Moneycontrol | Thinking through a Taiwan conflict – How can countries like India respond?

In the past few years, the China-Taiwan cross-Straits relationship has witnessed rising tensions. There now exist fundamental faultlines in the cross-Straits relationship, which may create an escalatory ladder leading to an eventual conflict scenario. Such a scenario shall endanger the interests of not just parties directly involved, such as the US, China and Taiwan, but also other countries around the world. In this regard, what are the politico-legal options available to concerned States at multilateral forums like the United Nations to voice their interests in the event of a conflict? A three-part solution may provide some answers. Read the full article here.

Samoa Observer | What binds the Quad

Last month, the US House of Representatives passed Strengthening the Quad Act with an overwhelming majority, indicating the critical role the Quad will play in American efforts to engage with the Indo-Pacific. Along with India, Australia and Japan, the four-country grouping has pledged ongoing cooperation. Understanding how the Quad evolves in the future and navigates tumultuous times requires understanding what binds the Quad today, and how the present iteration of the Quad, which has elevated to a leaders’ summit, differs from its earlier incarnation almost two decades ago, which never rose beyond officials-level meetings. Read the full article here.

Firstpost | Implications of Chinese fishing boats in Taiwan’s ‘prohibited’ waters

Any plans China and Taiwan had for Valentine’s Day were derailed when, on 14 February, 2024, a Chinese fishing boat with four fishermen on board capsized near the Kinmen Islands, leading to the deaths of two of the fishermen. The incident occurred when the fishing boat became embroiled in a high-speed chase to evade patrol vessel CP-1051 of the 12th Patrol District of the Taiwanese Coast Guard Administration’s (TGCA) Kinmen-Matsu-Penghu branch. The chase reportedly lasted only five minutes but has highlighted the structural lack of meaningful communication in cross-Straits relations on basic issues such as fishing rights. Read the full article here.

South Asian Voices | Navigating the India-Maldives Diplomatic Spat

The Maldives, often depicted in the news as a tropical paradise, recently had a less idyllic appearance in the headlines. President Mohamed Muizzu’s government ruffled feathers in New Delhi by asking India to withdraw its military personnel by March 15, 2024, using their recent high-level core group meeting to deliberate upon a “mutually workable solution.” To persuade voters, Muizzu built on the “India Out” campaign, which portrayed the presence of Indian personnel as a threat to Maldivian sovereignty. He promised to remove Indian troops from the Maldives shores and balance trade relations with India, which he claimed were heavily tilted toward India’s favor. Muizzu’s new “Pro Maldives” strategy led to him win the elections with 54 percent of the votes in September 2023. Malé recently scrapped a key pact involving a water survey, and Muizzu chose China for one of his first overseas visits in January after becoming president. There, he signed 20 agreements, including one on tourism cooperation. Read the full article here.

Fulcrum | India and China’s Volatile New Status Quo

In early January, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi spoke at a symposium on the country’s foreign relations. The speech touched upon the churn in China’s ties with several countries. While India was not included in that list, the Sino-Indian relationship remained abnormal since their standoff in Eastern Ladakh in April-May 2020. It bears repeating that this would have repercussions for Southeast Asia and the wider region. Read the full article here.

The Diplomat | Playing the Long Game: Ukraine’s Approach to China

Multiple news articles report Beijing snubbing Ukraine during the recent World Economic Forum (WEF) meeting in Switzerland, with Chinese Premier Li Qiang refusing to meet Ukraine’s President Volodymyr Zelenskyy. In response, Zelenskyy clarified that he never wanted to meet Li, suggesting that the latter was not high-ranking enough to be worth meeting. “There is a Chinese premier – then our prime minister will meet with him. I would love to meet with the leader of China,” the Ukrainian president said. “As far as I know, [in China] Xi Jinping makes decisions, and in Ukraine, I make decisions. I don’t need just any dialogues; I need important decisions from the leaders who make these decisions.” Read the full article here.

Deccan Herald | Is India on course to address maritime threats?

India’s foreign minister, S Jaishankar, is due to visit Tehran today, and he could probably confront Iran with evidence of its involvement in the drone attack on the commercial ship MV Chem Pluto about 200 nautical miles from the Indian coast with with cargo heading to Mangaluru. Read the full article here.

The Quint | Taiwan Polls 2024: Amid Cross-Strait Jigsaw, the Impact of US-China Tensions

Amidst a host of elections around the world in 2024, the island of Taiwan is all geared up for its own presidential election and for members of its parliament, the legislative yuan. As the popular vote takes place today, on 13 January, it has – Lai Ching-Te, the current Vice-President of Taiwan and the candidate for the Democratic Progressive Party (DPP), Hou Yu-ih, incumbent mayor of New Taipei and candidate of the Kuomintang Party (KMT), and Ko Wen-Je, former mayor of Taipei and candidate of the Taiwan People’s Party (TPP) as contenders. Read the full article here.

Moneycontrol | Maldives: Is Muizzu’s pro-China tilt just a balancing act?

Recently, the Maldives government decided to terminate a hydrography agreement with India, committing to conduct hydrographic activities independently after June next year. Separately, New Delhi has raised its objections with Malé that the Chinese survey vessel, Shi Yan 6, not be allowed to dock and pursue scientific exploration, such as deep water exploration, next year. New Delhi is concerned that a “pro-China” government in Malé may deepen China’s influence in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). How concerned should India be with Maldives’ relationship with China, and Chinese activities in the IOR? Read the full article here.

The Hindu | What does China’s 2024 economic policy look like?

