What unrest and anger in China’s cities reveal

Cities across China have witnessed protests over the past week, as people have demonstrated their anger and frustration with the persistence and costs of the zero-Covid policy. What triggered the protests was an apartment fire in Urumqi, the capital of the Xinjiang Uyghur Autonomous Region, which led to the death of 10 people. Reports of the Covid-19 lockdown in the city hampering rescue efforts ignited widespread anger on social media. Soon, this anger, fuelled further by official denials and online censorship, spilled onto the streets of major cities in the country. In Shanghai, hundreds gathered along Wulumuqi Road, named after Urumqi, demanded the lifting of lockdowns and basic human rights, and carried blank pieces of paper to protest the lack of freedom of expression. Similar protests have since been seen in cities such as Wuhan, Chengdu, Beijing, and Nanjing, among others. In some instances, protesters have gone beyond simply demanding an end to lockdowns and mass testing to call for freedom, respect for universal values, and for Xi Jinping to step down.

Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf’s biggest strength lies in its weakness. That’s tempting for army

On 3 November 2022, when I first heard that Imran Khan had been shot, my instinctive conclusion was that the Pakistan Army must have orchestrated it. When it was quickly followed up by an assurance that he had suffered only minor bullet injuries to his leg, my instincts discounted the involvement of the Pakistan Army as the attempt did not reflect its professional competence in such matters. Later, as details trickled in, the attempt seemed amateurish. Accusations toward the Shehbaz Sharif government and the Inter-Services intelligence by Khan and his party, the Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf, followed, while a few in the ruling coalition described the incident as staged.

Results of the US midterm elections and what it means for India

With only a few seats left to be declared, the 2022 US midterm election is like the cliffhanger scene from the penultimate episode of a thrilling whodunnit. The predicted red wave did not lash America, but the Republicans did manage a ripple, and flipped some seats in the US House of Representatives, the lower house of the American Congress.

Should India look closely at these elections from a foreign policy lens? Not generally, but there will be some specific impact as we shall see in a while.

The future as foretold by Xi: Chinese citizens have to brace themselves for tough times, Indians for a more aggressive PLA

In many ways, the 20th Congress of the Communist Party of China has been a somewhat anticlimactic event. Prior to the quinquennial meeting, there was a general sense among scholars and watchers of China that the congress would largely signal political and policy continuity. It has indeed largely reaffirmed the direction in which China was already heading. That said, the past week has shed greater light on what we can expect going ahead.

China lowered the gun for Modi-Xi Uzbekistan meet. India can’t take its eyes off the barrel yet

Breaking the military deadlock at Gogra-Hot Springs in Ladakh has been touted as paving the way for the Narendra Modi-Xi Jinping meeting on the sidelines of the Shanghai Cooperation Organisation summit scheduled in Uzbekistan on 15-16 September. The military commanders had probably arrived at a consensus when they met for the 16th round of negotiations on 17 July. But political approval by both sides seems to have taken nearly two months. The delay conceals more than it reveals about the contemporary dynamics of China-India relations and the role of the military confrontation on India’s northern border in the context of power shifts leading to geopolitical competition at the global level.

The Coming Battle for Taiwan

A very good way to get a handle on the geopolitical developments in the Indo Pacific—and the current Taiwan crisis—is to pay attention to what the Communist Party of China’s leaders have been declaring for decades. They want to reunify the country both to recover from two centuries of humiliation by Western powers and to finish the civil war that started nearly a hundred years ago. China will then retake its rightful place as a global power. Presumably, this will be within an international order where it is the peerless Middle Kingdom surrounded by tributaries whose fortunes depend on Beijing’s goodwill.

Xi’S Power Base in the Communist Party Central Committee

Mao's often-quoted expression “political power grows out of the barrel of a gun” remains as critical to understanding the dynamics of power in China today as it was in the late 1920s. Xi Jinping, soon after assuming the position of Party General Secretary in late 2012, moved quickly to exert his control over the ‘gun’ — i.e., the People's Liberation Army (PLA). He has spent the past decade reshaping the PLA and forging loyalty, from the military-political work conference in Gutian in 2014 and an anti-corruption campaign (which targeted some of the highest-ranking PLA officials), to initiating major structural reforms.

India has to Step Up Engagement in the Pacific

As Washington and Beijing attempt to woo countries in South Pacific, Washington's partners in the Indo-Pacific will have to step up. To strengthen its position in the Indio-Pacific through the Quad, New Delhi should step up economic, diplomatic, and and other engagements in the Pacific region. China's engagement in the Pacific and last month's Pacific tour of Wang Yi point to three trends.

Modi said Neighbourhood First. Sri Lanka crisis is India’s chance to prove it

Gotabaya Rajapaksa fled for his life after being driven out by the people of Sri Lanka. Meanwhile, Pushpa Kamal Dahal ‘Prachanda’, Nepal’s former prime minister on a three-day visit at the invitation of the BJP, said ‘issues left by history’ must be addressed in order to realise the full potential of the bilateral ties. This perspective is often mirrored across India’s bilateral ties with all its subcontinental neighbours – Pakistan, Nepal, Sri Lanka, Bhutan, Bangladesh, and the Maldives. Each of these relationships carries the weight of history that continues to both bind and rupture the spirit of friendliness.

There are cracks in BRICS & trouble for India

Last week’s BRICS summit was bookended by some excitement over the possibility of the group expanding by accepting new members and reports that Argentina and Iran had applied for membership. What this obscures, however, is the fact that amid the evolving geopolitical situation, the BRICS mechanism appears to be undergoing an identity crisis. There is a deepening contradiction at the heart of the grouping, which is likely to result in extremely difficult choices for Indian foreign policy.

