Chandrayaan-2 matters, but don’t dream about moon picnics with friends just as yet

The prospect of permanent stations on the moon makes the Chandrayaan-2 mission of strategic interest. Although its launch has been postponed for now, when it eventually lands on the moon, India will have taken a substantial step towards extra-terrestrial settlement. “Settlement” might appear to be too strong a word to use for the initial stations that humans will set up on the moon, but they will put us on that path.Read more

SCO 2019: hits and misses for India

After winning re-election, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi chose the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO) for his first multilateral engagement. India has used the 2019 Bishkek summit to balance its approach between conflicting interests of the US and China. It stands to gain from the SCO’s peace process in Afghanistan, the decision to use local currencies for trade and the organization’s stand on terrorism.However, India missed out on energy and connectivity opportunities emanating from the SCO, along with a chance to break ice with Pakistan.The June 14-15 event was Modi’s third SCO summit. Having begun as the Shanghai Five in 1996, and renamed as the SCO in 2001, this organization has become a pivot to security and geopolitical issues of the Eurasian region. India’s participation in the organization is marked by its interest in energy and connectivity projects in Eurasia.

This article was originally published in Asia Times. Click to read the full article

How the world is dealing with China’s military modernisation drive

China’s military modernisation is advancing rapidly, requiring stakeholders in the Indo-Pacific region to adapt with the changing realities. China’s Defence minister Wei Fenghe made a speech on June 2 at the Shangri-La Dialogue forum in Singapore. Shangri-La Dialogue is one of the biggest track-one diplomacy security fora of Asia. Mr. Fenghe’s speech was monitored closely for three reasons. One, the Defence minister has not attended this forum since 2011. Two, his speech was a response to the statement made by Patrick Shanahan, the acting secretary of defence for the United States. Mr. Shanahan revealed details of the ‘new phase’ in the U.S. Indo-Pacific Strategy. Third and most importantly, the speech came a month after the Chinese military report published by the U.S. Department of Defense (DoD).The DOD report cautioned the U.S. Congress about the rapid modernisation of the Chinese armed forces. The report claims that the Chinese leadership aims to achieve informatisation of the People’s Liberation Army by 2020 and modernisation by 2035, with the broader goal of developing the PLA into a world-class force by 2050. The report gives considerable attention to the advancement of the PLA Navy (PLAN). There has been an evolution in the approach of the PLAN from ‘off-shore water defence’ to ‘open sea protection’ due to its increased military capabilities. The report says that China’s second aircraft carrier, Type 001 A, would likely be commissioned by the end of this year. This would be followed by the induction of another carrier, Type 002, in a short span of time.The Type 002 carrier is expected to be equipped with advanced launch capabilities in the form of an electromagnetic catapult. Currently, this technology is available only with the single aircraft carrier of the U.S. Navy, the USS Gerald R. Ford. The report also states that the PLAN currently operates four nuclear-powered ballistic missile–carrying submarines (SSBNs) and six nuclear-powered attack submarines (SSNs), predicting that this number would increase in the near future. The DOD report further cautions the U.S. Congress to expect the establishment of more overseas PLA bases, like the one in Djibouti, in the Indo-Pacific region in the near future.

What does this mean for regional stakeholders..

This article was originally published in the Hindu thread. Click to read the full article

Three changes that can be introduced in the performance review process in R&AW

There is an acute staff shortage in India’s RAW with about 40 per cent of the posts at the level of joint secretaries, directors and deputy secretaries lying vacant. And then, it became worse nearly six months ago when more than 70 senior and mid-level RAW officials were marked for compulsory retirement by the Narendra Modi government. Of these, four were holding the joint secretary rank, while the rest were of the level of deputy superintendent of police or other subordinate ranks.The whole episode calls into question the suitability of a colonial-era performance appraisal process called ACR (or Annual Confidential Report) for an intelligence-gathering organisation like the Research & Analysis Wing.Read more