The 2023 Chinese Central Economic Work Conference (CEWC), an annual meeting mechanism of the Communist Party where the economic direction of the nation for the upcoming year is deliberated and agreed upon by key stakeholders, recently concluded on December 12, and the readout from the meeting stresses a stability-oriented pathway for the Chinese economy in 2024. Overall, the line of action seems pretty clear, at least from the CEWC deliberations - moving away from export-led to domestic demand-led growth, expanding high-quality production process, achieving self-reliance in critical tech but collaborating with trade partners as necessary, and ensuring financial discipline alongside stability of funds and liquidity. Needless to say, many of these goals have been repeated in the past few years, but some of them require intense structural reform, including by means of abandoning long-held beliefs and practices of the Chinese party-state. Read the full article here.

Bharat Shakti | Drones Unleashed: China’s PLA Masters Swarming Techniques For Military Dominance

Technological reforms in the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA) have ushered in an era of integration of weapons systems with new technologies and modular capabilities. Doctrinally, too, the PLA is adapting to new, collaborative and multi-domain techniques for fighting wars. One of the techniques that the PLA is now increasingly working with is drone swarming, which encompasses synchronisation and coordinated operation of multiple drones for the purpose of achieving a single objective. Read the full article here.

Firstpost | Propelled by shared security concerns, India-Australia defence partnership gains dynamic momentum

The India-Australia relationship has seen meteoric growth since the turn of the century, with defence and security cooperation increasing in concert with stronger ties in other areas. Their converging security interests — due to the rise of the Indo-Pacific as a strategic construct, shared concerns in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR), and a shared threat perception with respect to China — have led to numerous domains in which India and Australia cooperate. Read the full article here.

The Diplomat | What’s in the New Amendments to China’s State Secrets Law?

At the sixth session of the Standing Committee of China’s top legislature, the National People’s Congress, last month, a draft amendment to the State Secrets Law was submitted for review and deliberation. Given the pervasive securitization of information in China today, the submission is considered timely in expanding the purview of “secrecy work” — that is, the task of protecting state secrets — in China. Read the full article here.

Mint | Containing China's technology ecosystem will remain a US policy priority

The most significant achievement of last week’s meeting between Joe Biden and Xi Jinping was that it took place. Xi agreed to crack down on fentanyl exports and resume military communication channels. There was some agreement on working together on managing risks from artificial intelligence. It took six months of ground work by cabinet-level officials and four hours of direct talks between the two leaders to agree on these limited points. Read the full article here.

Moneycontrol - Biden-Xi Summit: Challenge is to continue US-China engagements despite tensions

Leaders of the United States and China are expected to hold their first bilateral meeting in a year at the sidelines of the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation (APEC) Summit in San Francisco today. The fact that this meeting is taking place is in itself a significant achievement for diplomats on both sides. It also underscores that despite the intense nature of Sino-US strategic competition and heated rhetoric, achieving some sort of stability is a shared interest. Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi captured this in outlining the “Five Musts” for the two countries during his recent visit to the US. Read the full article here.

The Quad needs to work with other groups. ASEAN is the place to start

In recent years, the members of the Quad -- the U.S., Australia, Japan and India -- have each ramped up cooperation and relations with ASEAN countries. In September, Japan became the last of the quartet to upgrade its relationship with ASEAN to the level of a "comprehensive strategic partnership," and each of the four held a separate meeting with ASEAN leaders that month. Even India, which has had the weakest institutional connections with Southeast Asian governments, has markedly increased collaborative efforts in various areas under Prime Minister Narendra Modi's "Act East" policy. In May, New Delhi conducted joint maritime exercises with ASEAN in the South China Sea. Read the full article here.

Hindustan Times | India, China war of positions in Maldives

The Maldivian presidential election last month culminated in a victory for Mohamed Muizzu and a loss for incumbent president Ibrahim Solih. The election was keenly watched in New Delhi and Beijing. How India and China see each other in strategic spaces such as the Maldives determines the nature of their competition in Small Island Developing States (SIDS) in the Indian Ocean Region (IOR). Read the full article here.

The Wire China | How China’s Global Initiatives Aim to Change the Way the World is Run

In 2013, in a speech in Moscow, Xi Jinping floated the idea of mankind being a community of shared future or common destiny. In the decade that has followed, this phrase began to shift from being a description of the world’s interconnected nature to underpinning the idea of a more proactive foreign policy that aims to shape a favourable external environment for China.  Since 2021, however, with the launch of the Global Development Initiative (GDI), the Global Security Initiative (GSI) and the Global Civilisation Initiative (GCI), the concept of mankind being a community of common destiny has been fleshed out as Beijing’s key proposition to reform global governance. Read the full article here.

Moneycontrol | China’s expanding military drone ecosystem is a menace for the likes of Taiwan and India

The recently concluded Sixth Chinese Helicopter Exposition, held in the Tianjin municipality of Northeastern China, put up a huge show of airpower with over 350 aircraft and air defence systems manufacturers from around 20 countries participating. At this expo, the Chinese People’s Liberation Army ground forces unveiled the latest addition to their drone arsenal, the KVD-002, manufactured by the Aerospace CH UAV Company. Read the full article here.

Mint | Championing pluralism globally will make India a ‘vishwaguru’

Contrary to what its critics think, India is well placed to be a vishwaguru, an exemplar state that shows the world the way towards a better future. Like all good gurus, it is neither perfect nor without self-doubt. Its many failings are open for all to see. Just like a good guru need not be a mahatma, it is not necessary for India to attain moral, political or economic superpowerdom to put forth its formula to improve how the world governs itself. Read the full article here.