Commentary
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Look ahead of the current crisis to plan for an economic revival
Public sharing of home quarantine addresses a bad idea
This article originally appeared in Deccan Herald
On March 24, several WhatsApp groups catering to apartment associations started buzzing with excel files containing addresses of those who were placed under home quarantine. The source was a website run by the Government of Karnataka which contained details for all districts in Karnataka (deleted ‘purportedly’). This author was eventually able to access the website which contained approximately 30 files. It is unclear whose decision it was to make these details public. Statements from government officials indicate this was a deliberate step. However, it seems to be at odds with how sensitively matters are reportedly being handled by teams on the ground, who were informing nearby residents as needed.
Why is this a bad idea?
On March 14, a leading English daily misreported a story that the spouse of a patient who had tested positive for COVID-19 had skipped quarantine and traveled to another Indian city. There were several calls for exemplary punishment, but it later turned out that the person in question had not violated quarantine instructions at the time of travelling. Sure, certain questionable decisions were made subsequently. But we need to be aware that these are unprecedented times and no one is really prepared to deal with the situation. The fear and self-preservation instinct is apparent. But there is also a danger of uncontrolled reactions by the general public in such a scenario.
Over the last few days we have also seen disturbing reports of airline crew and healthcare professionals facing a backlash at their respective places of residence. Videos have also emerged showing people physically abusing fellow citizens for coughing in public and not wearing masks. Regrettably citizens from the North-East have been subject to racial abuse.
This is why it is ill-advised to publicly share this kind of information. While individual names and phone numbers have not been shared, an address is enough to enable targeting (changed slightly). In information security terms, it can be considered a form of doxing people (publicly posting personal information). The individuals living at those addresses have been put at risk of being on the receiving end of discriminatory and abusive behaviour. While some of them may have violated their quarantine instructions, treating all of them as potential criminals is not an acceptable response (changed slightly).
Unwittingly aiding the flow of information
Another important aspect to consider is the role of unaffected individuals in circulating this information. The Bengaluru version of the list was doing the rounds on WhatsApp since the evening of March 24. And it continued to be circulated by people even if they disagreed with the practice or could not vouch for its authenticity. As expected, the link to the website eventually made its way onto Twitter and was shared by users with a large number of followers. Others shared it with the intention of being helpful and sharing information. Unfortunately, in such a situation, these actions only aided the virality of the information.
There is also a tendency to believe that since the information is already out there, individual sharing actions do not matter. However, when the information in question can put someone else at risk, we must consider the downstream implications of that individual action too.
What is the right way to react?
Understanding how to react to minimise the risk to others in such situations is important. Although it is tempting to share such information with acquaintances or Tweet about specifics while disagreeing with the action, it is necessary to consider if the unintended consequence of the action.
If the intention is to raise awareness about the lack of sensitivity, then the act itself can be highlighted without sharing the location/source of such information. It must be remembered that this action can have the second order effect of nudging others to look for it.
Another possible course of action is to reach out directly to the authorities who have made this information public. This may not be possible in all situations but can be an effective strategy. It should be noted that their actions or decisions are not always taken with bad intentions. Those responsible may react positively to such interventions if the risks are clearly highlighted to them.
Why is sharing-hygiene important?
This sharing hygiene is especially important as we see more [information disorder] flooding our lives. The large platforms where this information proliferates are attempting to take measures to tackle this but such content moderation at scale is impossible to do well. It is as much a demand-side problem as it is a supply-side problem. Passively sharing information may have more consequences than we realise. We have a collective role to play in curbing information disorder.
Is the government doing enough to fight Corona on health & economic fronts?
