Commentary
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An analysis of Social Security Measures : Union Budget 2021-22
By Sarthak Pradhan
This is a draft version of the article published in Prajavani, which is accessible here.
The COVID19 pandemic and its economic impact clearly showed that India's social protection measures were not enough. An analysis of the social security measures in the Union Budget 2021-22 can help us understand the Governments' priorities. The most important questions to be asked - Has the Union government prioritised social protection in the Budget? If yes, what is the realistic outcome it wants to achieve?
Read the full draft here.
Looking beyond the Budget numbers to see if government schemes really work
Voting Technology: Time for electoral reforms
The possibility of improving the quality of leadership is the redeeming feature of democracy. Declining standards in political probity, the unrepresentative character of the elected legislatures, corrupt practices like electoral bonds are major concerns and call for reform of the electoral system.According to an analysis of affidavits of winners in the 2019 Lok Sabha elections, 43% have criminal cases and 29% have serious criminal cases against them including offences where maximum punishment is five years or more. These offences are non-bailable and relate to assault, kidnap, rape, murder, electoral offences like bribery, corruption causing loss to exchequer, and crimes against women. In 2009, it was 30% and 14% respectively, and the present figures indicate that the number of elected parliamentarians with serious offences has doubled over the past 10 years. As excuses, the foisting of false cases and the pathologies of the criminal justice system are touted to prevent reform. Ironically, a weak criminal justice system favours the perpetuation of political deceit. To expect that the narrow self-interests of political parties will let them push for electoral reform that improves leadership quality would be deluding.Read the full article in Deccan Herald
Indians have put their Republic on a pedestal, forgotten to practice it each day
It’s Republic Day. We will celebrate it as usual with a grand military parade in New Delhi, and flag-hoisting functions at government offices, educational institutions, apartment complexes and neighbourhoods. We will sing patriotic songs, honour our soldiers, listen to a speech by a chief guest and enjoy the rest of the holiday. In some of these functions, we will read out the Preamble to the Constitution aloud, a very good practice that started in recent years and one that ought to become more popular. These apart, there are some unusual developments this year with the invited foreign dignitary unable to turn up in New Delhi and uninvited farmers turning up in their thousands instead, for their very own Republic Day parade.Read the full article on ThePrint
Why the Rupee Overvaluation must be kept in check
Weaning away foreign investment from China
Over the past few years, there has been much discussion about India attracting firms that might be seeking to exit China. Initially, these conversations were driven by changes in the Chinese economy, such as rising labour costs, shifting focus towards new technologies and declining productivity. There was a sense that these changes, coupled with improving infrastructure and ease of doing business in India, would make India an attractive option.
Cautious Optimism
The welcome to the new year was wishfully cheerful, riding more hope than evidence. Economic data that is coming out is still mixed, yet hopeful. But to have survived the year 2020 is itself a cause of celebration.Read the full article on OrissaPost
DCGI’s Covaxin ‘approval’ is political jumla. It reinforces idea of Modi’s Atmanirbhar Bharat
Other than to the highly credulous, it is pretty obvious that the Drugs Controller General of India’s ‘approval’ for Bharat Biotech’s indigenous vaccine candidate, Covaxin, was announced for extra-scientific reasons. It has neither completed Phase 3 clinical trials, nor has the safety and efficacy data been published. In fact, the drug regulator has not so much approved the vaccine for general public use, but rather granted permission for “restricted use in emergency situation in public interest as an abundant precaution, in clinical trial mode…”.
Again, other than to the highly credulous, it is pretty obvious that such an ‘approval’ was announced alongside that of the Serum Institute’s Covishield for political reasons. The Narendra Modi government did not want to lose the opportunity to score political points: that India has produced an indigenous vaccine under the leadership of Prime Minister Narendra Modi.
