Takshashila Blog | Strategic Tides and Regional Dynamics: The China-Bangladesh Military Engagements

In the past decade, China’s military engagements with South Asia, particularly Bangladesh, have increased rapidly and garnered major attention. Beyond economic and infrastructure investments, China has progressively ventured into the realm of arms trade and has established itself as a major player among these states. This analysis explores the significant arms transactions between China and Bangladesh from 2010 to 2022, along with recent developments that illustrate the evolving dynamics of their relationship. It also examines the broader implications of these interactions for China's strategic posture within South Asia. Read the full article here.

CSIS Interpret | The Belt and Road Initiative at 10: Regional Perspectives on China’s Evolving Approach

No official Indian delegation attended the 2023 Belt and Road Forum, which was held in Beijing in October. This has been the pattern since the first forum was held in 2017 to expand cooperation around China’s Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). However, unlike the past two events, Beijing did not extend an invitation to New Delhi this time around. This offers a glimpse into the state of the bilateral relationship, which has been on a downward spiral since 2017. Read the full article here.

Firstpost | With Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te set to assume office, China's woes will only exacerbate

With newly elected Taiwanese President Lai Ching-te set to assume office on May 20, there is intense speculation surrounding China’s potential response to the event. In anticipation of an aggressive response, Tsai Ming-yen, Director-General of Taiwan’s National Security Bureau, announced on May 1 that island authorities will be implementing measures to strengthen national critical infrastructure. Aiding the island’s overall defence posture, on April 24, United States President Joe Biden has also signed a bill to mobilise $8 billion in defence aid to the Indo-Pacific in general and Taiwan in particular. With neither the US nor China backing down on their respective positions on the Taiwan issue, these developments add fire to the already deteriorating cross-Strait dynamics. Read the full article here.

Nikkei Asia | Xi Jinping's vision of war seen in creation of 'Information Force'

The latest restructuring of China's People's Liberation Army has put a spotlight on President Xi Jinping's concept of information as a central element of modern warfare. The reorganization, unveiled on April 19, has broken up the PLA's Strategic Support Force (SSF), formed only eight years ago, into an Aerospace Force, a Cyberspace Force and a new Information Support Force (ISF). Read the full article here.

Firstpost | What SSF’s disbandment tells us about Chinese policymaking under Xi Jinping

Chinese President Xi Jinping’s concentration of power over the past decade has heightened concerns about the efficiency and flexibility of policymaking in China. Three questions have been key to this discourse. First, has concentration of power and centralisation of decision-making enabled breaking through bureaucratic and vested interests to enact changes? Second, what has been the impact of centralisation on the flow of information within the system, particularly to the top leader? Third, has centralisation of power led to greater rigidity in policy thinking and implementation, resulting in the persistence of evidently adverse choices? The recent decision to disband the People’s Liberation Army (PLA) Strategic Support Force (SSF) and create three specialised arms offers an interesting case study in this context. Read the full article here.

The Diplomat | Blinken’s China Visit: Has Rapprochement Run Its Course?

In the past two years, the United States and China have been riding a wave of hyper-diplomacy in a bid to turn down simmering tensions between the two sides. An already tense relationship has been repeatedly pushed to the edge by events such as then-House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s visit to Taipei in August 2022 and the “spy balloon incident” of February 2023. Read the full article here.

The Diplomat | China’s Military-Civil Fusion Space Program

On April 17, NASA chief Bill Nelson cautioned that China’s “so-called civilian space program is a military program,” emphasizing that the United States is engaged in a space “race” with China. While NASA may have its reasons for securitizing this issue, one cannot overlook China’s rapid advancements in the space sector. China’s objective is to develop and acquire advanced dual-use technology for military purposes and deepen the reform of its national defense science and technology industries, which also serves a broader purpose of strengthening the country’s comprehensive national power. Read the full article here.

The Diplomat | How China Became the World’s Clean Tech Giant

China’s clean energy sector was the biggest driver of its GDP growth in 2023, contributing 40 percent (around $1.6 trillion) of its economic expansion. The country’s commitment to renewable energy is underscored by its substantial investments in the industry. Take the solar sector as an example. Chinese investments in new photovoltaic (PV) supply capacity over the last 10 years exceeded $50 billion – ten times more than all of Europe. This investment surge has strengthened China’s energy independence and promoted substantial job creation, with over 300,000 manufacturing jobs across the solar PV value chain added since 2011. China now commands over 80 percent share in all manufacturing stages of solar panels, from polysilicon to modules, solidifying its global leadership in solar energy. Read the full article here.

Firstpost | How recent Maldives parliamentary election results are a silver lining for India

In a clear endorsement of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s policies so far, the country voted his party’s People’s National Congress (PNC) to a two-third majority in the 93-member house in the latest parliamentary elections. With this win, Muizzu’s party now wields power both in the executive and the legislature, thereby allowing him to steer domestic and foreign policy with little opposition. Read the full article here.

The Quint | How Ma-Xi's Meeting Serves the Chinese Supremo More Than the Cross-Straits Ties

In January 2024, Taiwan witnessed one of its most important presidential and parliamentary elections, with many calling it a choice between war and peace. The election results also spoke to the divided nature of political opinion. Lai Ching-Te, the candidate of the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won the presidential election, while the majority in the legislative yuan was won by the primary opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). Read the full article here.

NDTV | A Shaky World Order: Can India Navigate A Russia-China-Iran Axis?