The events of the past few weeks have served as a grave reminder of the challenges of living in a globalised world. The benefits of globalisation and its impact on human progress can never be understated. However, every once in a while, through global financial crises or through pandemics such as the one we are currently witnessing with COVID-19, we are also reminded of its perils. What started in Wuhan, China, in late 2019 has within a few months, impacted over 267,000 people in 185 countries, unfortunately killing more than 11,000 people as of 22nd March 2020 already.The economic and social impact of this pandemic will only unfold over time but the early signs are not comforting. An estimated 25 million jobs are likely to be lost due to the COVID-19 crisis, pushing millions more into underemployment and working poverty. With supply chain disruptions impacting almost every sector including Information Technology, Manufacturing, Entertainment, Travel, and Retail, stock markets across the world have witnessed their worst performances since the 2008 global financial crisis. Global income is expected to shirk by as much as US $ 2 trillion in 2020, with developing economies alone bearing as much as US $ 220 billion of the impact. The resulting economic shock and looming financial crisis is expected to push the global annual growth below 2.5% in 2020.The full article is published in and available on The Quint
If India has to control coronavirus pandemic, it must contain 4 other contagions as well
The infodemic and the behavioural contagion feed off each other, and higher levels of social anxiety exacerbate the process. Similarly, the psychological and economic contagions reinforce each other and are in turn amplified by informational, behavioural and viral contagions. The complex interactions among five contagions make it much harder to contain the spread of the coronavirus that triggered this cascade. This why a governmental response focused on public health alone (with some information management thrown in) will not suffice.Just like there are war cabinets during wartime, the multiple pandemics call for a pandemic cabinet. If there ever was a time for the cliched whole of government approach, it is now.Read more
Saving Our Own: COVID-19 Presents Challenges and Opportunities in Technology
With the pandemic existing at this scale, state capacity alone may not be enough to respond effectively. Struggling in the face of an invisible threat, states have to co-opt technology to augment their arsenal for a long-haul fight against coronavirus.The unprecedented spread of the COVID-19 outbreak is overwhelming healthcare systems across the world. In less than three months, the virus has impacted 177 countries or territories (including cruise ships) infecting over 2,30,000 people and killing over 11,000. The rapidity of community spread has left policymakers and bureaucrats scrambling for ways to bolster an overworked healthcare system. Another impending concern is of people who are struggling to adjust to a self-isolation way of life.With the pandemic existing at this scale, state capacity alone may not be enough to respond effectively. Struggling in the face of an invisible threat, states have to co-opt technology to augment their arsenal for a long-haul fight against coronavirus.There are three phases in which technology can be effective - one in the detection of COVID-19 positive individuals; second in enforcing quarantine conditions and finally on facilitating the non-infected individuals to stay-at-home.Technological developments of the last few decades are helping the testing regime that has been currently applied for COVID-19. There are two stages for detection: thermal screening that we see at airports or public places and the confirmatory test. The thermal screening is a crude process - it can only identify if someone has a fever. While the confirmatory test usually determines if the virus is present in the sample by searching for the virus’s RNA.However, this depends on an adequate amount of virus being present in the sample which further depends on the way the sample was taken. An alternative way to test for COVID-19 is to identify antibodies that the human body makes in response to the virus. This is a better method because antibodies can stay in the body long after the infection is over and therefore can be used to determine a history of infection.The first serological tests based on antibody testing are now being made available. These tests will make identifying susceptible people easier and hopefully reduce the ambiguity brought on by the other methods.Quarantine and self-isolation seem to be a difficult way to contain viruses, even celebrities have chosen to defy quarantine, setting bad examples for the general public. China, one of the world’s most technologically advanced societies, was quick to adopt self-isolation and asked its residents to stay indoors.Through AliPay (one of the most popular mobile apps in China), the Chinese State has attempted to regulate the movement of its people. The idea is that based on a number of factors, each person’s app is going to be assigned a QR code to signify a risk of exposure. The code itself has three categories; green - unrestricted movement, yellow- self-quarantine for a week, and red - self-quarantine for two weeks. The system is being rolled out nationwide and is going to make it extremely hard for people to go around town without having a code.There are concerns with these measures, such as privacy violations (though some of the data being collected is not permanent in nature, for instance, location data). But it has unintended but anticipated consequences. In China, people were not informed about what variables their QR codes were being calculated. So people who were returning home from work and had their codes turn red were not allowed entry in their apartment complexes and were exposed to a higher degree of risk. Or for people departing high-risk areas having their codes turn red meant they could not get on flights or take exits on highways. Yet effective quarantine measures are required and the compromise on privacy may be essential to ensure wider public health. In India particularly, this appears to have been brought on by public behaviour itself endangering public health should be a crime, and safeguards against such lapses should not be undermined.Finally, technological innovations need to help individuals working from home maintaining social contacts. There hasn’t been a lot of discussion around how extended periods of isolation could impact mental health. With longer work-from-home durations and quarantine, there is a significant chance that we might be looking at increased cases of depression. Communities being isolated at this level is unprecedented, and if the situation continues like this for a longer period, people will miss physical contact, social validation, and also the endorphins from a gym session. This is a gap that tech can and may need to address if things continue the way they are.Given the anticipated long-term effects of this viral outbreak, we are going to need technological interventions to curb it as soon as possible and help us adjust to a new way of life in the long term.Shambhavi Naik is a research fellow at the Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru. Rohan Seth is a policy analyst at the Takshashila Institution, Bengaluru. Views are personal.This article was first published in News 18.
