The Print | India should steer clear of an ‘Asian NATO’. Its strategic flexibility is at stake

Japan PM Shigeru Ishiba’s proposal for an Asian NATO stems from his belief that the absence of a collective defence alliance could lead to wars. It’s a step too far for India.

By Yusuf T. Unjhawala

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Firstpost | Putin’s North Korea visit making China uneasy

Vladimir Putin’s visit to Pyongyang has sent a signal to Beijing that Moscow has other allies too.

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The Indian Express | Warmer Moscow-Beijing ties are a chilling signal for New Delhi

Russian Foreign Minister Sergey Lavrov’s recent visit to China was brief but significant. On the face of it, Lavrov was in Beijing to set the stage for an anticipated trip by President Vladimir Putin in May. To that end, he met China’s President Xi Jinping and Foreign Minister Wang Yi. Amidst the usual diplomatic pleasantries, three outcomes that emerged are particularly important from India’s perspective. Read the full article here.

Charting a Course for India’s Arctic Engagement

India published its finalised Arctic Policy document on March 17. The document casts a wide net and explains India’s priorities, objectives and course of action for the Arctic in impressive clarity. A thorough examination reveals that the policy has benefited from the Government of India publishing a draft and inviting comments in January 2021. A clear imprint of similar publications from around the globe, most recently by the European Union (EU) is also visible.

In objective terms, the policy has almost all the elements of a good strategic publication, with largely no unaddressed areas of relevance to India’s national interest in the Arctic region except when it comes to encouraging private space sector companies. As the policy lays out, India’s interest in the Arctic is primarily scientific and meteorological, pursuits, which have direct implications for India’s development goals, economy, agriculture and food security.

India’s Aloof Response to the Ukraine Crisis

Read the Full Text on East Asia Forum

By: Artyom Lukin, Far Eastern Federal University and Aditya Pareek, Takshashila Institution

Moscow’s decision to recognise the Lugansk and Donetsk People’s Republics and then launch a ‘special military operation’ in Ukraine has created a tricky balancing act for India. Delhi’s immediate reaction to the crisis has been restrained, neutral and focused on ensuring the safety of its nationals inside Ukraine.
Several hours after Russian military action was underway, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi held a phone call with Russian President Vladimir Putin. Modi urged that all violence should be ceased immediately and reiterated India’s emphasis on diplomacy and ‘honest and sincere dialogue’ between Russia and NATO.

On 26 February 2022, the United Nations Security Council held a vote on a resolution demanding that Moscow immediately stop its attack on Ukraine and withdraw all troops. India was among the three countries to abstain, along with China and the United Arab Emirates. India’s UN envoy expressed his ‘regret that the path of diplomacy was given up’. India also abstained on a procedural resolution to call for an emergency session of the UN General Assembly.

Modi also held a phone call with Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky, in which he expressed ‘his deep anguish about the loss of lives and properties’ but refrained from directly criticising Russia.

The India–Russia relationship is officially characterised as a ‘special and privileged strategic partnership’. The entente between Moscow and Delhi dates back decades. Though the bond is no longer the de facto alliance it once was in the 1970s and 1980s, Moscow remains Delhi’s an important strategic partner, on par with the United States. The two nations don’t have any significant areas of disagreement and both share a fundamental interest in a multipolar balance of power in Eurasia.

India relies on Russia for the majority of its imported military equipment, nuclear submarine technology and some vital space faring technology. A highlight of India–Russian defence cooperation has been the US$5.43 billion deal for the S-400 air defence system, which Russia began delivering in December 2021. Russian-made weapons are critical to India’s ability to counter its main external threat — China.

There are also perhaps ideational factors behind India’s reluctance to censure Russian actions toward Ukraine. The conflict over Ukraine may have some parallels with India’s historic traumas. The fragmentation of the Soviet Union that led to the birth of an independent Ukraine was not dissimilar to the partition of the British Raj, which produced India and Pakistan, two culturally close but still antagonistic entities. Putin characterises the modern state of Ukraine in antagonistic terms as an ‘anti-Russia’ project.

Western powers portray the conflict as a struggle between an imperialistic autocracy and a young democracy, but Delhi may not buy this narrative. India has always been somewhat sceptical about the US-led discourse on liberal democracy. This remains the case despite the Westernisation of Indian elites. Under Modi, India has been evolving in an illiberal and ethno-nationalistic direction. It is an open secret that India wants to maintain its sphere of influence in parts of South Asia.

