Commentary
Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy
How India Should Respond to Trump’s Barbs on Afghanistan
An article on Trump's barbs that India is only building 'libraries' in Afghanistan. We find that though conveyed crudely, there is some truth in his argument - India has not done much since August 2017 when Trump announced his previous Afghanistan approach. So we look at some options for India on the security, political, and cultural fronts in this piece. Finally, it is for India’s own national interest that we need to do a lot more and help build a strong, resilient, democratic and peaceful Afghanistan.Read more on TheWire.in
The three elements of China’s innovation model
In November 2018, the New York Times published a series that began with a story titled, The Land that Failed to Fail. The central argument of the piece is that defying Western expectations, the Communist Party has maintained its control in China while adopting elements of capitalism, eschewing political liberalisation, and pursuing innovation. The last of these three — innovation — is the subject of this piece.What drives innovation in China? This is not merely a question about the mechanics of policy, the might of capital, the determination of dogged entrepreneurs, or the brilliance that is conjured up in university dormitories. Increasingly, it is a question that has acquired geopolitical significance, not just in the context of power politics but also in the debate over fundamental values about the political and economic organisation. In other words, the question that China’s march towards becoming a “country of innovators” raises is whether a political system that prioritises control can foster genuine innovation.Answering this requires an understanding of the key elements of the Chinese model of innovation. To my mind, there are three key components of this model—state support, a systems approach towards the development of new technologies and businesses, and building an effective “bird-cage.” There are, of course, other factors like the pursuit of prestige, the desire to rebalance the economy, the need to enhance the effectiveness of governance, and the size of the consumer market, which supports innovation. But it is the first three components that form the key pillars of China’s innovation model.Read More...
We Live in Multiple Neighbourhoods
2018 was the year when India looked beyond Pakistan and South Asia. Let 2019 be the year when India reimagines itself as an important node in several neighbourhoods.Read the full article on Pragati here.
All Roads Lead to the Middle Kingdom
In January 2017, Chinese President Xi Jinping stood at the podium in Davos defending economic globalisation. He argued that the world needed to “adapt to and guide economic globalisation, cushion its negative impact, and deliver its benefits to all countries and all nations.” And in this process, “China’s development is an opportunity for the world.” All of this was, of course, in the backdrop of the beginning of Donald Trump’s presidency in the US.Addressing deputies at the National People’s Congress in March 2018, Xi doubled down on that message: "China will contribute more Chinese wisdom, Chinese solutions, and Chinese strength to the world, to push for building an open, inclusive, clean, and beautiful world that enjoys lasting peace, universal security, and common prosperity. Let the sunshine of a community with a shared future for humanity illuminate the world!"Both of those speeches reflected strength. The essential message they conveyed was that the world needed China. And under Xi, China now was surer about its destiny and keener than ever to play a larger international role. Yet as 2018 unfolded, this narrative came under severe strain. To assess how, we need to look at three dimensions: Xi’s status as the core of the Communist Party, the pushback against BRI, and the deepening competition with the US. It is the interplay of these three that is shaping China’s future.Read More...
Soft Power Is Not Power
‘Soft power’ is overrated. In India, it is over-celebrated too. The idea enjoys support across the political spectrum: Shashi Tharoor is an articulate proponent, and so is Venkaiah Naidu. Everything from Indian films, cricket, cuisine, yoga, spirituality, and the insufferable television soap operas are claimed to be elements of India’s soft power.After all the self-congratulation is done with, there’s little empirical evidence to show that all these things actually constitute some form of ‘power’; and if they do, that India can do something with it.Indeed, if soft power were something, the governments of our immediate neighbours ought to have been favourably inclined towards us. After all, on a per capita basis, it is perhaps the people of Nepal, Bhutan, Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, Maldives, and Pakistan who are the foreign consumers of India’s cultural exports. Yet, even if they like Indian films, music, and celebrities, popular attitudes and their governmental policies towards India are not reflective of that warmth. Further afield, the richer states of the Arabian Gulf and South East Asia might well watch our films and dance to our music but have a condescending view of Indians and India. For all the praise of our soft power, its effect is negligible in the manner in which foreign countries vote on important national issues.Read more
India needs an action plan after US troops leave Afghanistan