Delhi must wake up and smell the opportunity

Deepening competition between the US and China over trade and technology is bringing forth a new set of economic and strategic challenges for India. Navigating these successfully requires New Delhi to mitigate and manage the threats, while leveraging the opportunities that arise. Doing so, however, requires the Indian government to undertake key reforms and adopt a strategic outlook with regard to certain domestic policies.A protracted Sino-US tech war could limit India’s room to maneuver, with the possibility that the global cyberspace and technology and innovation ecosystems could splinter into spheres of influence. This necessitates the adoption of a strategic outlook towards domestic policies.Read more at: https://www.deccanherald.com/specials/sunday-spotlight/delhi-must-wake-up-and-smell-the-opportunity-739059.html 

India's Focus Shift From SAARC to BIMSTEC Is Strategic, but Underused

While India has tactfully used the platform to diplomatically isolate Pakistan, it must also tap into BIMSTEC's immense potential for development, connectivity and trade in the region.

Leaders of the BIMSTEC countries attended Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s swearing-in ceremony last Thursday. This is an opportunity for India to leverage the grouping for better regional economic integration, rather than merely as a diplomatic tool to isolate Pakistan.BIMSTEC comprises India, Bangladesh, Bhutan, Myanmar, Nepal, Sri Lanka and Thailand. In other words, it is SAARC minus Pakistan and Afghanistan, plus Thailand and Myanmar. In 2014, Modi had invited leaders of the SAARC countries for his swearing-in ceremony.However, since then, tensions between India and Pakistan have led to New Delhi shifting focus from SAARC to BIMSTEC. Since its formation in 1997, we have only witnessed BIMSTEC coming to life during periods of tensions between India and Pakistan. During Modi’s first term, India began focusing on BIMSTEC after a series of terrorist attacks on Indian defence establishments in Uri and Pathankot.

This article was originally published in the Wire. Click to read the full article

Biological Weapons: The Impact of New Technologies

In June 2018, German police arrested a Tunisian man in Cologne for trying to build a biological weapon using the deadly toxin, ricin.1   In October 2018, researchers flagged a US agricultural program funded by DARPA (Defense Advanced Research Projects Agency) as a potential mask for a bioweapons project.2 At the same time, Russia also claimed that the US had tested biological weapons in Georgia killing over 70 people.3 Further, suspect packages were sent to select targets in the United States in October 2018;4 these packages in addition to being mail bombs also carried a white powder reprising concerns of the anthrax attacks from 2001 which led to the death of 5 people.There has been no incident of biological agents being used as a weapon of mass destruction in the recent past. Yet as the above examples show, there have been attempts to explore and create technologies that could be weaponised by both state and non-state actors. The threat was made apparent by James Clapper, US Director of National Intelligence, who added gene editing in their annual worldwide threat assessment report in 2016.5 Since then, there has been a wider recognition that the advances in technologies and improved access to science have lowered the barriers to creating designer bioweapons. [Read more]

Neighbourhood RWAs face greater scrutiny than political parties in democratic India

The manner in which the Supreme Court has handled the allegation of sexual harassment against Chief Justice of India Ranjan Gogoi is unedifying. Given the nature of the case, the Supreme Court ought to have handled the case in an exemplary manner to protect its own credibility — and thus faith in the Indian Republic — in the eyes of the public.

Unfortunately, it has merely taken a procedurally correct approach.

Read more

Are Pakistan’s Battlefield Nuclear Weapons a Mirage?

In April 2011, Pakistan conducted the first test of its short-range Hatf-IX or Nasr rocket. The test was interpreted as marking a shift in Pakistan’s nuclear posture to “full-spectrum deterrence,” which envisages a complete range of “strategic, operational and tactical” nuclear weapons that would give India “no place to hide.” More specifically, Pakistan claimed the Nasr was intended to “pour cold water over Cold Start,” the name given to the Indian Army’s doctrine, which involves the rapid mobilization of division-sized integrated battle groups making shallow incursions into Pakistani territory.Read More

RAW thinks espionage can be taught in 6-month crash course—it clearly needs training reforms

There is no doubt that inadequacies exist within India’s intelligence community, especially in the RAW. Instead of letting them fester and risk national security, the focus should be on reforms that focus on the people that constitute the institution.Read more

