Xi’s Strategic Folly: Why a New National Security Law Highlights China’s Insecurities

This article was first published in The Diplomat.Xi Jinping’s move reflects Beijing’s insecurities over Hong KongLast week was among the most critical in Hong Kong’s history since the 1997 handover of the territory to the People’s Republic of China. On Thursday, the National People’s Congress (NPC), China’s top legislature, approved a draft decision to pursue enacting new national security legislation by a vote of 2,878-1, at its annual session in Beijing, with six abstentions. Over the past few days, there’s been a spate of demonstrations and crackdowns in the city amid concerns that the new legislation would be the end of Hong Kong’s autonomy.

How Covid-19 Changes the Geopolitics of Semiconductor Supply Chains

On May 15, Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Company (TSMC) — a semiconductor manufacturing behemoth that makes Apple’s A-series chips — announced its plans to build a $12 billion plant in the state of Arizona. On the same day, it was reported that TSMC has stopped taking new orders from Huawei to fully comply with the latest export control regulation imposed by the US. These are significant shifts in the semiconductor industry. We have an analysis of why these changes are happening and more importantly, why are they happening now.We argue that the economics of semiconductors — turbocharged by efficient and lean global supply chains — has made it a viable geopolitical tool. The US-China confrontation over Huawei is just one manifestation of this confrontation over semiconductors. COVID-19 only exacerbates this contestation. We evaluate four specific risks and write that COVID-19 will change the resilience-efficiency trade-off in the semiconductor industry. National governments and the geopolitical environment will be the key drivers of this transformation.The full article can be read on South China Morning Post here.

China has definitely crossed India’s Lakshman rekha but it won’t lead to 1962 again

Is this going to be another 1962?’ asked my neighbour, an 80-year-old naval veteran. ‘Not at all,’ was my instinctive reply, not because I had any special insight into the ongoing military situation in Ladakh, but because 1962-type wars now linger only in military imagination and tend to get confined largely to the dustbin of history. In reality, due to the shadow of nuclear weapons, the remote possibility of such ‘big fights’ tenant the deterrence space that keeps militaries armed with the state-of-the-art weapons system.You can find the article here

On Trump's Offer to Mediate Between India and China

The Print’s daily roundtable TalkPoint posed a question connected to the US President Donald Trump's offer to mediate between India and China over the “raging border dispute": Does Trump help or harm India’s interests when he offers to mediate with China, Pakistan?My response:

US President Donald Trump’s offer to mediate is a needless distraction in the grand scheme of things.Assessing what the US foreign policy would be like based on Trump’s offer to mediate on Twitter is a risky exercise. Often, there is a considerable gap between the two, like in the case of Afghanistan.Officially, the White House released a report on 20 May that said in no uncertain terms that Beijing “flouts its commitments to its neighbours by engaging in provocative and coercive military and paramilitary activities in the Yellow Sea, the East and South China Seas, the Taiwan Strait, and Sino-Indian border areas.” We can only guess whether Trump’s latest offer to mediate follows as a result of this understanding.Nevertheless, India’s position on such offers has been consistent — it intends to solve such disputes bilaterally and not through third party mediation. China is not likely to accept any such offers of mediation either. Hence, it would help the Indian and American interests both, a lot more if the US and India work together to build capacity to resist Beijing’s coercive and arrogant approach to border disputes.The case with Pakistan is also similar. The border dispute there is just one issue in a consistently strained India-Pakistan relationship. In fact, the US support to the Pakistani military-jihadi complex over the years has made this problem even more difficult. Here again, it would help the Indian and the US interests a lot more if the US adopts an overall strategic stance that sees Pakistan as a part of the problem.

You can read the full conversation on ThePrint. here. 

Flashpoints on the Periphery: Understanding China’s Neighborhood Opportunism

How is China taking advantage of the pandemic to pursue its foreign policy goals?