Donald Trump is under heavy criticism for ordering a withdrawal of US troops from Syria and Afghanistan. Whatever you might say about the manner in which he made and announced his decisions, on Afghanistan at least, he is not wrong.If you look at it from an American perspective, it’s hard to explain why US troops are still in Afghanistan. Bin Laden is done, al-Qaeda has been nearly decimated, and an Afghan government the US midwife has been in power for several years now. The government controls only around 60 per cent of the country and the Taliban have been growing stronger over the past couple of years. The cultivation and export of narcotics have also been growing.No one, however, can credibly argue that if the US continues to remain in the country, the security situation will improve in the next three, five, or ten years. After 17 years, hundreds of lives lost, over a trillion dollars already spent, and an annual budget of hundreds of billions of dollars, the question is whether the cost of staying is worth the benefits. It is reasonable for a thoughtful American to conclude that now is a better time to pull troops out of Afghanistan than later.Read more
An insider look into what Russia actually thinks of India
Last week, several members of India and Russia’s think tank community sat down for two days of conversation in Moscow. Since so much of our knowledge on Russian affairs comes filtered either through the prism of Western reportage or through pro-establishment Russian media, engaging in closed-door discussions with leading intellectuals and policy influencers was particularly valuable. Here are some of my impressions after participating in the talks.First, what came across quite clearly is that the Russian establishment sees itself in a state of siege. US sanctions have raised international pressure on the country — even if the Russians are loath to admit it — and are pushing Moscow into greater isolation. Consequently, the paranoia of the siege mentality colours both elite and popular perceptions of international events. So the Russians might see, say, India’s closer engagement of the United States, Australia, and Japan, in the form of the Quad, as partly inimical to their own interests. They are aware but do not give too much credence to the argument that the Quad is part of India’s effort to manage China’s rising power in our extended neighbourhood.Read more
China and the Kerch Strait
The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine following Sunday’s incident in the Kerch Strait. According to the Ukrainian Navy, Russian forces fired upon its vessels, injuring at least three sailors. Russian forces then reportedly captured three Ukrainian vessels along with 23 crew members. Moscow claims the vessels had entered Russian waters, failed to follow laid down protocols, and engaged in “provocative” actions.During Monday’s meeting in New York, Nikki Haley, the US’s UN representative, described the incident as a case of “reckless Russian escalation” and “aggression.” European Council President Donald Tusk has assured that the EU stands united behind Ukraine. In contrast, China’s deputy permanent representative to the UN Wu Haitao called for “restraint” and emphasised the Chinese approach of “objectivity and impartiality” in relation to Russia-Ukraine tensions. Wu further added that “China respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries including Ukraine.” Wu’s remarks underscore the delicate balance that Beijing is seeking to strike in terms of deepening its ties with Russia while distancing itself from Putin’s foreign policy adventurism. In this context, Sunday’s incident presents Beijing with a set of pitfalls and opportunities.Read More
India will stay relevant in Afghanistan, Taliban or no Taliban
The way ahead for India rests on reconciling Indian interests with the recent changes in the political landscape, many of which are outside Indian control. The turning global tide against Pakistan’s policy of using terror gives India some breathing space. It should participate in political processes in order to add weight to the demands of India's friends in Afghanistan. Beyond this supplementary role, there is little that India has to gain from starting new peace processes. India's comparative advantage in Afghanistan comes from its contribution to state capacity building and economic development and for this reason alone it will continue to stay relevant in Afghanistan, Taliban or no Taliban.
The action is fast and furious. Taliban representatives have attended peace talks in Moscow for the first time. Almost simultaneously, the US special envoy has broken a taboo and opened direct talks with the Taliban office in Qatar. Pakistan has released one of the founding members of the Taliban after eight years. In Afghanistan itself, a US general has been wounded in a Taliban attack and there are daily reports of the ever-increasing numbers of Afghans getting killed by Taliban terrorists.Such is the fluid state of political affairs in Afghanistan today that these highly divergent events are all unfolding concurrently.Amidst all these fast-moving political developments, it was the Moscow round of talks that attracted the most attention in India. India has consistently maintained that it supports an Afghan-led and Afghan-owned reconciliation process. So, sending retired diplomats as observers at the Moscow round of talks naturally sparked speculation that India was reversing its policy on Afghanistan. Interestingly, some commentators have, in the past, accused India of doing exactly the opposite — blocking attempts by the Afghan government to negotiate with elements such as the Taliban.Read more here>
The Xinjiang Playbook
Over the past few months, there has been a growing chorus of international criticism focussed on the Chinese government’s crackdown on Uygur Muslims in the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region. To blunt this outcry, the Communist Party has adopted a set of measures ranging from denial, obfuscation to opinion management.
To blunt criticism about its policies in the Xinjiang region, the Chinese Communist Party has adopted a set of measures ranging from denial to opinion management.
