Commentary

Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy

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Let’s insist on full disclosure and consent for AI and algorithm use

By Nitin Pai

One of the many recent mysteries is why hundreds of extremely intelligent and rich people think that a moratorium on further development of artificial intelligence is feasible, or that a six month hiatus is sufficient for us to figure out what to do about it. Technology development is a ‘prisoner’s dilemma’ with millions of competing participants making it impossible to get everyone to cooperate. Top-tier competitors are more likely to cheat on the moratorium in the expectation that others will do so, which will render such as moratorium useless, and worse, drive the industry underground.

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We mustn’t let young minds live in constant fear of an apocalypse

By Nitin Pai

Prominent ‘tech bros’ are now predicting a catastrophic financial crisis in the US leading to hyperinflation and apocalypse. It’s funny how people who took zero interest rates for granted, made fantastic predictions about techno-utopias but failed to plan for something as predictable as changes in interest rates are now forecasting the end of the world as we know it. They are not alone.

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For India’s AI ambitions, the time to act is now

By Shailesh Chitnis

On May 17, 2017, AlphaGo, an Artificial Intelligence (AI) system built by Google’s DeepMind, defeated Ke Jie, China’s leading player in the board game, Go. In his book AI Superpowers, Kai-Fu Lee cites this as the seminal moment in China’s AI awakening. Considered the hardest game to master, Go’s dominance by a computer roused the government into action. Within a few months, Beijing announced plans to dominate AI by 2030.

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Driving Big Tech out of India would be a mistake

By Shailesh Chitnis

When two senior government ministers launched India's first homegrown mobile operating system at a ceremony last month, they hailed the project for its potential to bust monopolies without mentioning any particular one. They did not have to. While most attempts at creating a new mobile operating system fail, the government's clear intention was to put Google on notice by championing an unproven local alternative. The search giant, whose Android software powers more than 95% of smartphones in India, has been facing increased scrutiny in one of its largest markets.

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Challengers of Big Tech’s sway on the internet won’t have it easy

By Nitin Pai

Writing about competing visions for the future of the internet in a column at the turn of 2022, I argued that two of the much-hyped contenders, the metaverse and web3, appeared far fetched. It is hard to imagine everyone wearing virtual-reality goggles to engage with the internet, crypto is too complicated, and both are costly ways to access the global network. Last year was somewhere between a wake-up call and a devastating setback for promoters of 3-D metaverses and crypto services, with lower profits, higher interest rates and scandals delivering the due reality checks.

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Why we shouldn’t copy-paste EU’s ‘one nation, one charger’ policy

By Pranay Kotasthane

A common mistake in public policy is the inability to confront trade-offs. Every government policy seems well-intentioned, nice-sounding, and welfare-enhancing. The union consumer affairs ministry’s recent moves towards a ‘one nation, one charging port’ for all electronic devices (except for wearables) demonstrates the need to be wary of intuitive solutions to complex policy problems.

India is following the European Union example here, which has banned all chargers except USB-C from 2024. The intent is two-fold—reducing consumer inconvenience because of multiple chargers. And two, reducing e-waste. Lofty goals. Who could say these aren’t problems that need to be solved?

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Technological power in today’s world is much too concentrated

By Nitin Pai

You don’t have to be a Luddite to have serious misgivings about brain implants. There certainly are beneficial uses, but once brain-computer interfaces become commercially available, we can neither predict nor control what they will end up being used for. There is a risk we will rapidly and thoughtlessly end up changing what it means to be human. With only an indirect interface to the human brain, social media networks have profoundly transformed human society. We are still discovering how pervasive information networks influence human cognition, but we already know enough to be concerned about the impact on rational thinking and collective opinion formation.

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Theatre commands to defence university, why Indian security interests need a political push

By Lt. Gen. Prakash Menon

Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s clarion call for Atmanirbhar Bharat in May 2020 made self-reliance a policy goal for the Ministry of Defence. Despite decades of effort, India’s defence industrial ecosystem has failed to achieve substantive progress and indigenous research, development and production capabilities remain a challenge. Time will reveal whether the slogan has been matched by accomplishment. However, even if Atmanirbhartha is accomplished to any acceptable degree, India’s military effectiveness will require the fulfilment of two other crucial reform initiatives – defence university and theatre commands.

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India must dominate the game of chips - through its Human Resources

By Nitin Pai

Washington’s wide-ranging sanctions on China’s semiconductor industry will go far in containing the US’s geopolitical rival. Not only will they set China’s chip makers back by years, but also restrict the country’s progress in several areas, from personal computers to data centres, from artificial intelligence (AI) systems to hypersonic missiles. This may well be America’s most consequential move in the ongoing contest among global powers.

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An ‘everything’ app is a nightmare for our freedoms

By Nitin Pai

Monopoly, the board game, is often held up as a demonstration of capitalism, teaching us how business works. Actually, it does more than that. While it is true that a budding capitalist’s goal is to grab as large a market share as possible, the game shows that allowing a player to do so is bad for society as a whole. Now there is nothing wrong in a business person seeking a monopoly. It is for society—through its political institutions—to protect its broader interests and check monopolistic tendencies through public policy.

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Securing India’s Cyberspace from Quantum Techniques

By Arjun Gargeyas and Sameer Patil

Last month, there were reports that the Indian Army is developing cryptographic techniques to make its networks resistant to attacks by systems with quantum capabilities. The Army has collaborated with industry and academia to build secure communications and cryptography applications. This step builds on last year’s initiative to establish a quantum computing laboratory at the military engineering institute in Mhow, Madhya Pradesh. With traditional encryption models at risk and increasing military applications of quantum technology, the deployment of “quantum-resistant” systems has become the need of the hour.

