Commentary

Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy

Indo-Pacific Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Indo-Pacific Studies Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

The Diplomat | How China Became the World’s Clean Tech Giant

By Rakshith Shetty

China’s clean energy sector was the biggest driver of its GDP growth in 2023, contributing 40 percent (around $1.6 trillion) of its economic expansion. The country’s commitment to renewable energy is underscored by its substantial investments in the industry. Take the solar sector as an example. Chinese investments in new photovoltaic (PV) supply capacity over the last 10 years exceeded $50 billion – ten times more than all of Europe. This investment surge has strengthened China’s energy independence and promoted substantial job creation, with over 300,000 manufacturing jobs across the solar PV value chain added since 2011. China now commands over 80 percent share in all manufacturing stages of solar panels, from polysilicon to modules, solidifying its global leadership in solar energy. Read the full article here.

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Firstpost | How recent Maldives parliamentary election results are a silver lining for India

By Amit Kumar

In a clear endorsement of Maldivian President Mohamed Muizzu’s policies so far, the country voted his party’s People’s National Congress (PNC) to a two-third majority in the 93-member house in the latest parliamentary elections. With this win, Muizzu’s party now wields power both in the executive and the legislature, thereby allowing him to steer domestic and foreign policy with little opposition. Read the full article here.

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The Quint | How Ma-Xi's Meeting Serves the Chinese Supremo More Than the Cross-Straits Ties

By Anushka Saxena

In January 2024, Taiwan witnessed one of its most important presidential and parliamentary elections, with many calling it a choice between war and peace. The election results also spoke to the divided nature of political opinion. Lai Ching-Te, the candidate of the incumbent Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), won the presidential election, while the majority in the legislative yuan was won by the primary opposition party, the Kuomintang (KMT). Read the full article here.

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NDTV | A Shaky World Order: Can India Navigate A Russia-China-Iran Axis?

By Manoj Kewalramani & Anushka Saxena

The world today appears to be on the verge of a cascade of conflicts. Over two years since it started, the Russia-Ukraine war does not seem to be heading towards an imminent settlement. Likewise, despite calls for a ceasefire, the Israel-Hamas conflict appears unlikely to abate anytime soon. And now, events over the past month involving Israel and Iran have demonstrated the potential for a wider regional conflict. Read the full article here.

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The Indian Express | Warmer Moscow-Beijing ties are a chilling signal for New Delhi

By Manoj Kewalramani & Amit Kumar

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to China was brief but significant. On the face of it, Lavrov was in Beijing to set the stage for an anticipated trip by President Vladimir Putin in May. To that end, he met China’s President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Amidst the usual diplomatic pleasantries, three outcomes that emerged are particularly important from India’s perspective. Read the full article here.

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South Asian Voices | Contemporary Dynamics of an India-Taiwan Partnership

By Anushka Saxena

Since India launched its Look East Policy in 1991, India and Taiwan have worked towards building a crucial bilateral partnership. On the technological front, Taiwan is a significant partner for India vis-a-vis sharing of knowledge on development of semiconductors, cybersecurity, and telecom infrastructure. On the economic front, Taiwan is becoming an important destination for Indian migrant workers looking for jobs in the agriculture and manufacturing sectors abroad. To this end, a labor migration and mobility Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) was signed on February 16 by heads of the India-Taipei Association and the Taipei Economic and Cultural Center, New Delhi. The MoU is intended to make it easier for Indian workers to find jobs in the manufacturing, construction, and agriculture sectors in Taiwan, thereby mitigating Taiwan’s labor shortage and India’s surplus labor problems.  Read the full article here.

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Modern Diplomacy | Cross-Straits Relations have become more Dynamic and Volatile – Here are Four Reasons Why

By Anushka Saxena

Contemporary China-Taiwan cross-Straits relations have become a significant defining feature of regional security and stability in the Indo-Pacific, and are an equally important bone of contention in the US-China relationship. However, trends from this past decade indicate that cross-Straits dynamics are being shaped not just by unpredictable trigger events, but by four persistent and fundamental factors – political changes brought about by the rule of the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) since 2016, a strengthening sense of social identity in the Taiwanese population, increasing proximity between Taiwan and the US, and increasing Chinese power and assertiveness under Xi Jinping. Read the full article here.