A cursory scan through Chinese State media talks about the Xinjiang Uygur Autonomous Region as a place that’s becoming more secure, where tourism is booming, infrastructure is getting upgraded and poverty is reducing. That’s the Xinjiang that Beijing wants the world to talk about. Unfortunately for the Chinese leadership, that hasn’t been the case over the past few months.In mid-August, experts from the UN Committee on the Elimination of Racial Discrimination questioned the policies adopted by the Chinese Party-state with regard to the Uighur population in Xinjiang. Members of the committee argued that there had been credible reports that, “upwards of a million people were being held in so-called counter-extremism centres and another two million had been forced into so-called ‘re-education camps’ for political and cultural indoctrination.” All this, of course, is being done in the name of stability and combating extremism and terrorism.Situated in northwestern China bordering the stans to the west, Xinjiang is home to over 11.3 million ethnic Uighurs. These are largely Muslims of Turkic origin, who have their own language and culture. The region is also home to roughly one-third of China’s natural gas and oil reserves, along with key mineral deposits. In addition, Xinjiang is the Belt and Road Initiative’s gateway to the West. Given this, stability and integration i.e. policing and sinicisation, have been key planks of the Communist Party’s policies in Xinjiang. These assumed greater significance as the security situation in the region deteriorated early in President Xi Jinping’s first term and in the backdrop of the escalating conflict in Syria.Read more here>
The many ways India must NOT think about China
One of the positive trends in India’s think tank community in the past few years is the emergence of institutes that aim to study China. Last week, journalist Nitin Gokhale reported that the ministry of external affairs has set up a new think tank that includes members from intelligence, defence, and trade. The higher education system has invested in setting up a few new centres that will observe and analyse China from various perspectives and purposes. This ought to have started at least a decade ago, but better late than never.Many educated Indians can name at least half a dozen states of the United States and their respective capitals. Bengaluru and Hyderabad are likely to score higher on this test. However, even among the more informed Indians, it is hard to find people who can name a few Chinese provinces. Similarly, a lot of Indians know excruciating details about the US political system, can identify US administration officials, senators, and governors. But few will know the name of a third Chinese leader after President Xi Jinping and Premier Li Keqiang. Language, openness, and greater people-to-people interaction are perhaps responsible for this asymmetry, but it is astonishing – and a matter of concern – that an average well-informed Indian knows relatively little about the big neighbour to our north. Our knowledge of China is dangerously inverse to the country’s importance to us.Read more
China’s big plan for AI domination is dazzling the world, but it has dangers built in. Here’s what India needs to watch out for.
China has been one of the early movers in the AI space, and evaluating its approach to AI development can help identify important lessons and pitfalls that Indian policy makers and entrepreneurs must keep in mind.
Why there is an increasingly global pushback against China…
For some strange reason, many people in the world believe that China’s leaders are astute but inscrutable strategists, with an unusual ability to both think long-term and do long-term. Why do I say strange? Well, look at the scorecard as it stands today.
First, from well before the global financial crisis of 2008, China had begun deliberately antagonising every single one of its large neighbours and bullying the smaller ones. This pushed countries from as far as North America, Australia, the Western Pacific, and the Indian subcontinent together into a closer embrace. Now, these happen to include the world’s strongest military, economic and technological powers.
Democracy Strikes Back in the Maldives
A shrinking Chinese footprint in the neighbourhood is ideal for India, and New Delhi should send a clear message indicating that it will stand by the democratically-elected leadership, and not shy away from providing assistance when asked.Read more
After Abdulla Yameen, Maldives must now untangle the web of Chinese contracts
It looks like a fairytale ending. The people of the Maldives came together in large numbers and threw the tyrant out.Let’s make no bones about it: Abdulla Yameen, the man who was ousted this weekend and the Maldives’ incumbent president, is every bit of the bad guy of the story. He came to power under shady circumstances, indulged in an ‘orgy of corruption’, not least by selling out his country’s islands; was involved in refuelling North Korean ships in violation of United Nations sanctions; encouraged misogyny, and otherwise presided over a repressive regime that jailed or exiled every significant independent voice.Read more
The Fallout of US Tariffs
Tariffs and other protectionist measures from the US have injected bitterness into its relationship with many countries and India is no exception to this.
However, if the current trend of protectionism in the US extends to other goods such as pharmaceuticals, or to services such as software, the US faces the prospect of losing this support base. Further, if the US were to lose the support from the south, the India-US relationship will again be seen largely from the prism of the Pakistan factor and the economic partnership will have to take a backseat.