Wrong to say coronavirus has doomed world economy
The pandemic, like any other economic event, will throw up its own set of winners and losers; best if the debate around the economic impact of coronavirus builds a measure of nuanceThe global conversation about the coronavirus pandemic has focussed on a few things. Firstly, that the outbreak of the virus can largely be considered a Black Swan event, which is an unanticipated problem with severe unintended consequences. Secondly, that there is a need to ‘flatten the curve’ so that healthcare systems can cope, and thirdly, that its impact on the economy and markets everywhere will be debilitating and that everyone is a loser here.As far as the economic impact of the coronavirus pandemic goes, there are two problems with the common assessments making the rounds: One, they are an understatement. The global economy is doing badly and will continue to do so for the foreseeable future. The pandemic will play into this existing matrix in ways that are not entirely clear as yet. Two, when we abstract the analysis to the point that our main takeaway is that everything is going to hell, the analysis itself loses most meaning and its nuance. In short, while it may seem callous to put it like that, the pandemic will have its own set of winners and losers.The tech industry should be Exhibit ‘A’ for this hypothesis. If you ask yourself for a moment who the biggest winners from this pandemic might be, a preliminary response from many will be that tech giants like Facebook, Google, Apple, etc. will stand to gain. Things are not quite as simple as that though. Apple, for instance, is not in the running because their supply chains run through China and are likely to be severely impacted. So is the case for Samsung. Basically, any company with a complex supply chain that may or may not run through China is going to be hit.We need to also consider the fact that we are in the middle of the biggest work from a home experiment in history. Zoom, the US-based video conferencing service, for instance, has gained a lot from this, without actually making a lot of significant changes. Since the beginning of December 2019, its stock price has gone up by $40 to about $ 115 (from approximately $70). It peaked earlier in March at about $125.Moreover, tech platforms, per se, are better suited to navigating this outbreak as compared to more traditional firms. They have fewer components in their supply chains relative to, say, a phone or a tablet. People are likely to depend on the conveniences offered on their screens, given that travelling is going to be restricted. Spending more time at home also means slipping more frequently into distractions of social media and online streaming.Now let’s turn to another aspect of the current economic conundrum. The spread of the virus does not bode well for the gig economy. The current situation puts workers at a huge risk of exposure, especially in developing countries like India. It is not effective to self-quarantine in informal settlements. It is hard to stock up on essentials or food when most of one’s family is living hand to mouth and it is near impossible to provide for families when the small/medium businesses temporarily shut down.Most huge platforms rely on the gig economy to sustain themselves. Let’s take the case of Amazon. While it has its product and management teams, which work from their HQ and other regional offices, there is a huge part of the company that is run by the gig economy, i.e., people working in warehouses and drivers who deliver the products to the consumers. It needs to see to what extent companies with such business models are affected by the current disruptions.Let’s turn to another industry that is likely to be impacted -- Entertainment. Box offices across the world are facing huge losses and will continue to do so. Cinema halls and popcorn machines have already been facing threats from online streaming. Netflix and HBO have been winning golden globes and Academy awards, giving the ‘traditional’ film industry a run for its money. Enter coronavirus and the release dates for most movies have been postponed. The longer social distancing and self-quarantine last, the worse it is going to get for cinema halls. People are likely to get more hooked to streaming and a significant percentage might end up realising that they can do just fine without making that extra trip to the hall.The world is a net loser from coronavirus, there are no two ways about that. But while many industries will be impacted and a large number of firms are likely to shut down due to the lack of demand, this is not reason enough to make abstract, generalised claims about how the economy is going to suffer.We live in a complex, interconnected world where effects are not equally bad for everyone. Let us treat this as a complex global economic event and accord it the nuance it deserves. It would be best to avoid broad generalisations when speaking of the economic impact of the coronavirus and build our beliefs on reason, not dogma.(Rohan Seth and Nischitha Suresh are analysts with the Takshashila Institution)This article was first published in Deccan Herald.