Tensions in China’s periphery have increased dramatically over the past few months as Beijing stepped up the use of military and diplomatic tools within its neighborhood. The frequency of the events involving Chinese actors, especially in the second half of March, increased as normalcy started returning to the mainland after the COVID-19 pandemic’s outbreak.This raises a few questions. First, is this evidence of China’s opportunism at a time when the United States is struggling to maintain its presence in the East and Southeast Asian regions? Second, has Beijing adopted a more aggressive approach for the post-pandemic period? Third, would the recent spike in activities impact the regional order?Read more

This article was originally published in The Diplomat.

How India can end Chinese transgressions: Take conflict to a place Beijing is worried about

How should India respond to another surge in Chinese transgressions at several places along our Himalayan frontiers? Over the past 15 years or so, strategic analysts have recommended two diametrically opposite approaches.

The first, advocated by sober defence traditionalists and by hawks, is that we should hold the line along the Himalayas and escalate the conflict if we have to. They point out that Indian troops enjoy favourable positions in many places, and our strength has been bolstered over the past 10 years with more mountain forces and better infrastructure and equipment. The objective of this approach, they contend, is to make the Chinese realise that they can’t ‘win’ this game.

Read more

The PLA Insight: Issue no 52

I. The Takshashila Assessment: Impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese Armed ForcesThe People's Liberation Army played a prominent role in the Chinese leadership's effort to deal with the COVID-19 outbreak. Starting late January, China deployed thousands of PLA medics on the frontlines of Wuhan and Hubei province to help fight the outbreak. Besides the PLA, PAP and militia also aided in infrastructure building and provision of essential supplies. The PLA, in a press conference, claimed that there had been no cases of infection among the ranks of the deployed personnel.My colleague and the head of China Studies Programme at the Takshashila Institution, Manoj Kewalramani, and I decided to examine this claim. We are happy to share our latest document on the impact of COVID-19 on the Chinese armed forces.We study four aspects:Read more...

Omar Sheikh: If Not Daniel Pearl, a Trail With Links to ISI, 9/11 Mastermind and Bin Laden

Was it a coincidence or was it purposely timed for when everyone was too busy worrying about the Covid-19 crisis?Last week, the Sindh High Court overturned, citing a lack of evidence, the conviction of Ahmed Omar Saeed Sheikh on charges of murdering Daniel Pearl. It, however, found him guilty of a lesser charge of kidnapping and sentenced him to seven years in prison.Omar Sheikh, who has been in custody since 2002, will be released as the sentence for kidnapping will be deemed to have been completed.In India he’s remembered as one of the three terrorists released at Kandahar after the hijacking of IC 814. The other key figure released with him was Maulana Masood Azhar who went on to found the Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM)...Read the full article on The Telegraph India here.

Xinjiang in danger of severe Covid-19 outbreak

The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the Covid-19 outbreak a pandemic this week. That designation implies an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, affecting a large number of people.The Chinese government initially tried to conceal the severity of the problem by hiding facts about the outbreak, which in turn contributed to the spread of the virus across the world. But the state machinery swung into action on January 23 by quarantining Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province, where the outbreak was first observed. Some cities on the east coast were also partially locked down as the number of cases increased.Though a lot of effort has gone into containing the spread of the virus across China, the situation in the westernmost Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, which is one of the most vulnerable regions for reasons detailed below, remains largely ignored and underreported.

The article was originally published in Asia Times

COVID-19 & China: Crisis to opportunity

Three events last week underscore how the narrative has shifted around China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak. The first of these is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Wuhan, which coincided with the country’s health authorities confirming that the outbreak had peaked there. Second, the World Health Organisation’s declaration of Covid-19 as a pandemic for which the epicentre had shifted to Europe. And third, the Donald Trump administration’s initial ham-handed response to the outbreak in the US.Read the full article in Deccan Herald here

US-तालिबान समझौते से शांति की कितनी उम्मीद और भारत की चिंताएं?