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How the TTC Agreement with the EU can help India shape Global Tech Ecosystems

By Arjun Gargeyas

Earlier this year, Prime Minister Narendra Modi met with the European Union President Ursula von der Leyen and announced the setting up of the India-EU Trade and Technology Council (TTC). The joint statement released by the two leaders on the launch of the council described the TTC as a body that was responsible for the “strategic coordination mechanism [that] will allow both partners to tackle challenges at the nexus of trade, trusted technology and security, and thus deepen cooperation in these fields between the EU and India”. Since the official press release of the TTC, there have been no more follow-up announcements or movement on the front. This has raised questions about how the Council should function and its role in determining the technology trade agreements between the two entities. What would be the methods of cooperation and the focus areas for India and the EU? These still remain to be answered and delved into.

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India needs a Holistic and Effective ‘Techplomacy’ Strategy

By Arjun Gargeyas

Technological advancements in the 21st Century have heightened the role of technology in the diplomacy arena. Technically adept nation-states are developing their own strategies to integrate technology with their foreign policy and diplomatic initiatives. But how can technology be used as a credible diplomatic plank by the Indian State to further its national and geopolitical interests? The Indian state needs to address the ability to utilise technology as a credible foreign policy and diplomacy tool.

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How India Can Use Technology as a Strategic Tool to Advance Its Interests

By Arjun Gargeyas

In the current Information Age, technology has become a ubiquitous part of every country’s society. Citizens are empowered in a wide range of ways with improved access to technology, states’ economic sectors are transitioning into the digital space, and tech development has been outpacing regulations and governance regularly. This is the era where technology is becoming a strategic tool for the state to drive growth and protect its interests. India, as a fledgling and rising technological power, has the ability to leverage technology for the greater good. The Indian state should now start viewing technology and its adoption from a more strategic lens. But how can India use ‘technology’ to tackle existing problems as well as try to deploy it as a prospective solution in key areas of governance?

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How India Can Use Its G-20 Presidency To Build A Techno-Democratic Alliance

By Arjun Gargeyas

In the year 2023, India will have the opportunity to preside over one of the key international alliances, i.e. G-20. The G-20 remains an elite group of economically and technologically developed nations which control the global economy in the current scenario. India’s presidency next year offers an opportunity for the government to set critical agendas for the group. One of the key areas that India can focus on as part of its presidency can be technology and bringing like-minded states together on the technological front. Considering the primacy of technology in both the economic and foreign policy realm, it is in India’s interest to push for an alliance between techno-democracies to regulate and govern the use of critical technologies in the future.

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The Chip4 Alliance Might Work on Paper, But Problems Will Persist

By Arjun Gargeyas

U.S. President Joe Biden recently added his signature to the CHIPS and Science Act 2022, officially enacting legislation on emerging technologies, especially semiconductors. Apart from focusing on building the United States’ semiconductor manufacturing capabilities, the legislation makes a note of the U.S. cooperating with like-minded allies to build a robust semiconductor supply chain. One such alliance is speculated to be the Chip4 Alliance, which would comprise the U.S., Taiwan, South Korea, and Japan, a partnership proposed by Washington in March. U.S. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi’s recent meeting with semiconductor industry leaders in Taiwan has accelerated conversations about this new U.S.-Asian semiconductor partnership.

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What a Taiwan Crisis Means for the Global Chip Race

By Arjun Gargeyas

With the Chinese state showcasing aggressive responses to Nancy Pelosi’s recent Taiwan visit, one begins to wonder whether another Taiwan Straits Crisis is on the horizon. A question to address in case of another crisis is the effect it might have on the global semiconductor and electronics supply chain. With the world slowly recovering from a chip shortage and the industry ramping up supply to pre-pandemic levels, can we afford another supply chain shock to the industry? With Taiwan and China being integral aspects of the global semiconductor ecosystem, how will increased cross-strait tensions affect the industry? If there is eventually a military offensive launched, what will the end result look like for the industry?

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SMIC’s New 7nm Chip Should Worry West — But There’s A Way Out

By Arjun Gargeyas

There were recent reports that Semiconductor Manufacturing International Corporation (SMIC), China’s biggest semiconductor foundry and fabrication facility has developed a chip using a 7nm technology node indigenously. The new chip, a leading-edge node (in terms of the number of transistors fitted on the chip itself) as per the TechInsights report, has been developed by SMIC for MinerVa Semiconductor, a semiconductor design company registered in Canada but with Chinese directors at the helm. The chip has been specifically designed and manufactured for the mining of the cryptocurrency, Bitcoin. The report also suggests that SMIC plans to use the process technology to develop other products at the same node in the future.

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For India-US iCET Partnership, China Is One of Many Challenges

By Arjun Gargeyas

Recently, two of the world’s established technological powers, the United States (US) and India, decided to further bolster their positions by enhancing cooperation in the technology domain. US President Joe Biden and Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s meeting resulted in the announcement of the Initiative on Critical and Emerging Technologies (iCET) to expand the existing partnership between the two states in specific strategic technology sectors. The concept of building tech alliances with the help of like-minded techno-democracies has brought together multiple states in the recent past. The iCET looks like just an extension of the existing bilateral cooperation in the technology sector between the two countries.

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What we Should Learn from China's Use of Technology as a Tool of Foreign Policy

By Arjun Gargeyas

Immense state support, coupled with the rise of domestic technology giants, has made China a major power competing to secure technological space with other powers like the US and Europe. There is also the issue of how the Chinese state has been actively promoting and exporting its technology infrastructure beyond its borders, thereby increasing its sphere of influence. This expansion of the technology-oriented Sinosphere has made other states take cognisance and try to increase their diplomatic outreach to counter China’s ever-increasing growth. But how has China been so successful in utilising technology as a credible foreign tool? What lessons does China’s aggressive ‘techplomacy’ offer to other technological powers?

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