RAW needs to become more like CIA, and move away from IAS & IPS

Immediately after the 26/11 attacks in Mumbai, the rules for deputation to the RAW also came under the scanner. While the rules continue to be debated, it is clear that the benefits of separating the civil services from external intelligence outnumber the benefits brought by an amalgamation of the two. There are better-suited solutions that should not be dismissed without exploration.Read more

Advanced gene editing may mutate into WMDs

Last June, German police arrested a man planning a terror attack by releasing large quantities of the biological toxin ricin, said to be 6,000 times more poisonous than cyanide. The raids on a block of flats in Cologne blew the lid off our worst fears: non-state actors laying their hands on bioweapons.Technology has always changed war and its arsenal. Scientists, security experts and diplomats are increasingly talking about biological weapons when they discuss strategies to prevent proliferation of conventional and nuclear weapons. While biological attacks have been rare since the end of World War II, isolated incidents have been reported. The ‘anthrax letters’, which killed five people in the US following 9/11, is one such incident.Read Entire Article Here

After Mission Shakti, declare a ‘No First Use’ policy in space as well

Becoming a responsible space power should be India’s natural inclination. It should focus on building only relevant deterrence capability and follow a ‘No First Use’ doctrine as well work towards its global adoption.Read more

Terrorism needs an audience. Facebook gave Christchurch shooter more than he asked for

To be effective, terrorism must have an audience. The New Zealand attackers simply used a GoPro and live streaming on Facebook while they carried out the massacre. With social media and the mobile internet, terrorists can not only reach a global audience, they can get their message across unfiltered. These, unfortunately, are near-perfect conditions for terrorism.When Brenton Harrison Tarrant, the terrorist who carried out the atrocity at two mosques in Christchurch last week, killing at least 50 people, streamed his act live on Facebook, he proved, yet again, that terrorism is theatre. Brian Jenkins, an early analyst of terrorism, argued in 1975 that in “the age of mass communications…terrorism is aimed at the people watching.”While some terrorists make specific demands — like seeking the release of their fellows — the strategic purpose of the terrorists’ actions is to draw attention to their political cause, widen their gross public support and enlist new followers. Terrorism is, as a 19th century political activist described it, “propaganda of the deed.”Read More

OIC behaves like Organisation of Internal Contradictions, but India must be a part of it

There is a delicious irony in the Indian external affairs minister being the guest of honour at the OIC foreign ministers’ conclave in Abu Dhabi last week. The hosts did not rescind their invitation to India despite Pakistan’s strident protest, and accepted a Pakistani ministerial boycott as a price worth paying for the benefit of engaging India. Ironic, because it is almost exactly the opposite of what happened in September 1969, when the leaders of Muslim countries had assembled in Rabat, Morocco to inaugurate the Organisation of the Islamic Conference (since renamed to the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation).Read More

Ten Takeaways from the Recent India-Pakistan Escalation

As the fog of war between India and Pakistan clears, here’s an assessment of the strategic consequences that go beyond immediate tactical gains and losses.Read the full article on ThePrint.

Is Opposition justified in seeking Balakot evidence or shouldn’t politicise national security?

Pranay's reply to this question for ThePrint's #TalkPoint of 4th March 2019The opposition parties are justified in seeking evidence to the extent that the government’s spokespersons insist with their boastful claim that 250-300 terrorists were killed in the Balakot air strikes by the Indian Air Force.In the broader scheme of things, the strategic consequences of the air strikes remain the same irrespective of the casualty figure. It’s not as if the Jaish-e-Mohammed will stop terrorism just because the air strikes hit their facility and killed some of its operatives.But the Pakistani military-jihadi complex, spearheaded by the Pakistani army, will definitely remember that India struck on its sovereign territory in response to a terror attack by an outfit operating from its soil. So, the strikes are a dent on the Pakistani army – the self-proclaimed ideological and territorial defenders of Pakistan.This is the real strategic victory for India. Any physical damage to the JeM facility and its leadership is a bonus. Hence the government and the opposition both should desist from exploiting this successful operation for their own partisan propaganda. We as a society are on the wrong track if Pakistan and its terrorists become an important issue in the upcoming elections.Read more on ThePrint.