For Delhi, new Xiopolitics

Two years ago, the Galwan valley clash came amid a period of intense Chinese People’s Liberation Army activity across different theatres. In March 2020, as WHO declared Covid a global pandemic, Chinese jets intensified drills along the Taiwan Strait. The Liaoning carrier conducted take-off and landing exercises in the Bohai Strait and would later sail past Taiwan. The PLA Daily hailed the drills, boasting about war preparedness amid the pandemic.

The US Must Provide Concrete Benefits to IPEF Signatories

At the recently concluded Quad summit in Tokyo, India joined the United States (US)-led Indo-Pacific Economic Framework (IPEF), created to provide an alternative trading arrangement and counter Chinese dominance in the region. While the scope is broad enough to provide an inclusive platform, the ambiguity, vagueness, and the lack of specific agreements can render it toothless.

100 Days of Russia-Ukraine conflict: How China's Choices have Damaged its External Environment

Earlier this week, a lengthy front page commentary in the People’s Daily, the Chinese Communist Party’s flagship newspaper, bemoaned the deterioration of China’s external environment. The author warned that following the war in Ukraine, “instability, uncertainty and insecurity” were on the rise, and that the West, led by the US, was doubling down on policies aimed at “containing and suppressing” China. Although the author called for focus on running internal affairs well and dismissed external factors as not being “decisive” in China’s pursuit of its goal of national rejuvenation, the assessment does reveal how deeply the war in Ukraine has adversely affected China’s strategic interests.

Why Xi Jinping’s Iron Grip on Power is Intact

The past two months have seen intense speculation about the political churn within China. There have been reports of unhappiness and factional contestation around Xi Jinping’s policies on the Russian invasion of Ukraine, Covid-19 containment, and the direction of economic policy. This has fuelled rumours of a deeper pushback against Xi, heading into the 20th National Congress of the Chinese Communist Party (CPC). While there is evidence of policy contestation and frustration, there is little to suggest that Xi’s political authority is diminished. 

West’s Russia Model Won’t Work with China: Why Tech Sanctions Alone Cannot Deter Dragon

The tech sanctions on Russia would have a devastating impact on its economy and affect the domestic market’s accessibility to basic technology goods. But if there is Chinese aggression against Taiwan in the near future, can these sanctions work? Will tech sanctions serve as a credible tool to deter or even punish the Chinese state from conducting their own military operations across the Taiwan straits? For a technologically advanced state such as China, will these targeted sanctions have any impact on its tech economy? China is much more integrated into the global economy and supply chain. And, that makes it much more difficult to have broad-based sanctions against China unlike those against Russia; it also makes sanctions far more costly for China because it has much more to lose.

A Road Map for Quad’s Emerging Technology Working Group

The second in-person summit of Quad is all set to be held in Japan on May 24. The leaders of the four countries are expected to announce future partnerships and projects across various sectors. As many as 12 working groups have been created thus far as part of the Quad grouping. Among them is the critical and emerging technology working group that was established in March 2021 to foster technological collaboration. Here are the three main areas of focus that Quad should focus on to create an immediate impact in the technology domain:

If India Wants Political Stability in Colombo, It Must Act in Interest of Sri Lankan People

On May 9, the largely peaceful anti-Rajapaksa protests in Sri Lanka took a violent turn. In the resulting violence, nine people died, including two policemen, with the agitating crowd burning down the home of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Subsequently, while the Prime Minister resigned, his younger brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa remained the President. Facing nationwide civil unrest, the government imposed a curfew on May 9 and issued shoot at sight orders on those engaging in violence. Though the appointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister has provided a semblance of political stability in the country, the protesters have refused to budge from their demand for the resignation of President Gotabaya.

Forcing languages on people has a bad track record in the region

If only our high school text books did not stop History somewhere around 1950, generations of Indians might become aware of the mistakes made by our neighbours and stop insisting on repeating them in India. The subcontinent’s history of strife stirred by linguistic chauvinism should strike a cautionary note. Pluralism is the magic formula that others missed. We would do well to heed the warning that the history of our neighbourhood offers us: Don’t mess with language.

How India and China can Work Together on a Geoengineering Governance Framework

India and China have the possibility of driving forward the conversation on continuing credible research in the field of geoengineering. Both countries have been torchbearers for the rest of the developing world at climate conferences and both can work together to formulate a well-rounded governance framework regulating the research and technology in the field. While ethical considerations should be taken into account, the two countries can develop a holistic model (that also looks at potential negative consequences of geoengineering techniques) to have solar radiation management as a probable climate policy option. National agencies can be set up for funding solar geo-tech research and also keep tabs on the experiments being conducted.

Why India should pull Sri Lanka out of China’s ‘debt trap’ and take it closer to the US

On 12 April, Sri Lanka declared the default on all payments on its $51-billion external debt to buy oil and agricultural commodities. The alarming level of food scarcity in the country has mobilised the population to demand the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa with the slogans ‘Go Gota Go’ and ‘Go Home Gota’ echoing on the streets. His decision to impose a public emergency on 1 April intensified protests further, leading to its quick revocation four days later. On the same day, former President Maithripala Sirisena-led Sri Lanka Freedom Party decided to withdraw its support from the ruling coalition led by Mahinda Rajapaksa. Till now, 42 members of the Sri Lankan parliament have withdrawn their support from the ruling coalition, including 12 from the Rajapaksas’ Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, leading to the government’s loss of majority.