If India Wants Political Stability in Colombo, It Must Act in Interest of Sri Lankan People

On May 9, the largely peaceful anti-Rajapaksa protests in Sri Lanka took a violent turn. In the resulting violence, nine people died, including two policemen, with the agitating crowd burning down the home of Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa. Subsequently, while the Prime Minister resigned, his younger brother Gotabaya Rajapaksa remained the President. Facing nationwide civil unrest, the government imposed a curfew on May 9 and issued shoot at sight orders on those engaging in violence. Though the appointment of Ranil Wickremesinghe as Prime Minister has provided a semblance of political stability in the country, the protesters have refused to budge from their demand for the resignation of President Gotabaya.

Why India should pull Sri Lanka out of China’s ‘debt trap’ and take it closer to the US

On 12 April, Sri Lanka declared the default on all payments on its $51-billion external debt to buy oil and agricultural commodities. The alarming level of food scarcity in the country has mobilised the population to demand the ouster of President Gotabaya Rajapaksa with the slogans ‘Go Gota Go’ and ‘Go Home Gota’ echoing on the streets. His decision to impose a public emergency on 1 April intensified protests further, leading to its quick revocation four days later. On the same day, former President Maithripala Sirisena-led Sri Lanka Freedom Party decided to withdraw its support from the ruling coalition led by Mahinda Rajapaksa. Till now, 42 members of the Sri Lankan parliament have withdrawn their support from the ruling coalition, including 12 from the Rajapaksas’ Sri Lanka Podujana Peramuna, leading to the government’s loss of majority.

As Nepal Turns to the Indo-Pacific, China Worries

On March 27, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded his three-day trip to Nepal. During his visit, he held meetings with the country’s top leaders while also taking the time out for a hiking trip to Shivapuri. In his meeting with Foreign Minister Narayan Khadka on March 26, Wang outlined China’s “three supports” to Nepal. These include Chinese support in “blazing a development path” suited to the country, help in “pursuing independent domestic and foreign policies,” and participation in “Belt and Road cooperation” to “speed up [Nepal’s] development and revitalization.” Similarly, in his meeting with Prime Minister Sher Bahadur Deuba, Wang reiterated China’s support to safeguard Nepal’s “sovereignty and national dignity, exploring a development path suited to its national conditions, and pursuing independent domestic and foreign policies.”

Indians Don’t Believe in a China-led, Multipolar World

As the war continues to rage in Europe, India is maintaining an unrelenting focus on its Indo-Pacific engagements. Thus, on March 19, Prime Minister Modi hosted his Japanese counterpart Fumio Kishida for the latter’s first bilateral visit since assuming charge in October 2021. In the joint statement released after the meeting, both sides affirmed the “commitment to promoting peace, security, and prosperity in the Indo-Pacific”. Even the mention of the ongoing conflict in Ukraine occurred in the context of war’s “broader implications” for the Indo-Pacific region.

Similarly, though the joint statement released after a virtual meeting of the Indian and Australian Prime Ministers on March 21 mentioned the conflict and humanitarian crisis in Ukraine, the emphasis remained on “broader implications for the Indo-Pacific.” Following the virtual summit, the Indian Foreign Secretary confirmed in the press meet that the two countries agreed that the Ukraine crisis should not divert the Quad’s attention away from the Indo-Pacific region.

Why China is Talking about a 1952 Pact and ‘Equal Negotiations’ with Sri Lanka

On January 9, Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi concluded his five-nation Indian Ocean trip with his departure from Sri Lanka. During a 24-hour visit to Colombo, Wang launched the celebrations for the 65th anniversary of China-Sri Lanka relations by inaugurating the promenade of the Colombo Port City, a flagship Belt and Road project. Wang’s talks with the Sri Lankan leaders took place in the backdrop of possibly the worst foreign exchange crisis in the Island’s history. Thus, Foreign Minister G.L. Peiris commenced the talks by reminding the visitor that the proverb “a friend in need is a friend indeed, is the eternal theme of bilateral relations”. Similarly, Prime Minister Mahinda Rajapaksa thanked China for “always lending a helping hand” during Sri Lanka’s time of urgent need.

Has Russia Wrecked American ‘G-2’ Plans?

On January 10, the U.S. and Russia held an “extraordinary” session of the bilateral Strategic Stability Dialogue in Geneva. Unlike the previous two meetings, held in July and September last year, the recent meeting occurred against the backdrop of increasing tensions between the West and Russia. With the growing threat of a Russian invasion of Ukraine on the table, the recent talks included both the issue of strategic stability and a Russian demand for security guarantees from the United States. While much focus has been given to NATO’s eastward expansion as a prime driver of Russian insecurity, it may instead be the Kremlin’s fear of an emergent China-U.S. “G-2” being manifested in Russian strategic behavior.

China’s Bare-Chested Turn To Sri-Lankan Tamils Is India’s New Headache

The arrest of more than 60 Indian fishermen by the Sri Lankan Navy last month created a political stir in Tamil Nadu. The state’s fishermen are continuing their indefinite strike from 19 December, with a plan to stage a ‘massive rail roko’ agitation if all the arrested fishermen are not released. Writing to External Affairs Minister S. Jaishankar, the state’s chief minister M.K. Stalin has also asked the Narendra Modi government to ensure “fishermen’s safety and the right to livelihood” from the intimidatory tactics of the Sri Lankan Navy.