The world today appears to be on the verge of a cascade of conflicts. Over two years since it started, the Russia-Ukraine war does not seem to be heading towards an imminent settlement. Likewise, despite calls for a ceasefire, the Israel-Hamas conflict appears unlikely to abate anytime soon. And now, events over the past month involving Israel and Iran have demonstrated the potential for a wider regional conflict. Read the full article here.

The Indian Express | Warmer Moscow-Beijing ties are a chilling signal for New Delhi

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to China was brief but significant. On the face of it, Lavrov was in Beijing to set the stage for an anticipated trip by President Vladimir Putin in May. To that end, he met China’s President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Amidst the usual diplomatic pleasantries, three outcomes that emerged are particularly important from India’s perspective. Read the full article here.

South Asian Voices | Contemporary Dynamics of an India-Taiwan Partnership

Since India launched its Look East Policy in 1991, India and Taiwan have worked towards building a crucial bilateral partnership. On the technological front, Taiwan is a significant partner for India vis-a-vis sharing of knowledge on development of semiconductors, cybersecurity, and telecom infrastructure. On the economic front, Taiwan is becoming an important destination for Indian migrant workers looking for jobs in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors abroad. To this end, a labor migration and mobility Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed on February 16 by heads of the India-Taipei Association and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center, New Delhi. The MoU is intended to make it easier for Indian workers to find jobs in the manufacturing, construction, and agriculture sectors in Taiwan, thereby mitigating Taiwan’s labor shortage and India’s surplus labor problems.  Read the full article here.

Modern Diplomacy | Cross-Straits Relations have become more Dynamic and Volatile – Here are Four Reasons Why

Contemporary China-Taiwan cross-Straits relations have become a significant defining feature of regional security and stability in the Indo-Pacific, and are an equally important bone of contention in the US-China relationship. However, trends from this past decade indicate that cross-Straits dynamics are being shaped not just by unpredictable trigger events, but by four persistent and fundamental factors – political changes brought about by the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) since 2016, a strengthening sense of social identity in the Taiwanese population, increasing proximity between Taiwan and the US, and increasing Chinese power and assertiveness under Xi Jinping. Read the full article here.

9DashLine | China’s ‘history learning’ regulations

In February, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) released regulations governing the study of the Party's history. According to Chinese media, the document serves as the CPC’s “core internal guideline” for organising and implementing study programmes about the Party’s history, with the goal of “strengthening understanding, conviction, integrity, and diligence”. Read the full article here.

Foreign Policy | The Hidden Dangers in China’s GDP Numbers

China’s recently announced GDP target for 2024  remains unchanged from last year, at 5 percent. But even if the country hits that number, its economic problems run deep. In January, China published economic data for the last quarter of 2023 which put its annual GDP growth rate at 5.2 percent, beating the government target. Yet, to put things in perspective, China’s real GDP growth rate from 2011 to 2019 averaged 7.3 percent while 2001-10 saw average growth of 10.5 percent. Read the full article here.

Moneycontrol | Thinking through a Taiwan conflict – How can countries like India respond?

In the past few years, the China-Taiwan cross-Straits relationship has witnessed rising tensions. There now exist fundamental faultlines in the cross-Straits relationship, which may create an escalatory ladder leading to an eventual conflict scenario. Such a scenario shall endanger the interests of not just parties directly involved, such as the US, China and Taiwan, but also other countries around the world. In this regard, what are the politico-legal options available to concerned States at multilateral forums like the United Nations to voice their interests in the event of a conflict? A three-part solution may provide some answers. Read the full article here.

Samoa Observer | What binds the Quad

Last month, the US House of Representatives passed Strengthening the Quad Act with an overwhelming majority, indicating the critical role the Quad will play in American efforts to engage with the Indo-Pacific. Along with India, Australia and Japan, the four-country grouping has pledged ongoing cooperation. Understanding how the Quad evolves in the future and navigates tumultuous times requires understanding what binds the Quad today, and how the present iteration of the Quad, which has elevated to a leaders’ summit, differs from its earlier incarnation almost two decades ago, which never rose beyond officials-level meetings. Read the full article here.

Firstpost | Implications of Chinese fishing boats in Taiwan’s ‘prohibited’ waters

Any plans China and Taiwan had for Valentine’s Day were derailed when, on 14 February, 2024, a Chinese fishing boat with four fishermen on board capsized near the Kinmen Islands, leading to the deaths of two of the fishermen. The incident occurred when the fishing boat became embroiled in a high-speed chase to evade patrol vessel CP-1051 of the 12th Patrol District of the Taiwanese Coast Guard Administration’s (TGCA) Kinmen-Matsu-Penghu branch. The chase reportedly lasted only five minutes but has highlighted the structural lack of meaningful communication in cross-Straits relations on basic issues such as fishing rights. Read the full article here.

South Asian Voices | Navigating the India-Maldives Diplomatic Spat

The Maldives, often depicted in the news as a tropical paradise, recently had a less idyllic appearance in the headlines. President Mohamed Muizzu’s government ruffled feathers in New Delhi by asking India to withdraw its military personnel by March 15, 2024, using their recent high-level core group meeting to deliberate upon a “mutually workable solution.” To persuade voters, Muizzu built on the “India Out” campaign, which portrayed the presence of Indian personnel as a threat to Maldivian sovereignty. He promised to remove Indian troops from the Maldives shores and balance trade relations with India, which he claimed were heavily tilted toward India’s favor. Muizzu’s new “Pro Maldives” strategy led to him win the elections with 54 percent of the votes in September 2023. Malé recently scrapped a key pact involving a water survey, and Muizzu chose China for one of his first overseas visits in January after becoming president. There, he signed 20 agreements, including one on tourism cooperation. Read the full article here.