Commentary

Find our newspaper columns, blogs, and other commentary pieces in this section. Our research focuses on Advanced Biology, High-Tech Geopolitics, Strategic Studies, Indo-Pacific Studies & Economic Policy

Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | A strong social capital is a prerequisite for cohesive climate action

By Nitin Pai

I am likely to get into trouble with many of my friends for saying this, but I think the world is making extraordinary progress towards addressing climate change. It might not be fast enough to achieve emissions and temperature targets that follow from the IPCC’s studies, but in the past 15 years, we have seen first a scientific consensus and then a global political consensus on the problem definition, followed by convergence on approaches and firm international agreements on targets and timelines. Climate activists remain unsatisfied, but for students of international relations, this kind of progress is unprecedented, not least at a time when the world lacks a stable order, technological change is causing social upheavals everywhere and hundreds of millions of people around the world have entered the middle class. Regardless of how its outcomes are judged, the mere fact that CoP-28 is happening at all is remarkable. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Moneycontrol | Reservation For Locals: Whither jobs, economic freedoms, and economic unity?

By Anupam Manur

It is both easy and tempting to dismiss the entire saga of the reservation of jobs for the locals in Haryana as one of misplaced policy action duly corrected by the judiciary. It could even be tempting to celebrate the strength of the checks and balances present in the Indian Republic. Briefly, to set the context, the Haryana government, acting on the election promise of the current Deputy Chief Minister Dushyant Chautala, passed the Haryana State Employment of Local Candidates Act, which came into effect in January 2022. The law mandates that all private employers in the state must reserve three-fourth of jobs paying less than Rs 30,000 a month for local residents. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

The Free Press Journal | Trump’s dangerous rhetoric as polls draw near

By Sachin Kalbag

Donald Trump is putting American democratic institutions and processes under severe stress, more than what he did as President between 2017 and 2020 — be it the judiciary, law enforcement or the legislature. Just this past week, a lower court judge in the state of Colorado said that the former occupant of the White House engaged in the insurrection of January 6, 2021, but that he should remain on the ballot for 2024, a move Trump’s opponents say is unconstitutional. Trump is already at the centre of series of federal and state level lawsuits on serious charges under several laws that include, among others, one that is used to try underworld criminals and large-scale white-collar crimes. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Times of India | Let’s not go crackers over bans every Diwali. Leave fireworks policy to states

By Nitin Pai

The Supreme Court has done well to refuse a blanket ban on all firecrackers in India. Its recent order reminding states to prohibit the manufacture and sale of joined firecrackers and those containing barium is a prudent one. Yet in the absence of a sensible firecracker policy, it is likely that approaching the Supreme Court for a ban will become an annual pre-Diwali ritual. How should India govern firecrackers? Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Wini Gurung Economic Policy Wini Gurung

The Free Press Journal | 2024 Polls: AI Fake News Will Damage Democracy Forever

By Sachin Kalbag

I am calling it now. In 2024, when several countries around the world — including India and the US — are scheduled to go to the polls, disinformation and fake news generated by artificial intelligence software will bring democratic systems to their knees. The damage is going to be so severe that, in the worst-case scenario, we will have reached a point of no return. Even if we somehow manage to halt the fake news juggernaut (unlikely, but let’s say we do), it will take decades to go back to any kind of normalcy. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | The techno-optimist’s agenda must heed the consequences too

By Nitin Pai

I believe technology is a unique human capacity that can continue to improve our well-being. Individual freedom, free markets and liberal democracy are remarkable conceptual innovations that have allowed our species to achieve extraordinary levels of well-being. And human ingenuity—often underrated in the face of the kind of daunting social and environmental challenges that confront us—can help us find ways out of the messy problems that it sometimes creates. That is why I am concerned about the “techno-optimist manifesto" that Marc Andreessen published last week, for it undermines the very cause it seeks to promote. Read the full article here.