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9DashLine | China’s ‘history learning’ regulations

By Manoj Kewalramani & Rakshith Shetty

In February, the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China (CPC) released regulations governing the study of the Party's history. According to Chinese media, the document serves as the CPC’s “core internal guideline” for organising and implementing study programmes about the Party’s history, with the goal of “strengthening understanding, conviction, integrity, and diligence”. Read the full article here.

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Foreign Policy | The Hidden Dangers in China’s GDP Numbers

By Amit Kumar

China’s recently announced GDP target for 2024  remains unchanged from last year, at 5 percent. But even if the country hits that number, its economic problems run deep. In January, China published economic data for the last quarter of 2023 which put its annual GDP growth rate at 5.2 percent, beating the government target. Yet, to put things in perspective, China’s real GDP growth rate from 2011 to 2019 averaged 7.3 percent while 2001-10 saw average growth of 10.5 percent. Read the full article here.

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Moneycontrol | Thinking through a Taiwan conflict – How can countries like India respond?

By Anushka Saxena

In the past few years, the China-Taiwan cross-Straits relationship has witnessed rising tensions. There now exist fundamental faultlines in the cross-Straits relationship, which may create an escalatory ladder leading to an eventual conflict scenario. Such a scenario shall endanger the interests of not just parties directly involved, such as the US, China and Taiwan, but also other countries around the world. In this regard, what are the politico-legal options available to concerned States at multilateral forums like the United Nations to voice their interests in the event of a conflict? A three-part solution may provide some answers. Read the full article here.

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Samoa Observer | What binds the Quad

By Bharat Sharma

Last month, the US House of Representatives passed Strengthening the Quad Act with an overwhelming majority, indicating the critical role the Quad will play in American efforts to engage with the Indo-Pacific. Along with India, Australia and Japan, the four-country grouping has pledged ongoing cooperation. Understanding how the Quad evolves in the future and navigates tumultuous times requires understanding what binds the Quad today, and how the present iteration of the Quad, which has elevated to a leaders’ summit, differs from its earlier incarnation almost two decades ago, which never rose beyond officials-level meetings. Read the full article here.

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Firstpost | Implications of Chinese fishing boats in Taiwan’s ‘prohibited’ waters

By Anushka Saxena

Any plans China and Taiwan had for Valentine’s Day were derailed when, on 14 February, 2024, a Chinese fishing boat with four fishermen on board capsized near the Kinmen Islands, leading to the deaths of two of the fishermen. The incident occurred when the fishing boat became embroiled in a high-speed chase to evade patrol vessel CP-1051 of the 12th Patrol District of the Taiwanese Coast Guard Administration’s (TGCA) Kinmen-Matsu-Penghu branch. The chase reportedly lasted only five minutes but has highlighted the structural lack of meaningful communication in cross-Straits relations on basic issues such as fishing rights. Read the full article here.

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South Asian Voices | Navigating the India-Maldives Diplomatic Spat

By Rakshith Shetty

The Maldives, often depicted in the news as a tropical paradise, recently had a less idyllic appearance in the headlines. President Mohamed Muizzu’s government ruffled feathers in New Delhi by asking India to withdraw its military personnel by March 15, 2024, using their recent high-level core group meeting to deliberate upon a “mutually workable solution.” To persuade voters, Muizzu built on the “India Out” campaign, which portrayed the presence of Indian personnel as a threat to Maldivian sovereignty. He promised to remove Indian troops from the Maldives shores and balance trade relations with India, which he claimed were heavily tilted toward India’s favor. Muizzu’s new “Pro Maldives” strategy led to him win the elections with 54 percent of the votes in September 2023. Malé recently scrapped a key pact involving a water survey, and Muizzu chose China for one of his first overseas visits in January after becoming president. There, he signed 20 agreements, including one on tourism cooperation. Read the full article here.