Xinjiang in danger of severe Covid-19 outbreak
The World Health Organisation (WHO) declared the Covid-19 outbreak a pandemic this week. That designation implies an epidemic that has spread over several countries or continents, affecting a large number of people.The Chinese government initially tried to conceal the severity of the problem by hiding facts about the outbreak, which in turn contributed to the spread of the virus across the world. But the state machinery swung into action on January 23 by quarantining Wuhan and other cities in Hubei province, where the outbreak was first observed. Some cities on the east coast were also partially locked down as the number of cases increased.Though a lot of effort has gone into containing the spread of the virus across China, the situation in the westernmost Xinjiang Uighur Autonomous Region, which is one of the most vulnerable regions for reasons detailed below, remains largely ignored and underreported.
COVID-19 & China: Crisis to opportunity
Three events last week underscore how the narrative has shifted around China’s handling of the COVID-19 outbreak. The first of these is Chinese President Xi Jinping’s visit to Wuhan, which coincided with the country’s health authorities confirming that the outbreak had peaked there. Second, the World Health Organisation’s declaration of Covid-19 as a pandemic for which the epicentre had shifted to Europe. And third, the Donald Trump administration’s initial ham-handed response to the outbreak in the US.Read the full article in Deccan Herald here
China-style lockdown not the only way to deal with COVID-19. Democracies, learn from Taiwan
The manner in which the Chinese government managed the COVID-19 outbreak is being favourably compared to the general mess that Europe and the United States have made of it so far. Now that China seems to have contained the initial outbreak while Western countries are struggling with a massive surge in cases, Beijing’s propagandists and apologists have started asserting that the Chinese one-party, one-leader “system” is superior to a messy liberal democracy that is incapable of acting with the coherence, speed, and efficiency required to contain the pandemic.
But here’s a strange thing: prominent Chinese individuals who criticised President Xi Jinping and the Chinese “system” for botching up the initial response to the Wuhan outbreak have been arrested or mysteriously disappeared. In contrast, Americans, British, and Europeans are criticising their leaders, governments, and public health policies without the smallest risk of arrest or detention. If the Chinese system is really as good as it is cranked out to be, why the need to silence the critics?