Read More
High-Tech Geopolitics, Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya High-Tech Geopolitics, Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Nikkei Asia | India can get more out of nuclear power with private sector help

By Saurabh Todi

India needs a way to generate a lot more power to keep up with rapidly rising demand without adding to its already severe pollution woes. For India, nuclear energy is the obvious solution. On Aug. 31, a new unit of the Kakrapar Nuclear Power Plant -- the largest to be designed in India -- began full operations in Gujarat state. At their meeting in New Delhi on the sidelines of the Group of 20 summit last week, Prime Minister Narendra Modi and U.S. President Joe Biden discussed how the two countries could collaborate on developing next-generation small modular reactor technologies. A few weeks before, Modi talked to French President Emmanuel Macron about joint work on another emerging technology, advanced modular reactors. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Moneycontrol | G20 Summit: India takes its Digital Public Infrastructure success to the world

By Anupam Manur

Digital Public Infrastructure (DPI) has created quite a storm in the recent G20 meetings. For years, India’s soft power was confined to cricket, Bollywood, Yoga and Ayurveda. It now seems that there has been a powerful addition to this list. The Finance Minister, Nirmala Sitharaman even mentioned that the inclusion of DPI into the G20 Financial Inclusion Action Plan was the defining legacy of India’s presidency of the G20. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Hustles could yet trip up Indian startups if we don’t take due care

By Nitin Pai

Yes, I live in Bengaluru, and yes, my neighbourhood is the epicentre of India’s startup ecosystem. Still, I was struck by the manner in which the person at the adjacent table at Third Wave Coffee greeted his friend. “What’s your hustle, man?" Over the past decade, the word ‘hustle’ has made inroads into the vocabulary of the country’s tech industry. In a positive sense, it means different things: to move fast and get things done; to work hard and for long hours; to earn a second income; to do freelance work in the gig economy; or to start up a new business. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Moneycontrol | The many messages from NCAER’s report on food delivery gig workers

By Anupam Manur

Food delivery companies will use almost any excuse to prompt you to order more from them and right now it’s peak cricket season. Push notifications on your phone and take-away containers in your kitchen are piling up at a rapid rate. Unfortunately, the rate of wage growth for the delivery personnel is anything but rapid. Read the full article here.

Read More
Indo-Pacific Studies, Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Indo-Pacific Studies, Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | China’s economic troubles mark the end of its geopolitical ascent

By Nitin Pai

In the past few weeks, the world has discovered that the Chinese economy has serious problems and might already be in a crisis. The impending collapse of a real estate behemoth is causing analysts to ask if China’s Lehman moment is at hand. One-fifth of the stock of apartments is unoccupied. There are worries about how China will manage the nearly $9 trillion in off-budget domestic debt that its local governments have accumulated by building bridges and airports to nowhere. One in five young people are unemployed in a country where it takes just over two working adults to support one senior citizen. Economic growth might already be in the vicinity of 3% and might fall to 2% by the end of this decade. Over the past few years, Beijing lent developing countries nearly $1 trillion to gain global political influence. Most of that money is not coming back. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Business Standard | Doing better than a competitive exam

By Nitin Pai and Ajay Shah

The IIT JEE (Indian Institute of Technology joint entrance exam) is revered as the arbiter of merit. With industrialised coaching classes, it is less clear how the JEE selects the right people to attend an IIT. Simplistic measurement of marks in an exam is not how the entry barriers into most sensible institutions work. The high-powered incentive — attending an IIT — is damaging the learning process. We propose a two-part mechanism: A broad exam that filters for sound capability, and then randomised allocation. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy, High-Tech Geopolitics Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy, High-Tech Geopolitics Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | How to govern the AI industry must be accorded high priority

By Nitin Pai

The manner in which the world’s big artificial intelligence (AI) companies are scaring the world’s governments and asking for regulation reminds me of how incumbent telcos used to push ‘Fear, Uncertainty and Doubt’ (FUD) 20 years ago. We should suspect that the motives are similar: to use regulation to slam the gates shut for new entrants and use incumbency to acquire greater power over public policy. If OpenAI and Google are really worried that their products are dangerous and pose severe, unpredictable risks to public safety, they could stop developing them. It is reasonable, therefore, to suspect that their calls for regulation of so-called foundation models are partly motivated by the desire to lock-in their dominant market positions. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

The Times of India | Laptop licence: Why are failed policies being revived again?