अमेरिका और तालिबान के बीच शनिवार, 29 फरवरी, को कतर में शांति समझौते पर हस्ताक्षर हुए। इसके मुताबिक, अमेरिका 14 महीने में अफगानिस्तान से अपने सैनिक हटाएगा। इससे हो सकता है कि अमेरिका का सबसे लम्बा युद्ध शायद ख़त्म हो जाए. इस वक़्त अफ़ग़निस्तान में अमेरिका, जर्मनी और ब्रिटेन समेत 38 देशों की सेनाएं हैं. अब इन में से अमेरिका की 8000 से ज़्यादा सैनिक है जिन्हे इस पैक्ट के मुताबिक़ अब अपना बोरिया बिस्तर उठा कर वापस अपने घर जाना होगा.

इस पैक्ट की दूसरी ख़ास बात है 'तालिबान कमिटमेंट' - ये कमिटमेंट कहता है कि 'तालिबान अपने किसी भी सदस्य, या किसी दूसरे व्यक्ति या संगठन को, जिनमें अल-क़ायदा भी है, को अमेरिका और उसके सहयोगियों की सुरक्षा के लिए खतरा नहीं बनने देगा, और इस के लिए अफ़ग़निस्तान की ज़मीन का इस्तेमाल नहीं करने देगा.

लेकिन क्या वाकई इस समझौते से शांति की उम्मीद की जा सकती है? और इस समझौते का भारत के लिए क्या मतलब है?

Listen in to this episode of The Big Story Hindi Podcast by The Quint featuring Pranay Kotasthane.

https://audioboom.com/posts/7519553

India's Troops in Afghanistan: An Old Request in a New Context

Boots on the ground are secondary; India's key objective in Afghanistan should be to help the Islamic Republic of Afghanistan claim a monopoly over the legitimate use of physical force. India can contribute a lot towards the capacity building of the Afghan National Defence and Security Forces (ANDSF). The biggest challenges it currently faces are related to the decline in the quality of human resources at hand, rather than a shortage of financial resources.Read the full article on The Telegraph here.

Expect China to intensify pressure campaign after Tsai Ing-wen’s victory

Cross-strait ties are likely to get far more frosty, with serious implications for the security dynamic in East Asia, after Tsai Ing-wen’s victory in Taiwan’s presidential election.In many ways, Saturday’s was a historic election. Nearly 75 percent of the 19.31 million eligible voters cast their ballot, with Tsai bagging over 57 percent of the vote. Her nearest rival, the Kuomintang’s (KMT) Han Kuo-yu, could only manage 38.6 percent of the vote. Also elected were 113 new members to Taiwan’s legislature, the Legislative Yuan. Tsai’s pro-independence leaning Democratic Progressive Party (DPP) lost seven seats in the legislature but managed to retain its majority, winning 61. The KMT, on the other hand, gained three seats, increasing its 2016 tally to 38.Read the full article in The Indian Express.

The Battle in Pakistan’s Military-Jihadi Complex

Contrary to popular belief, Pakistan's military-jihadi complex (MJC) has not been brought to its knees by Balakot, Uri, or even FATF. India's actions in Kashmir, for example, have provided the MJC with the perfect excuse to interfere as it does best. The reason for its current quiet is internal political turmoil connected to COAS Bajwa. India can ill-afford to take it for granted.For more, read The Telegraph Online.