Why the current pandemic may perhaps be the world’s last one
Viruses can be deadly but are pretty simple things. They are composed of a few proteins and a small amount of genetic material and can be completely characterized fairly easily. Back in 2003, it took a few months for scientists to fully sequence the 29,727 nucleotides of the SARS virus genome. In comparison, it took around a month for Chinese scientists to do the same for the SARS-Cov-2 coronavirus, the genome of which is comparable in size to the SARS virus. That’s because the technology used for sequencing improves with advances in computing power, and today’s machines are orders of magnitude more powerful than the ones we used two decades ago. This is also why testing a patient for coronavirus today takes a few hours and costs around ₹5,000.Read more
India can fight COVID-19, but only if the private sector is allowed to step in quickly
It is important to say this because thus far, the task of addressing the COVID-19 has been delegated exclusively to the government. Almost all activities, from airlifting Indian nationals, screening arrivals at airports, testing samples, quarantining and treatment are carried out by the government. While this will be effective if the number of cases remains in the current order of magnitude, the government’s facilities alone will not be sufficient if the number of cases rises 100 times or more.The good news is that India has a private healthcare sector and R&D capability that can be used in the fight. The bad news is that we’re not letting them.If we even have a few lakh suspected cases, the government’s resources will fall short of what is required. The right time to think about the capacity required to handle such a massive crisis is now. The single most important thing for India to have a national response — as opposed to a government response — is to enable the private healthcare ecosystem to play an appropriate role to complement the government’s efforts wherever possible.Read more
The prospect of an oil stimulus in the time of Covid-19
Three major players in a market are trapped in a brutal price war. Investors stand to lose billions of dollars unless a price floor is fixed, and there is a fear of bankruptcy. Authorities are hoping that a price floor cartel succeeds. Does this ring a (telecom) bell? Well, it’s not what you think. This market is oil, and the three players are the US, Saudi Arabia, and Russia. The US has private shale oil suppliers, while the latter two have state-owned oil companies. Over the weekend, the price of crude dropped precipitously toward $30 a barrel, after the Saudi-led oil cartel failed to agree on production cuts with non-member Russia. US shale oil players, who were not a party to the negotiations, were hoping for a cartel agreement since their very viability depends on higher oil prices. Anything below $50 is bad news for them, especially for the junk bond investors who have financed these shale oil wells. The Saudis, with a vengeance, decided to up the ante, increasing their oil production and offering customers steep discounts, thus effectively trying to muscle into the market share of Russian oil companies in Europe. Russia, which is not a part of the Organisation of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (Opec), refused to play the ball on production cuts because its oil firms seemed bent on hurting US shale oil producers. The price war might very well be a proxy manifestation of a geopolitical showdown in West Asia between a Russia-Iran alliance and a US-Saudi one.Read More
The scientific argument for marrying outside your caste
Bengaluru: As India becomes more globalised, there are intense deliberations in orthodox families on the merits of getting married within their own community.
The obvious go-to-market strategy is to ask for family recommendations and visit websites tailored for the community. This is typically followed by patrika and gotra matching, and some family meetings.
But as our scientific understanding of diseases and other heritable attributes increases, we have to question whether continued insistence on community-based marriages is relevant.Endogamy is the practice of marrying within the same community, and genetic diseases arising out of a limited gene pool are a major consequence of it.There is a growing need to reflect on these practices and determine what’s the best way to choose a life partner. (Read more)
Coronavirus outbreak, N95 masks, traditional medicine and other burning questions
The coronavirus outbreak originating in China has made its way across the globe, with nearly 12,000 confirmed cases. There are three confirmed cases in India as of 5 February 2020. There is considerable panic as countries race to contain its spread through screening and quarantine measures. Companies and universities have pressed into action; trying to figure out better diagnostics and possible treatment for the new virus.The ambiguity of the virus’s origin and fear created by its rapid spread and lack of cure has incited a deluge of misinformation. So here are four questions you really need to know about this outbreak.
How deadly is the viral outbreak?
The virus is the latest member of the coronavirus family to jump from other animals to infecting humans. The scientific community has already determined the genetic sequence of the virus. We now understand that every infected person can infect up to 4 people. The virus spreads through the air, enveloped in tiny droplets released as a person sneezes, coughs or talks. Spitting in public places or coughing without covering one’s mouth are basic hygiene fails that need to be avoided. (Read more)
Wuhan and the Need for Improved Global Biosecurity
The Wuhan coronavirus, or nCoV-2019, is likely to become a pandemic in the coming weeks, having already infected at least 17,000 and killed some 400. The World Health Organisation has belatedly declared a public health emergency, while at least 45 million Chinese citizens remain under lockdown. Despite botching up the initial response in Wuhan, authorities in China have since been fast to share information on the outbreak and have even invited overseas experts for help. A draft sequence of the genome has also been published online and scientists from across the world have shared their analysis. Despite wild speculation about the origins of the Wuhan virus there’s absolutely no evidence it is anything other than a naturally mutated pathogen – indeed, it would make no sense for a state to produce a bioweapon that has both high communicability and low lethality.However, future threats to global health will come not only from natural viruses like nCoV-2019 but also from man-made pathogens. Mechanisms that aid early detection and encourage transparency need to be institutionalised quickly as a combination of breakthrough technologies and human malice raise the threat from bioweapons. Major states like China and India are well-positioned to champion this institutionalisation given their high vulnerability to bioweapons attacks and their shared desire to shape global institutions. (Read more)
China gives us hope why coronavirus won’t be as deadly as SARS in 2003
The outbreak of the novel coronavirus infection emanating from the wildlife and seafood markets in China’s Wuhan city reminds me of the severe acute respiratory syndrome, or SARS, epidemic that hit the world 17 years ago. I lived in Singapore at that time, and it was a traumatic experience.