The India—US defence partnership will also be weakened if trade barriers hinder the relationship between the two countries. Purchasing defence equipment is a strategic decision, not a transactional one for India. The risk of being overly dependent on foreign powers can be mitigated if we procure military equipment from countries with which we have extensive economic ties. However, if general trade between the US and India suffers due to increasing tariffs, defense procurement from the US would no longer serve a strategic purpose and India will lose the strategic leverage that comes from being able to favour a country that can give us something more than just military equipment.
Finally, tariffs will also affect business and investment decisions. Given the particular state of global finance, with increasing inflation in the US (partially caused by increased import costs) and higher interest rates as a result, the flow of portfolio and direct investment from the US to India will reduce. With India’s banking sector facing a severe crunch due to the high amount of non-performing assets, the need for private sources of funding for Indian companies will be acute. Simultaneously, China is continuously looking for opportunities to invest abroad, as witnessed by its aggressive buying of assets in other countries. The void that will be left by the US will be readily filled by China, and that is an outcome that neither the US nor India will be too keen to witness.
India must not hurry Narendra Modi into a summit with Imran Khan
It has been reported that the Pakistani army chief quietly reached out to India a few months ago “to open barriers to trade between the countries, which would give Pakistan more access to regional markets”. Given the dire economic situation Pakistan is in, good neighbourliness is anyway in Prime Minister Imran Khan’s interests at this time.But every time a new government comes to power in India or Pakistan, people start expecting dramatic progress in bilateral relations. Not just common people, but even old hands put hope ahead of experience and start pushing up expectations of thaw, progress, breakthrough, or even some kind of resolution of disputes.This doesn’t make sense because bilateral relations are not the way they are because of the personalities, preferences, or political ideologies of the elected leaders on either side. It’s not as if Narendra Modi or Imran Khan, massively popular as they are in their respective countries, can set aside what happened in the past, ignore the other players in the game and their respective calculations of gains and losses, and simply strike a deal.Read more
Mahathir rocks (Xi's boat)
I wish to report to you, dear reader, that Mahathir Mohammed, Malaysia’s remarkable nonagenarian prime minister, has proved me right. That’s one more reason for you to read the Asian Balance regularly. You will recall I’d argued that China’s massive Belt and Road infrastructure investments will be resisted by forces of nationalism extant in Asian countries.Read more
Imran Khan’s existential crisis in Pakistan: To cut or not to cut defence expenditure
Last week, when the US government announced it would “re-programme” $300 million in military assistance to Pakistan, it was only the latest in a series of actions that have ratcheted up pressure on Islamabad.A year ago, when US President Donald Trump announced his Afghanistan strategy, Pakistan came in for mention only in the context of his pledge to put more pressure on the country. Trump’s tweet on the first day of this year set the tone: the US has been foolish in giving Pakistan more than $33 billion over the past 15 years, “receiving only lies and deceit” in return. In an indication of his priorities, Trump blamed Pakistan for giving safe haven to the very terrorists that the US troops were fighting in Afghanistan. “No more!” he thundered.His administration has stuck to this line since then. Even as the Pakistani economy hurtled towards a deeper crisis, Washington has remained unsympathetic. For the first time in years, the Trump administration suspended a military education and training programme and excluded over 60 Pakistani military officers from various US defence academies. The financial cost of suspending this programme was trivial, but the signal was massive and aimed directly at the Pakistani military establishment.Read more
Trump's gamble, China's gain
US President Donald Trump's unilateralism in East Asia is increasingly benefiting China. Xi Jinping’s approach, in contrast is furthering the broader narrative of a China that is open to deeper multilateral engagement.
Trump's unilateralism in East Asia increasingly benefits China.
On his way home from the Singapore summit, US President Donald Trump announced in an interview for Fox News that he would be taking strong action on trade, saying that China was likely to be "a little bit upset". And indeed, three days later his administration slapped Chinese goods with a 25-percent tariff, provoking a sharp reaction from Beijing.That was despite China's support and assistance with the North Korea issue in the lead-up to the Singapore summit. For Trump, trade disputes, multilateral engagement, and the denuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula appear to be distinct, unrelated issues. In his unilateral world, there is little connection between geoeconomics and geopolitics.Chinese President Xi Jinping has adopted a completely different approach to global politics and economy, which seems to be paying off with every unilateral action Trump takes on the international arena. This seems to be the case with the US engagement of North Korea as well.Read more here>