India does not have many significant security interests in Europe, which helps explain its relative aloofness to the Ukraine crisis. But Delhi does have some stakes in Ukraine. For instance, the Indian Space Research Organisation’s semi cryogenic engine is being developed based on Ukrainian supplied RD-810 designs and many Indian navy warships depend on Ukrainian gas turbines, including those under construction at Russian shipyards. So India has a national security stake in not alienating Ukraine.

Another reason for India’s repeated calls for the cessation of violence, de-escalation and resolving the situation through diplomacy is high energy prices, which may negatively affect India’s stressed economy.

Cutting Russia Off SWIFT Could Accelerate Beijing-Moscow Alternative Payments System

On February 24, the United Kingdom (UK) announced its “largest-ever” economic sanctions on Russia, and so did the United States (US). As the sanctions get stricter, shared economic interests and geopolitical considerations are likely to deepen economic relations between Beijing and Moscow, including the prospect of building an alternative financial system.

The signs of deepening Russia-China economic relations are evident. In an interview with a Russian newspaper amidst Russia’s recognition of rebel-held regions in Eastern Ukraine, China’s ambassador to Russia, Zhang Hanhui, spoke about possibilities of furthering cooperation between Moscow and Beijing, especially in energy, space, financial cooperation, and high-tech weapons systems. These are also the sectors targeted in the recent round of sanctions by the UK and the US. This is explicit signalling by Beijing of its support for Moscow.

Russian energy industry makes new social media connection

Russia’s energy industry currently brings in a major chunk of state revenue and is tied to common prosperity and employment in the Russian economy. Although a willingness eventually to phase out hydrocarbons now exists, the idea is to switch to exporting greener sources of energy such as hydrogen instead of just watching business decline.

Read the full article on Asia Times

Northern Sea Route: hopes and challenges

The feasibility of a year-around Arctic transshipment route, a longtime dream of Russia, is still unclear

Media reports and commentaries are hailing the Russian LNG (liquefied natural gas) carrier Christophe de Margerie’s latest voyage along the Northern Sea Route as a watershed. The voyage has brought Moscow’s dream of year-around access to the NSR into the limelight again, and speculation is rife about whether the prospect is closer to reality than previously thought.However, a few less-reported aspects can shed more light on the NSR’s feasibility as a transshipment route.

Sister ship didn’t emerge unscathed

The Nikolay Yevgenov, another LNG carrier and sister ship of the Christophe de Margerie, departed a day later on the same route but suffered damage to its propulsion system. The ship took a detour through the Suez Canal and is in dry dock in France for repairs. The incident has diminished the sensational claims that the Arctic is now open for year-around safe voyages without heavy icebreakers clearing the way.Read the full article on Asia Times

As Chorus of 'Chinese Virus' Rings Loudly in India, Is the Stage Set For an Info-Ops Tussle?

This article was originally published on The WireUsers of Indian Twitter, for want of a better term, will not have been able to escape the term ‘Chinese virus’ trending on the platform in the form of different hashtags over the last 10 days.What seemingly started off as agitprop by the American right has transcended boundaries and resonated in India as well, echoing sentiment that Beijing and the Chinese should be severely penalised for the COVID-19 pandemic.This sentiment was backed by what appeared to be some coordinated activity on Twitter from March 24 onward, around the time of India’s lockdown, all with the purpose of taking aim at China.#ChineseVirus19, #ChineseBioterrorisn, #Chinaliedpeopledied and #ChineseVirusCorona were some of the hashtags being used in favour of this narrative around March 24 and March 25.Read more

China and the Kerch Strait

The UN Security Council held an emergency meeting on Monday to discuss escalating tensions between Russia and Ukraine following Sunday’s incident in the Kerch Strait. According to the Ukrainian Navy, Russian forces fired upon its vessels, injuring at least three sailors. Russian forces then reportedly captured three Ukrainian vessels along with 23 crew members. Moscow claims the vessels had entered Russian waters, failed to follow laid down protocols, and engaged in “provocative” actions.During Monday’s meeting in New York, Nikki Haley, the US’s UN representative, described the incident as a case of “reckless Russian escalation” and “aggression.” European Council President Donald Tusk has assured that the EU stands united behind Ukraine. In contrast, China’s deputy permanent representative to the UN Wu Haitao called for “restraint” and emphasised the Chinese approach of “objectivity and impartiality” in relation to Russia-Ukraine tensions. Wu further added that “China respects the sovereignty and territorial integrity of all countries including Ukraine.” Wu’s remarks underscore the delicate balance that Beijing is seeking to strike in terms of deepening its ties with Russia while distancing itself from Putin’s foreign policy adventurism. In this context, Sunday’s incident presents Beijing with a set of pitfalls and opportunities.Read More