Having survived 2020 is in itself a cause for celebration
The welcome to the new year was wishfully cheerful, riding more on hope than on evidence. The economic data that is coming out is still mixed, yet hopeful. But to have survived 2020 is itself a cause for celebration. Disease, death, economic destruction and yet resilience, fortitude and determination is how most people experienced the last year. Most of the country, for much of 2020, was in lockdown mode, which was progressively diluted.The lockdown is still operative in many States. It has affected jobs, income and livelihoods, especially in the informal sector. The plight of the urban migrant workers in the country is now well known, and was even mentioned by the Prime Minister in his radio address. The rural economy turned out to be their saviour. The adverse economic impact on small and medium businesses has been severe. The exact detailed economic picture of India’s vast informal sector becomes clear only with a lag.Read the full article in the Free Press Journal
The big convergence challenge that we face in this new decade
We enter the third decade of this millennium amid rising doubts, risks and worries about technology, markets, nationalism, democracy and the world order. The unqualified enthusiasm for them that we saw in the past two decades has given way to concerns about what their right dosage is, and what, if any, are the antidotes should we have willy-nilly overdosed on any of them. This is good. Societies that try to answer them truthfully and thoughtfully can expect to emerge stronger and more successful in 2030. For public policy, as for investors and value creators, the opportunities and risks lie at the intersection of technology, health, society and geopolitics.Read the full article in The Mint
India, China and the Proverbial 13-year gap that is widening
Why blocking Sci-Hub will actually hurt national interest
Earlier this month, three foreign academic publishers sued two foreign websites for copyright infringement in a case before the Delhi High Court. Elsevier, Wiley, and American Chemical Society, among the world’s largest publishers of academic papers, wanted the court to block Sci-Hub and LibGen, the largest providers of ‘free downloads’ of their content in India. This case is important because it can have a significant impact on the broader research, academic and education environment in India.Read More on ThePrint
V-shaped recovery anticipated, but it's the human capital base of economy that needs care
Macroeconomic winds are blowing favourably as we enter the New Year. Stock markets are at an all-time high. Share price indices are up nearly 60 per cent from their lows of March. The stock market is supposed to be a harbinger of economic times to come, so clearly it is indicating a strong revival. Liquidity in the banking system is more than ample. Interest rates are at multi-decadal lows. The gap between Indian and Western policy rates is the lowest it has been in a long time. Coupled with inflation rates above 6 per cent.Read the full article on Free Press Journal
Let 2021 be the Year of Empathy
A firebrand farmer leader
Bharat Bandh — India’s slide into constitutional grey zone where politics decides right or wrong
It is nearly impossible to apply objective constitutional principles to determine rights and wrongs with respect to the ongoing farmers’ protests. And this should concern patriotic Indians.
Ordinarily, coercive public protests and today’s Bharat Bandh cannot be considered constitutional methods and would fall into the category of the “grammar of anarchy” that Dr. B.R. Ambedkar warned us about. But he qualified his disapproval of public protests and satyagraha with the condition that “where constitutional methods are open, there can be no justification for these unconstitutional methods.” Given how the Narendra Modi government pushed through the agricultural reforms in a truncated session of Parliament, and the infinite wisdom and boundless patience of the judges of the Supreme Court, the protesting farmers can reasonably argue that constitutional methods are too unreliable. But then again, how is it justified for farmers — no matter how legitimate their grievances — to block roads and hold up the lives and livelihoods of other people? Shouldn’t the law be enforced to protect the livelihoods and property of innocent people adversely affected by protests and the Bharat Bandh?Read more at ThePrint
A formidable challenge
In the last week of November, the government confirmed that India was officially in a recession, possibly for the first time in modern history. The technical definition of a recession is when the economy contracts for two successive quarters, ie three month periods.Read more at Orissa Post.
The union's nose truly in states' tent
When the prime minister announced PM Kisan, which pays Rs 6,000 per farming household per year, it was welcomed by all. It is a direct benefit transfer to those who toil to produce food for us. Where are these farmer households? They are not spread uniformly across the country. So the money from the PM Kisan goes unevenly across different states.Read the full article on Mumbai Mirror
Modi govt must sweat in Parliament to avoid bleeding on street. Farmers’ protest shows why
One lesson of civilised, constitutional politics is that the more you sweat in parliament, the less you bleed on the streets (or indeed, the jungles). The Narendra Modi government could have avoided farmer unrest and protests had it adopted a broad-based social consultation process and taken its time to put the farm bills through the parliamentary process. Yes, a number of farmers’ associations, middlemen’s lobbies, and civil society groups would have raised their voices against the changes. Yes, the Congress and other opposition parties would have opposed the bills in Parliament. But the Bharatiya Janata Party is neither short of supporters in the media and the Indian population, nor of seats in Parliament for the Modi government’s reform proposals to fail. Skipping the journey and jumping to the destination merely meant that all stakeholders in the agricultural sector received a shock instead of an explanation, a ready-made decision instead of a hearing, and, in many cases, existential fears instead of positive expectation.Read the full article on ThePrint
Water Cannons Can't Douse Their Anger
In September, the central government passed three laws to give more freedom to farmers. Mind you that agriculture is a state subject and farm policies are best left to individual states, as each state has a different mix of farmer issues and circumstances.Read the full article in the Mumbai Mirror