4 Lessons for India From China’s October 2019 Military Parade

With the People’s Republic of China (PRC) marking its 70th founding anniversary on October 1, the grand military parade at Tiananmen Square was the highlight of the celebrations. It showcased China’s newer arms, ammunition, and technology. Over 15,000 personnel, 160 aircraft, and 580 pieces of military equipment participated in the military parade, including sophisticated weaponry such as hypersonic missiles, intercontinental-range land and submarine-launched ballistic missiles, stealth combat and high-speed reconnaissance drones, and fifth-generation fighter jets.China intended to address both domestic and international audiences through this parade. At home, the leadership hoped that the parade would stir up feelings of nationalism. Internationally, the display of force was intended as a warning to the United States and China’s neighbors. Further, the parade reflected the People’s Liberation Army’s (PLA) progress toward becoming a “world-class military” by 2050.Although policymakers and military leaders across the world were keeping a close eye on China’s military display, perhaps those in India should have been paying the most attention. The parade was not directed at India, but New Delhi can learn a lot from China’s use of military modernization and its ongoing defense reforms. Here are four key lessons New Delhi can take from China’s 2019 military parade. Read more...

Should India be bolder with China?

India’s response to China’s diplomatic offensive of recent years has been inconsistent and sporadic. Using diplomatic tools in an institutionalised way to highlight China’s vulnerabilities is something India refrains from. This, despite China’s increased diplomatic activism against India. For instance, China raised the dilution of Article 370 in the United Nations Security Council on behalf of Pakistan. It has repeatedly blocked India’s entry into the 48-member Nuclear Supplier Group. It also took over 10 years to sponsor the blacklisting of Masood Azhar as a UN-designated global terrorist.India should not refrain from developing diplomatic leverages and using them against China, whenever required. It should issue statements on China’s “re-education camps” in Xinjiang, its activities in the South China Sea which impact India, and Hong Kong protests. It could also occasionally use Tibet as an irritant like China uses Kashmir. All of these with the presumption that India has improved its border infrastructure to at least maintain status quo in case of escalation of tensions. Read more...

How to respond to an 'intelligent' PLA

Advancements in Artificial Intelligence (AI) technologies over the next decade will have a profound impact on the nature of warfare. Increasing use of precision weapons, training simulations and unmanned vehicles are merely the tip of the iceberg. AI technologies, going forward, will not only have a direct battlefield impact in terms of weapons and equipment but will also impact planning, logistics and decision-making, requiring new ethical and doctrinal thinking. From an Indian perspective, China’s strategic focus on leveraging AI has serious national security implications.Read the full article on the Deccan Herald website.

The PLA Insight: Issue no 29

I. The Big Story: PLA in Hong KongThe People’s Liberation Army soldiers were spotted cleaning-up the Hong Kong’s streets last week. Their presence raised concerns in China’s autonomous region. Social media feeds showed men in green and black uniforms with Chinese flags on their shoulders, “voluntarily clearing the streets.” Although several thousands of the PLA soldiers are located in Hong Kong’s PLA Garrison, they are rarely seen outside their barracks. Hong Kong government stated that it had not requested the Garrison’s assistance. The Chinese soldiers’ efforts to clear the roadblocks were “purely a voluntary community activity initiated by themselves.” The clean-up came after one of the most intense weeks of the anti-government protests. Read more...

India will be watching the new Rajapaksa regime closely

Sri Lanka’s geo-strategic location will continue to attract foreign powers like China and the United States (US) and therefore the tussle between them is likely to be played out in Sri Lanka. In this context, India’s ability to shape Sri Lankan policies will be tested. Moreover, how Gotabaya Rajapaksa engages with China will also be watchedSri Lanka is probably the most significant state in the evolving Indian Ocean geopolitics. Therefore, political trajectory of this island nation under the new dispensation will definitely determine the course of security competition in the Indian Ocean.Read Sankalp Gurjar's article here.

India’s road to RCEP laden with China-related obstacles

Ten years ago, the question was whether India and China should sign a bilateral free trade agreement (FTA). Today, it is whether India should join the Regional Comprehensive Economic Partnership (RCEP). There are two different but interconnected issues: the dominance of Chinese manufacturers in the export of goods; and the impenetrability of the Chinese market to Indian and other foreign companies. On the other hand, joining the RCEP might compel New Delhi to launch the second-generation economic reforms.Read more