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Fulcrum | India and China’s Volatile New Status Quo

By Manoj Kewalramani

In early January, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke at a symposium on the country’s foreign relations. The speech touched upon the churn in China’s ties with several countries. While India was not included in that list, the Sino-Indian relationship remained abnormal since their standoff in Eastern Ladakh in April-May 2020. It bears repeating that this would have repercussions for Southeast Asia and the wider region. Read the full article here.

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The Diplomat | Playing the Long Game: Ukraine’s Approach to China

By Rakshith Shetty

Multiple news articles report Beijing snubbing Ukraine during the recent World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Switzerland, with Chinese Premier Li Qiang refusing to meet Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In response, Zelenskyy clarified that he never wanted to meet Li, suggesting that the latter was not high-ranking enough to be worth meeting. “There is a Chinese premier – then our prime minister will meet with him. I would love to meet with the leader of China,” the Ukrainian president said. “As far as I know, [in China] Xi Jinping makes decisions, and in Ukraine, I make decisions. I don’t need just any dialogues; I need important decisions from the leaders who make these decisions.” Read the full article here.

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Deccan Herald | Is India on course to address maritime threats?

By Yusuf T Unjhawala

India’s foreign minister, S Jaishankar, is due to visit Tehran today, and he could probably confront Iran with evidence of its involvement in the drone attack on the commercial ship MV Chem Pluto about 200 nautical miles from the Indian coast with with cargo heading to Mangaluru. Read the full article here.

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The Quint | Taiwan Polls 2024: Amid Cross-Strait Jigsaw, the Impact of US-China Tensions

By Anushka Saxena

Amidst a host of elections around the world in 2024, the island of Taiwan is all geared up for its own presidential election and for members of its parliament, the legislative yuan. As the popular vote takes place today, on 13 January, it has – Lai Ching-Te, the current Vice-President of Taiwan and the candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih, incumbent mayor of New Taipei and candidate of the Kuomintang Party (KMT), and Ko Wen-Je, former mayor of Taipei and candidate of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) as contenders. Read the full article here.

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Moneycontrol | Maldives: Is Muizzu’s pro-China tilt just a balancing act?

By Bharat Sharma

Recently, the Maldives government decided to terminate a hydrography agreement with India, committing to conduct hydrographic activities independently after June next year. Separately, New Delhi has raised its objections with Malé that the Chinese survey vessel, Shi Yan 6, not be allowed to dock and pursue scientific exploration, such as deep water exploration, next year. New Delhi is concerned that a “pro-China” government in Malé may deepen China’s influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). How concerned should India be with Maldives’ relationship with China, and Chinese activities in the IOR? Read the full article here.

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The Hindu | What does China’s 2024 economic policy look like? 

By Anushka Saxena

The 2023 Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual meeting mechanism of the Communist Party where the economic direction of the nation for the upcoming year is deliberated and agreed upon by key stakeholders, recently concluded on December 12, and the readout from the meeting stresses a stability-oriented pathway for the Chinese economy in 2024. Overall, the line of action seems pretty clear, at least from the CEWC deliberations - moving away from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, expanding high-quality production process, achieving self-reliance in critical tech but collaborating with trade partners as necessary, and ensuring financial discipline alongside stability of funds and liquidity. Needless to say, many of these goals have been repeated in the past few years, but some of them require intense structural reform, including by means of abandoning long-held beliefs and practices of the Chinese party-state. Read the full article here.

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Bharat Shakti | Drones Unleashed: China’s PLA Masters Swarming Techniques For Military Dominance

By Anushka Saxena

Technological reforms in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have ushered in an era of integration of weapons systems with new technologies and modular capabilities. Doctrinally, too, the PLA is adapting to new, collaborative and multi-domain techniques for fighting wars. One of the techniques that the PLA is now increasingly working with is drone swarming, which encompasses synchronisation and coordinated operation of multiple drones for the purpose of achieving a single objective. Read the full article here.

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