The SARS virus, like the Wuhan coronavirus, originated in China and spread around the world through air travel. The Singapore economy depends on tourism, trade, and business travel, so closing the borders was not an option. When it emerged that the SARS virus transmits through humans, it looked like Singapore would be severely affected. The city-state is densely populated, most people take crowded buses and trains to work, and a lot of places — offices, shopping malls, schools, public buildings — are centrally air-conditioned. We went through weeks and months of anxiety and paranoia.
How can society help keep Indian women in science, get young girls interested in the field?
Research institutions around the world on average have 28.4 percent women employees. Indian research institutions have been unable to make even this poor benchmark. Women make up only 14 percent of 2.8 lakh scientists, engineers, and technologists in research and development institutions in India. In the past few decades, while the number of women enrolled in science higher education has steadily increased, the number of women entering the science workplace has not shown a commensurate rise. This suggests that women are either not willing to continue in science jobs or are not being provided suitable opportunities to do so.
Pros of gender-balanced in scientific campuses
There is a school of thought that women bring a distinctly different perspective to science than men. Studies have shown that diverse groups have more collective intelligence than groups made up of men only. The implication is that gender-balanced teams are likely to be more productive and “smarter” as compared to all-male teams. It, therefore, makes sense that we would like more laboratories to try and achieve an equal male: female ratio. (Read more)
Genomics data banking could revolutionise healthcare, but comes with unmitigated risks
You read a brochure that promises to tell you what diseases you are likely to get in the next decade. Obviously you want to lead a longer, healthier life. So you send a cheek swab to the clinic and await test results. Thankfully, your reports are largely all-clear except a minor mutation which would likely pre-dispose you to diabetes in your 40s. Your doctor dutifully prescribes diet control, exercise and a pill.
A few months later, you hear that your cousin has got convicted in a hit-and-run case. Unwittingly, you played a role in the conviction because it was your DNA that led the police to identify him. Your chances of getting diabetes may be lower, but your cousin’s chances of proving himself innocent are nil. Sounds unbelievable? (Read more)
IndiGen project — how mapping of genomes could transform India’s healthcare
The Council of Scientific and Industrial Research (CSIR) has launched an ambitious project, IndiGen, to sequence whole genomes of diverse ethnic Indian population to develop public health technology applications.
The CSIR last month announced sequencing of 1,008 Indian genomes as part of the project. It aims to complete sequencing of at least 10,000 Indian genomes over the next three years.
A genome is an organism’s complete set of DNA. It includes all genes, which house the DNA, and chromosomes. The genome contains all the data that is needed to describe the organism completely — acting essentially as a blueprint. The genome can be understood through the process described as sequencing. (Read more)
DNA Technology Bill: Why the Standing Committee Has Its Work Cut Out
[Co-authored with Murali Neelakantan]With a decade-long history of deliberations, the DNA Technology (Use and Application) Regulation Bill 2018 is no stranger to the halls of Parliament. It is currently being scrutinised by the Parliamentary Committee on Science and Technology, after it was reintroduced in the Lok Sabha earlier this year.The Bill seeks to regulate DNA laboratories and proposes to establish a DNA databank, although there are already many unregulated DNA databases with various authorities. There seems to be widespread support for use of DNA evidence, primarily on the understanding that (i) it is “new scientific technology” used widely around the world; (ii) India needs modern weapons to fight crime; and (iii) similar laws exist in other countries, including the US, the UK, Ireland and South Africa, for helping convict criminals and acquit innocent persons.However, there are three broad areas of concern – capacity, training and consent – that authorities need to iron out before unleashing the DNA Bill in India. (Read more)