By Pranay Kotasthane

In the 1970s and 1980s, a large country undertook a “market reserve” policy. The idea was to restrict imports, protect the infant computer industry, and give it a chance to become competitive. But after nearly two decades of restrictions, the country was far from achieving its desired goal of becoming a major international player in computers. Smugglers prospered as they found ways to get around the trade barriers. The local players that benefited from a closed market were so inefficient that many vanished as soon as the winds of globalisation swept in the 1990s. That country is not India, but Brazil. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Hindustan Times | An echo of licence raj in laptop import curbs

By Anupam Manur

India’s abrupt decision to restrict the import of laptops and personal computers, though with a three-month lag, is a throwback to the 1970s, when such policies were commonplace. Presumably, the aim is to give a fillip to domestic manufacturing and is probably targeted at China, which accounts for 75% of the total $5.33 billion worth of laptops and personal computers imported by India in 2022-23. However, the government maintains that it carried out the move for the digital security of its citizens. The reason is obvious — national security is the one accepted condition in multilateral trade treaties for imposing import restrictions, whereas protectionism is frowned upon. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

The Hindu | Do we need a radical alternative to scientific publishing?

By Shambhavi Naik

Scientific publishing is a necessary component of scientists’ efforts to establish a career in science for themselves. The process allows for scientists’ peers to enrich new findings by reviewing papers, curates research from scientists across the world, and signals the credibility of some scientific work. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Moneycontrol | Don’t rush to mimic Rajasthan gig workers law

The devil, as they often say, is in the details. And so it is with the The Rajasthan Platform Based Gig Workers (Registration and Welfare) Act 2023, passed in the Rajasthan Assembly on July 24 to nearly universal fanfare. The need for some form of social security measures for gig workers was so acutely felt that this Act is currently lauded with messianic zeal just for the good intentions behind the law. There is a good chance that other states will follow suit and therefore, a closer scrutiny can instruct areas for improvement. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Mint | Indian gig workers ought to get a well-crafted social security net

By Nitin Pai

Rajasthan’s new law governing the welfare of gig workers has much to commend it. Not only is it necessary to support India’s growing 21st century workforce, it also offers us a way to reform our 18th century labour law regime. As Takshashila Institution’s Anupam Manur puts it, the term ‘gig work’ is a misnomer in our country—for most of the people driving taxis, delivering food or household services via online aggregator platforms, that is their main occupation. Employment in this segment is growing. The Niti Aayog expects 200% growth in gig employment by 2030. Based on possibilities I see emerging from what is happening in Bengaluru, I think that is a conservative estimate. While the fates of individual aggregator platforms may rise and fall, the gig model is an important part of how India creates mass employment. Read the full article here.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

Indian Express | Internal Security in India: Violence, Order and The State reveals how most forms of violence are on a downward slide in India

By Nitin Pai

Most of us rely on social media, television, newspapers and conversations with our friends to get a sense of what is happening in the world around us. News, however, suffers from a systematic negativity bias — the bad and the abnormal get more coverage than the good and the normal. In addition, our minds tend to confuse the frequency of news items with its actual prevalence. Then there are regular moral panics and outrage cycles, all of which end up giving us a distorted perception of the state of the world, often making us anxious, depressed and despondent. Read the full book review.

Read More
Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya Economic Policy Shrikrishna Upadhyaya

The Hindu | The risk of small States’ heavy reliance on the Union government

By Sarthak Pradhan

The fiscal situation of India’s States has garnered significant attention in recent times. Despite ample data on State finances, most of the analysis is centred around larger States. There needs to be more discussion on the fiscal position of small States (i.e. States with a population of less than 1 crore). Most of these small States have distinctive characteristics that limit revenue mobilisation. Recognising these disabilities, the Constitution has provided mechanisms to address them. But these States continue to rely heavily on the Union government for revenue. This dependence creates vulnerabilities for the States as well as the Union. Read the full article here.

Read More